Athabasca Oil Sands Corp (ATH.TO)

Valuation is compelling, but offset by weak sector sentiment involving global macro economic concerns, tariffs, possible downturns. Trades at a very cheap 3x enterprise value over EBITDA, with 12% FCF yield. Watch the technicals and the macro trends for a turnaround.

Current oil prices in the low-$60s/high-$50s are attractive. Accumulated these stock during weakness, not when they rip higher. We won't see massive growth in oil. You can buy a tranche now.

No debt. Roughly $134M net cash. Business model is defendable down to $50 oil. Purish-play, oil sands name. Very clean story. Modest growth, 50+ years of stay-flat inventory. Residual free cashflow dollars are being used to buy back shares. In March alone, bought back 2% of shares outstanding. Management team is underestimated, has done a fantastic job. Gives you exposure to better days ahead for oil. No dividend.

Buy any dip. They will modestly grow production over 5 years and buy 68% of shares at the current oil price; at $80 they could almost privatize. At $70 oil in 5 years, they will free cash flow at the current share price. Has 50 years of stay-flat inventory. At flat oil, will go from 3.9x cash flow this year, 3.2x in 2026 and 0.3x in 2029.

Has sold some shares, but still owns. At current oil price, company able to buy back shares. Debt free company that is hitting all target metrics. Great management team will good long term outlook. 

Proves the strong correlation between meaningful share buybacks and stock price performance. Not a $10 stock again, but sees $8.50 two years out.

Very well run, decades of inventory, debt free. Aggressively using free cashflow to buy back stock. A 3% weighting for him. Target price of about $7.

Correction over the past 2 months in price of oil and stocks. Price of oil has bounced back, but not the stocks. Now in a holding pattern, with support around $5.25 and resistance $5.75. He sold as he saw the correction unfold. In his universe, other energy stocks are more highly ranked right now.

Great company, would recommend buying. Cyclical due to nature of oil prices, but strong assets. 

Well run company with good assets. However, owns shares in other energy companies with higher upside. 

They were the first in this sector to reach zero debt, and they heavily bought back shares, which helped raise the share price an outperform.

He sold all shares after making huge profits. He sees 10% upside. Would buy again if shares fell a lot or if the oil price jumped.

Trades at 11% free cash flow yield. Disciplined, he sold and took profits, though realizes this could be a mistake. They have two large projects that could increase production later. Management have done a great job.

Strength in energy stocks. Higher energy prices good for bottom line. Strength in stock good for momentum investors. Expecting oil to remain above $80. 

Likes recent spin-out of assets with Cenovus Energy. Would recommend holding stock.