Mark CarpaniCitigroup Inc.CTOP PICKNov 16, 2010

Likes for the long term. Big selloff today is hitting all financials, probably something to do with this afternoon's Fed decision. Good holding long term. Valuations are getting up there, but still making a lot of money.

The company has turned around and is approaching its better-managed peers. The CEO has done a fantastic job. The stock could be higher, but they are investing in their future. The turnaround is going well.

The US banks are only okay. They have around 7% total returns. Citi is the turnaround story that's finally turning around. BAC is a more stable. Citi has a more global footprint. He wouldn't buy either. Valuations are a little rich. You will get stable returns, though misses at earnings from high expectations. Are better opportunities elsewhere.

US banks offer more value today than Canadian ones. Potential for corporate tax rates to come down is why US banks have had such strong performance. More deregulation helps, too. Still a bit rich relative to growth.

See his Top Picks, for an idea in the private equity space.

The CEO has cut costs and rationalized the bank. It made an intraday high today.

Fourth-largest US bank, with global footprint as well. Latest quarter beat on revenue, best in decades. Earnings up 56%. Hit profitability target ahead of schedule. Trades below book value.

If management keeps executing, the re-rating story has room. Higher interest rates are putting pressure on it right now.

Q4 EPS up 56%, wealth was the biggest driver, investment banking up 17%. PCLs are pretty tame. Still lots of room for improvement. See if you can get it ~$115.

Of the two, he'd prefer BAC. However, both are distant runners-up to JPM.

Still a turnaround story. CEO has been simplifying the business -- cutting costs and focusing on strongest franchises. Strong quarter, beat on revenue and earnings. Outperforming peers. Cheaper, with more upside potential (but more risk if turnaround stops working).

JPM is one of the largest US banks, the gold standard. Leading across all divisions. Consistently delivers some of the strongest returns in the industry. Just reported strong quarter, record trading revenue, earnings up 13%, revenue ahead of expectations. Pulled back on slightly higher expense guidance. Higher quality name, trades at a premium (for good reason).

She's sticking with JPM, but C is a reasonable choice if you like the turnaround angle.

It is a conglomerate bank and the most under-appreciated US bank. For the past many years it keeps getting knocked down after showing some strength. The new CEO is the first person to re-organize it. The money trading business provides liquidity transfer to every major corporation in the world. It is the only access for 90 or more companies and this is not replicable. It is a great business and has been building this for years. Other positives include improving margins.             Buy 22  Hold 4  Sell 0

Maybe a bit over its skis. Q4 was impressive, with earnings up 56%. Improving story, has come a long way. At tail end of divestitures, so global imprint is getting smaller. Macro concerns, as with all the banks.

Compound annual growth profile still 11%. Trading ~9x PE for 2028, a bit less for 2027. Don't buy on this spike, but look for $118.

Having a bit of a renaissance under current CEO. Likes it very much because it's undervalued. 

He owns this and JPM. Bought Citi because it was so undervalued. It's come a long way, more left in the tank. Banks will do less well in a softer economy, but they're safer than ever.

US banking sector had a downdraft on worries of credit problems. But private credit issues aren't with the banks -- since 2008-2009, banks can't lend to those types of businesses.

Leave some $$ in your technology sleeve to allocate to one of the end users -- an industrial (TT) or big US bank (JPM or Citi) or retail/logistics (WMT or COST).

They report Tuesday. It will probably rally the most among the banks next week. It has great momentum. The street loves it.