Stockchase Opinions

Derek Warren Canadian Apartment Properties CAR.UN-T TOP PICK May 26, 2025

Most broadly balanced across the country, though it is more focused in Ontario. Largest, so it's the most liquid; very easy to get in and out of. Selling older properties with higher energy and maintenance costs. Loves the cycle of selling old, get the capital, pay down debt, buy newer properties. Buying back stock.  

Caveat: peak rents will be coming down. The number to watch for is the apartment turnover beyond the current 16%, and this should happen over the next couple of years. It's so cheap, no need to wait to dip in. Yield is 3.70%.

(Analysts’ price target is $50.58)
$42.000

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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WEAK BUY

The REIT world is very interest-rate sensitive, as is your house. Watch your real estate exposure across your net worth. If you didn't own a house, an excellent play. Low vacancy, largest Canadian provider.

WATCH

It's at the bottom of the trading range. He's watching it. It last bottomed in 2023 then bounced off. Many REITs like this are rangebound which bounce up and down. He likes such stocks--you know the top and bottom of a stock. CAR.UN may be reaching a bounce. Maybe. If you own it, hang on and see.

DON'T BUY

Tilts toward the higher-end of the market, seeing more softness than others. Highest exposure to GTA, where there are pockets of new supply. Rental growth stalled in Toronto; investors are more likely to chase markets with more growth such as BEI.UN or KMP.UN.

DON'T BUY

REITs are very correlated to interest rate expectations. Last year, he took a close look at this and was not enthused. Immigration is gone, no longer a tailwind, and its dividend is merely okay. Long-term, office REITs have the best outlook in REITs.

TOP PICK

Given Trump, you need defense like this. Low immigration and rent control weighed on CAR.UN. In a recession, people will be evicted, and in a better economy, those vacated units will be priced higher. A sustainable business model. Now, the price is attractive. 

HOLD

One of her 2 picks in the space, as warehouse and residential growth outshine retail REITs.

DON'T BUY
CAR.UN vs. CHP.UN

CHP.UN is far more defensive. Great portfolio, with about 20% in industrial warehouse space (a sector he's quite bullish on). If you want defense, this is your better bet.

With CAR.UN, you have to think about affordability and how defensive is the tenant base and the cashflow from that base. Great portfolio, with higher concentration in Ontario -- something to keep in mind if you're concerned about tariffs and loss of manufacturing jobs in southwestern Ontario. See his Top Picks.

BUY

Phenomenal, long-term track record of owning great buildings, managing them well, and increasing rents over time. The only REIT he owns, so that's his pick in the sector.

BUY

Owns it for income. Despite stock slide, demand for rental housing still outstrips supply. Government announced decreased immigration and international student numbers. Lots of condos coming onto the market, condo market's been very weak, and this is causing rental rates to soften. But CAR.UN tends to be outside urban areas and have larger apartments.

Rent control had an impact. Turnover was very low. Selling a lot of older, rent-controlled properties. Attractive, low-priced condo market should benefit them as people may feel they can now make the move to a condo. Nice yield just under 4%.