ATI Technologies (ATY.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

ATI Technologies (ATY.TO)

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TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Aug 9/05. Up 29%.) Likes the sector. Right now it's at quite a low which just came out of a big head and shoulders.

DON'T BUY

Thinks it has an X-Box halo. If you took this away, with where the earnings are, the balance sheet and the interest rates, his model price is $15.77. An 18% negative differential.

BUY

Had a rough year. Nvidia (NVDA-Q) has basically run away with the market. Back on track with their new products. Shouldn't lose any more market share and have cleared their inventory problems. This is an industry that goes through these kinds of rotation between companies. Fairly risky, volatile business. Well positioned for the next 3/4 months.

DON'T BUY

In a great space. They kind of messed up. They were late in their launch in the high end product so Nvidia (NVDA-Q) ate their lunch. They need to expand their gross margins. There's a recovery plan in place. Almost full value now.

BUY

A good entry point. A market that will continue to grow and will do well for a long time. The worst is behind them. Have a new deal with Intel. Fairly reasonable stable environment, but there can be dramatic swings in market share. This one has been taking a beating lately.

DON'T BUY

Not crazy about them. They are in a dog fight with Nvidia (NVDA-Q).

WEAK BUY

The new line of chips they are developing seems to be progressing and are much further along in the consumer product process than Nvidia (NVDA-Q). A pretty good opportunity, but his model has it ranked very low and he owns it as a short term speculative trade.

DON'T BUY

Has been selected by IGT (IGT-N) to power their gaming machines which is a nice deal for ATI. Has been paring back on his holdings as it has been getting hit on the high end by Nvidia (NVDA-Q) and on the low end by Intel (INTC-Q). Coming out with their new chip pretty soon and hopefullly it's good.

SELL

Underperforming its peer group. The graphics market is a pretty volatile part of the market.

BUY

A market share war between themselves, Nvidia (NVDA-Q) and Intel (INTC-Q) and that tends to swing very quickly up and down. The valuation at this point is quite attractive. A short term risk as they are ramping a new product into production. Delays could hurt them. Moving into new areas.

DON'T BUY

Don't buy technology stocks because they're cheap. Trades around 10 or 11 X earnings. Nothing fundamentally wrong with it. The question is what's going to drive it.

TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Apr 27/05. Down 24%.) In a trading range and can't seem to break out. AT the bottom of the range now.

WAIT

Has a model price of $21.62. Thinks the stock will stay at its currrent price for awhile. Suffering from negative earnings revisions last quarter. Hopefully they'll have another good quarter.

BUY

An interesting play. The graphic accelerator market used to have a lot of competitors, but is now down to Intel (INTC-Q), ATI and Nvidea (NVDA-Q). This one is a long term survivor. They are trying to branch out into more consumer oriented graphics. Have had a bit of a hiccup here. New chip is about to be launched.

SELL

Get out of this stock. Had rallied from 2003 to 2004. Made a top distribution and gave enough time for a lot of professionals to get out. Then broke down to about $18. May have a little rally to around $17.

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