Stockchase Opinions

Martin Hubbes, CFABlackBerryBB.TOPAST TOP PICKFeb 15, 2011

(A Top Pick Feb 18/10. Down 12.77%.) Good value and he sees good upside growth. Market is not properly valuing the international growth that they have been putting up. Focused too much on the US where it has struggled more. The cash flow supports a much higher valuation.
$64.54

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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WATCH

Hats off to them for their last quarter. They're moving into car security software seems to be gaining traction as earnings rise. It's had a good run recently and the PE has really expanded, but growth remains single digit. Interesting and one to watch, but volatile.

WATCH

The stock has stabilized and their software is now being used in cars. Wants to see more sustainable growth to make a decision.

DON'T BUY

Effectively a security company now, and its security is very good. He'd want to see a few more years of substantial wins. He'd pass.

WEAK BUY

Interesting stock. YOY revenue growth of 15%. Price targets have moved up. Still some upside.

(Analysts’ price target is $9.65)
DON'T BUY

Has had a bit of a turnaround, and numbers are starting to back up the story. A very different company, now focused on 2 software businesses. Embedded in vehicles globally, now turning its sights to AI and robotics.

Recent rally driven by NVDA deal. Fundamentals look better, but execution still has to keep up. She'll watch from the sidelines. If owned, take some profits.

SELL

Software only, with some good offerings. Canadians have a soft spot for it, but it's an also-ran. Better places to put money, such as a cheaper OTEX or something with more of a moat. Take your $$ and look elsewhere.

SELL ON STRENGTH

Cybersecurity and car technology are both solid, long-term businesses, but not dynamic. He sees little growth. Disappointing, but wait for a bump to sell.

HOLD

Software geared very much to the automotive industry -- mainly infotainment but also autonomous driving platforms. Has done extremely well. QNX software embedded in 255M vehicles around the world. Room for growth. 

If you own it, stick with it. Buy some more ~$6.40, and a final third around $6 (doesn't think it'll go below that).

(Analysts’ price target is $8.60)
DON'T BUY

They provide back-end software in hundreds of millions of cars, plus they have a strong cybersecurity business. They aren't growing that quickly. Trading at 30x PE. Still not super cheap.

PARTIAL SELL

It popped recently, but it's not a good chart. Trim in tax-loss selling, if you hold.

WAIT

For this one, he's looking at the very right side of a 1-year chart. You can see the basing, but what you want to see is a breakout. Could be a swing trade, but doesn't really have enough movement to do that. Could go sideways forever, or break to the downside. Don't buy until you see that breakout.

His book Sideways goes into this strategy in detail.

DON'T BUY

If you want to be in tech, you're looking for more growth than this provides. Not a robust revenue pipeline. A lot better companies out there such as NVDA. See his Top Picks.

WATCH

Seems to be better managed now. Focus on software in autonomous and electric vehicles. On top of that, number of lucrative partnerships around the world. Interesting, doesn't own, but is getting close. Doesn't think it will be a double from here.

(Analysts’ price target is $7.00)
WEAK BUY

Shares have fallen to what their patents and technology are worth. It won't go out of out of business; there remains demand for their technology. it could be a meme stock again.

RISKY

Like a lottery ticket. Talk of splitting up the company. Who knows where the bottom is, but you could write a put lower or buy a call higher.