Amazon.com, Inc.AMZNDON'T BUYJun 28, 2017Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Oct 22, 2026. Market Open.
Massive capex means cashflow will be negative for a bit. AI capacity buildout ahead of revenue raises execution risk. A weak consumer could hurt. Stake in Anthropic makes earnings very volatile.
Last quarter, revenue up 20% and EPS up 43%. AWS grew 37%, fastest pace in 18 quarters. Ads grew 26%. Retail margins keep improving as delivery density and automation increase (those buildouts from years ago are bearing fruit). Growing 22%, trading at 18.5x. PEG ratio's even better than GOOG. No dividend.
If you look at the S&P 500, 40% is information technology (adding META and GOOG gives you another 8%). That's almost 50% in the US tied to large-cap tech names. He can't have that high a weight in client portfolios. He went with GOOG and MSFT.
Evolved really well. Over time, generates more and more cashflow. AWS is phenomenal, but retail is less good. Company is still a well-run business. Valuation's somewhat reasonable. Strong growth profile.
One of the best retail assets in the world, and one of the best plays on AI infrastructure. Multiple's come way down. Earnings should still grow 20%. PEG ratio of 1x, a great bargain. AWS growth well above expectations last quarter, with strong margins. Long runway of earnings growth. No dividend.
(Analysts’ price target is $332.64)Not a typical value-manager favourite ;) Not cheap, but reasonable for what it is. Blowing a ton of cash on AI capex. Premier platform for so many things we want and need. Network effect of global users. Strong balance sheet. Growing operating cashflow. AWS such a growth engine. Ad revenue rolling in. No dividend.
(Analysts’ price target is $331.83)Attractive part is that it's developing its own chips plus its partnership with Anthropic (and Anthropic has been the surprise this year, delivering outsized revenue numbers). Attractive entry point. Juicier picks among small-cap names that are earlier in the cycle. Cloud services are getting more competitive, with META and SPCX joining AMZN, MSFT, and GOOG.
Great earnings (21%) for a reasonable valuation (28x forward PE). PEG ratio is decent. Much more than online shopping -- e-commerce plus AWS, digital advertising, logistics, AI services, custom chips. AWS earnings have exceeded expectations, while AWS has grown 37%. Cloud business is a leader.
Spending in AI is really paying off. Tangible results through faster cloud growth, wider AI deployment, and improving profitability and logistics in fulfillment centres. One of only 5 companies to have touched $3T in market cap. No dividend.
Is a big holding of his. The CEO assures stockholders that Amazon's large invest in AI will pay off. AWS could become a trillion-dollar business now that it's using AI; it's already Amazon's most-profitable business, far more than Prime. The CEO expects returns from AI will come faster than AWS. The CEO raised capex higher, but shares still rallied, up 4.58% today.
AWS is a real earnings engine, growth accelerated to nearly 40% (fastest pace in more than 4 years). Enormous AI spending finally translating into faster cloud growth, and translating into profits faster than the competition. Headline profit was inflated by a large paper gain on its investment in Anthropic.
Chart shows an upward trend line. Recently momentum has been coming out of the stock, and the stock has bumped up against a line of resistance. It has the appearance of a rising wedge, which is typically a bearish set up if it ever breaks below the lower limit. The lower limit comes in at around $950, and if it breaks through that, there could be a substantial retracement of the move that has taken place over the past 3 years or so. Be careful of that. We are approaching the period of seasonal strength from September all the way through to the end of the year. He would stay away from this right now.