Eric Nuttall Athabasca Oil Sands Corp ATH-T TOP PICK Sep 29, 2023

Trades at 11% free cash flow yield. Disciplined, he sold and took profits, though realizes this could be a mistake. They have two large projects that could increase production later. Management have done a great job.

They were the first in this sector to reach zero debt, and they heavily bought back shares, which helped raise the share price an outperform.

He sold all shares after making huge profits. He sees 10% upside. Would buy again if shares fell a lot or if the oil price jumped.

Well run company with good assets. However, owns shares in other energy companies with higher upside. 

Great company, would recommend buying. Cyclical due to nature of oil prices, but strong assets. 

Correction over the past 2 months in price of oil and stocks. Price of oil has bounced back, but not the stocks. Now in a holding pattern, with support around $5.25 and resistance $5.75. He sold as he saw the correction unfold. In his universe, other energy stocks are more highly ranked right now.

Very well run, decades of inventory, debt free. Aggressively using free cashflow to buy back stock. A 3% weighting for him. Target price of about $7.

Proves the strong correlation between meaningful share buybacks and stock price performance. Not a $10 stock again, but sees $8.50 two years out.

Has sold some shares, but still owns. At current oil price, company able to buy back shares. Debt free company that is hitting all target metrics. Great management team will good long term outlook. 

Buy any dip. They will modestly grow production over 5 years and buy 68% of shares at the current oil price; at $80 they could almost privatize. At $70 oil in 5 years, they will free cash flow at the current share price. Has 50 years of stay-flat inventory. At flat oil, will go from 3.9x cash flow this year, 3.2x in 2026 and 0.3x in 2029.