CONNACHER OIL AND GAS LIMITED (CLC.TO) Buy,…

CONNACHER OIL AND GAS LIMITED (CLC.TO)

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BUY

One of the smaller sized companies that have a producing oil sands project. The brought it on stream on time and within budget. Are continuing to construct the second phase of the project. Very few companies of their size have this visible upside in the next few years. The other side is that they have quite a bit of debt that was incurred to build these projects. This will not be a problem when they bring in the second project.

DON'T BUY

Basically heavy oil. Production is looking to be ramping up but would prefer other names. Have had challenges.

WEAK BUY

Probably about the only way to play the oil sands with a junior. About 10,000 production and going up another 10,000 very shortly. Potential of a takeout. Fairly valued right now.

COMMENT

One of the few successful emerging oil sands producers. Currently producing about 10,000 BOE's from their 1st phase. Just gone to steaming the 2nd phase (Algar), which is supposed to be another 10,000 BOE's. Just filed an environmental impact statement to get approval for 44,000. Have been able to build on time and on budget but always have a higher leverage than what the market is comfortable with. He uses it as a trading stock.

BUY

Just completed construction of their 2nd phase of growth, their 10,000 barrels a day of their SAGD plant and are just starting it up now. Demonstrated a good track record of been able to do this on time and on budget.

BUY

One of the very few junior oil sands companies to have built their project on time and on budget. They use SAGD, which is lower-cost and easier to start up. Just finished the 2nd phase and it will take them a year to ramp up. Has a lot of growth potential.

BUY

Well diversified. Have a fairly new refinery in the US that is quite profitable.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick March 13/09. Up 138%.) Convertible bond 4.75% due to thousand and 12.

DON'T BUY

Struggled a lot because they did a couple of dilutive deals in a horrible market when they needed cash. Prefers Southern Pacific Resources (STP-X), which has a property next door and trades at half the valuation.

TOP PICK

Oil sands producer. In less than 2 weeks, their new Algar (?) project will be coming on and a month later they commission and then start steaming and in about 3 months get production so that next year production will have pretty well doubled. Trading at about 6X NAV.

HOLD

Hasn't been one of the stronger sectors on a weekly or monthly basis, but has had a nice uptrend since July. Can't see any reason for concern on a short-term basis. Unless that broke through the line significantly, wouldn't be too worried.

RISKY

Attractive. It could continue to build out its oil sands presence and it is a potential acquisition target.

BUY

Had a beautiful base and then the moving average came down and it started to turn.

BUY

One of the few Junior companies that are producing. Brought their Great Divide project phase 1 into production on time and under budget. Will be building phase 2 and doubling production. With good oil prices they should be up to turn around their debt.

HOLD

Have oil sands going for them. With the current higher oil prices they will be making a lot more money. On track with their expansion, which should be up and running on time. If you are bullish on crude this is a Hold. Debt is a little higher than what she likes.

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CONNACHER OIL AND GAS LIMITED (CLC.TO)