Athabasca Oil Sands Corp (ATH.TO) Buy, Sell…

Athabasca Oil Sands Corp (ATH.TO)

10.55

-0.05 (0.47%)

as of Sep 17, 2026, 1:34:42 pm Market Open.

407 watching

COMMENT

Their leverage is the sore spot for this company. They have a note coming up and they do not have the cash right now. The company is working on the debt issue and trying to unlock restricted cash. If you are a super bull on oil, then you could try but there are other names to own if you think oil will remain status quo.

WATCH

They pushed their debt to come to term in 2022. An ultra-high torque and leverage stock. If there is an oil shortage and oil price rises to $60, it can be a great play.

DON'T BUY

Down 95% since recommended? This is a volatile sector and his recommendations have changed over the past year. There were many bearish issues that caused the stock to decline. Under $60 WTI they do not generate enough cash flow. They also have $450 million debt repayment due in February 2021. He can't bring himself to buy this now. There are better opportunities out there.

COMMENT

ATH vs HSE vs MEG? The clear stand out is MEG, who is 55% hedged at $59 oil prices. ATH has a high cost project with Hangingstone and is burning cash, although they have enough liquidity for the next 9 months. He would never own HSE, because of their ESG issues. All bets are off for all of them if $25 oil prices remain in 2021.

DON'T BUY

They do have a partial hedge for 2020 revenues, but they are severally challenged in this price environment -- now having negative cash flows. You have to believe in $55-$60 oil prices to see this do well -- its effectively a call option on future oil prices now.

RISKY

A smaller cap stock, so he is a little leery. He also thinks they tried to roll out debt to 2027 that has created some headwind. If you believe in $60 this is a screaming buy, anything less than that it is questionable in its ability to generate positive cash flow. He would prefer MEG-T instead.

DON'T BUY

It is a heavy oil play and needs a lot of capital. They have not created any shareholder value since going public. MEG-T is a preference.

COMMENT

You can get into it now. This must wait for the big oil names to rise, before this does. Doesn't see much downside (it's fallen so far), though it could take time for it to rise.

COMMENT

A penny stock, so less institutional money driving it and more retail money, so more volatility. Bearish channel. Constructively positive on oil, and oil comes into season in February. This one is a small cap, so he's not as excited as he would be by a Suncor.

DON'T BUY

It's on the verge of breaking out--and he buys only breakouts, not before. Chart shows a downtrend, but if it break a trendline it is a possible buy.

PARTIAL SELL

They want shareholders to vote to free up restricted cash to potentially buy back stock next year. The key challenge for them is liquidity. There are no sellers and few buyers. If you are looking to buy a small amount, they offer fairly good torque. It is one of the best horses to pick.

DON'T BUY

Good, long-life production. Balance sheet is stretched, though. MEG Energy is better on the heavier oil side; it's in better shape. Problem is there are no new buyers of energy stocks. We are seeing a bit of a bounce in the past month in oil, however, which is encouraging. Don't rush out to buy ATH, but MEG, Baytex or Crescent Point. There's some risk in ATH.

HOLD

He thinks there are too few energy players to make the space relevant -- and that is true for the entire space. Only the larger players will get investor interest. He sold this at $0.84 and thought that was the low. The concern he has is that they are not using free cash flow to buy shares, but that has changed. They have taken down a field for maintenance and it is not producer like before -- he has to research this further.

DON'T BUY

The market cap has become too small for a large fund manager to follow anymore. He sold around $0.82 and it continued to sell off much lower. That scared him about the liquidity. He would need to see $60 WTI and $15 heavy oil differentials to be able to generate enough free cash flow to excite him back in. On top of that, their JV in Duvernay will require more capital outlay soon. He would look elsewhere.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Oct 19/18, Down 63%) Unfortunately the market cap has become too small for the big institutional investors to be interested in this. He expects the dividend paying energy stocks would rebound well before this one does.

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Athabasca Oil Sands Corp (ATH.TO)