CONNACHER OIL AND GAS LIMITED (CLC.TO) Buy,…

CONNACHER OIL AND GAS LIMITED (CLC.TO)

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BUY

Good oil sands project. A lot of leverage both financially and operationally to oil prices so has done well. Big challenge has always been to bring oil sands into production and bring in cash flow to reduce financial leverage. Not without risk.

BUY

Likes it because they have a refinery and refinery capacity is one of the issues in the energy complex. Average age of refineries is around 89 years and new ones are not being built in North America. Have some pretty good assets. Working with some fracing to increase production.

HOLD

Small cap oil sands play so is volatile and very reactive to oil prices. Balance sheet needs financing. Did a flow-through in Dec, which he participated in. Also did a couple of asset sales. Expects the stock will go to $2 if oil prices go to $90-$95 and stay there.

BUY

Just bought some. More optimistic on crude pricing and this one has the most leverage of any Canadian oil company to crude. Debt to cash flow is about 10X but expect the company will clear some assets and bring it down to about 8X.

COMMENT

Been a frustration. Relatively high level of debt and some disappointments at Pod 1, its first foray into oil sands development. Would Sell if you can get out at a small profit.

BUY

Quite a bit of sensitivity to price of oil and they are a heavy oil producer. At $90 oil, they have $1.75 a share value. Their leverage ratios are coming down as production is ramping up. Decent upside if you believe in oil upside.

SELL

Higher than average debt level. Doesn’t have huge production. Not bad but can’t see any catalyst and would be inclined to Sell.

COMMENT

Not a bad bet, but if you are looking for a junior oil sands company, consider Southern Pacific (STP-T) which has the same valuation but no debt.

DON'T BUY

Stop at a $1.15. Resistance at $1.40 Volume is drying up.

SELL

Not fond of this one. Focuses on companies operating in the top quartile of operating metrics and performance in oil sands. A fair amount of debt. Doesn't see the refinery in Montana as being strategic. He would prefer BlackPearl (PXX-T) or Magma (MXY-T).

HOLD

(Market Call Minute) High levels of debt

DON'T BUY

Their debt is very, very high. It will be difficult for them to grow because of cash flow paying the interest.

BUY

Likes it. Reasonable entry point here. Have ability to grow their production in the oil sands.

BUY

A good stock but not a screaming buy. It is reasonably fairly valued. They have to bring on some more production at Great Divide. One potential catalyst is that it is a logical acquisition down the road by a large foreign player.

BUY

Has had an ABC correction and the C did not make a new low. Oil/gas has already been through a corrective period so you should be okay with this one.

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CONNACHER OIL AND GAS LIMITED (CLC.TO)