Canfor Corp (CFP.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Canfor Corp (CFP.TO)

13.81

-0.04 (0.29%)

as of Jun 4, 2026, 8:00:00 pm Market Open.

112 watching

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Dec 26/20, Up 81%) He sold mid-last year, too soon. Housing proved to be very strong. He would buy it again if lumber prices pulled back again.

BUY

Allan Tong’s Discover Picks During the depths of the lockdown, the price of lumber in the CME futures has tripled since April 1 to nearly touch US$828 (per thousand board feet) just recently. There are no signs yet to show a slowdown in demand. Meanwhile, Canfor is still only halfway to its all-time highs above $32, last touched in May 2018. Read BBY Stock, HD Stock and CFP Stock: Top 3 Stocks for the Homebody Trend for our full analysis.

TOP PICK

Underlying price of lumber is at all-time highs. Stock is still at 50% below all-time highs. Remarkably strong home-building demand. Scores high on price momentum and value. (Analysts’ price target is $18.71)

RISKY

The balance sheet is fairly weak. Back in 2019 there was a movement to buy this company by another. Nothing ever happened and since then it has moved back up to book value. When he looks to the US and seeing housing builds going up, he thinks it is helping lumber stocks like this one. Historically it has tended to peak at twice book value. If everything continues to work out and US housing continues to flourish this stock has room to go. Technical support is about $13.25. If this level were to be violated he would think it will fall further. He worries that high unemployment in the US could scuttle the housing market.

BUY

You want to buy cyclical at the end of a recession, but you have to be careful and selective. You don't want the ones with the most torque to recovery. CFP-T would be one to select. It will be around.

HOLD

The bid for it failed because shareholders rejected it. The stock fell since then and has started to recover. It is neutral for him. We are seeing strong home-building in and low interest rates so it should benefit. You want to see some earnings come through as the cycles comes up.

TOP PICK

Lumber prices and stocks were under a lot of pressure last year. Today you have strong US housing and demand. This is an attractive entry point. A bid to take it private was withdrawn and the stock dropped. (Analysts’ price target is $16.38)

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Jim Pattison's bid to go private has ended. Buy on weakness; offers solid, long-term value. Pattison sees value. But be patient with this one. With the rejection, expect overreaction to the downside. Buy around $11-12.

BUY

It is going to be a close call as to whether the tender results in their favour. There have been dissenters. BC has had it really rough in the forestry industry. The US housing market is picking up so you are seeing lumber prices picking up. They are the largest lumber producer and the lowest cost producer.

RISKY

It is in the middle of a takeover, where it has agreed to be taken over by a majority shareholder. Not all the shareholders are happy about this. It is being sold at cycle lows. At $16 per share today it was an 80% premium to where the shares traded the day before the offer. There may be some arbitrage value, if they can get $16.50-$17.00, but there is not much upside from here.

DON'T BUY

Lumber prices are trending down this year and we're closer to the bottom. This is also a seasonal stock with great Decembers-Januaries, so maybe buy in the fall. Home building remains decent in the U.S., too. Forestry is a tough space and highly cyclical.

DON'T BUY

OSB-T vs. CFP-T. Looking at a long term chart of lumber futures, we are getting back to levels from when the economic levels were much weaker. Individually he is not sure that the prices are washed out. There may be more downsides in the more economically sensitive names.

BUY

Forest stocks have really been taking a hit. You could probably open a position today, as sentiment and last couple of quarters have been negative. Indications that US lumber pricing and new home construction are starting to pick up. Lumber is at trough prices, so that's usually a good time to get in.

DON'T BUY

Back end of slowing US housing market. He owns Western Forest Products (WEF), which has high-end finishes, and selling into Asia, so demand on pricing is better; almost 4.5% dividend; small debt vs. cash. Whereas Canfor is cyclically linked, so you don't want to own it at this point in the cycle. Costs are up, so margins are squeezed. Wouldn't be looking at these levels.

DON'T BUY

West Fraser vs. Canfor He owns neither, as lumber prices are weak and not rebounding in the spring when they usually do. They're trading near book value. The upcoming quarter will be weak for lumber. Be cautious here, but start doing your homework on them.

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Canfor Corp (CFP.TO)