Stockchase Opinions

Shauna Sexsmith Agrium AGU-T BUY Sep 08, 2009

Likes this with or without the C.F. Industry acquisition. Undervalued relative to Potash (POT-T) by 20%-30% on NAV and about half the PE multiple. Thinks they will eventually acquire C. F. Industry.
$54.880

Stock price when the opinion was issued

chemicals
It's the ideal tool to help you make quicker, more informed decisions for managing and tracking your investments.

You might be interested:

DON'T BUY

POT-T and AGU-T amalgamation. Mid-October is the expected merger date. He thinks it is a positive to have them together. These are such big companies that the market has discounted synergies. You will get a lower yield on POT-T after the merger which some may not like. He sees it net sideways from here. He does not like the fertilizer outlook from here. He would rather miss the first 5-10% to see if it trends up.

HOLD

POT-T & AGU-T. AGU-T was a buy and hold when he was last on. It has been kind of bouncing around. He has always liked the retail part. Also, it is global. The Texan floods could impact AGU-T with a psychological effect on investors. POT-T is starting to perk up in the US and they signed a Chinese contract. He would not sell out just because of the merger.

TOP PICK

These agricultural plays do well to the end of the year. Remember all the farmers are placing orders for the new year. Shipments into the 1st quarter between Oct 3 and Jan16 shares of Agrium have gained 13.29% and been positive in 17 of the past 20 periods. This year, shipments of fertilizers have been dismal. You could argue that weather is to blame. If commodity prices are going to pick up this year, we could see a very good period of seasonal strength. The chart is showing it starting to break out. (Analysts’ price target is $106.10.)

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Nov 10/16. Up 5%.) He bought this after the merger was announced last September. This is now an agricultural conglomerate that you get to own in Cdn$, a great thing for both our economy and Canadian investors. A global leader.

HOLD

Wasn't impressed with the Potash (POT-T) acquisition. They could have bought it for a lot less. It could be a drag for them right now, because commodity prices are still down. This is a good business in that they are able to generate good operating income, so margins are good. They are only one of 2-3 players in the space.

COMMENT

They are targeting the 4th quarter to complete their merger with Potash (POT-T). The new company is going to be called Nutrien.

TOP PICK

This has been flat year-over-year. They are merging with Potash (POT-T), so will be able to take some synergies out. Because of the regulators globally, they have to sell about a net amount of $4.5 billion of assets. They’ll probably invest some of those proceeds in the retail part of the business, which is more stable. They’ll also probably buy back shares, as well as increasing dividends in about 3 years. Dividend yield of 3.2%. (Analysts’ price target is $111.20.)

DON'T BUY

Doesn't think you should get into this right now. He did own it, but when they announced that they were going to integrate with Potash (POT-T), that changed the complexion of the company quite a bit. Doesn't think there will be much in the way of a stock price change until it has been time-tested for a while.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick July 28/17 - Up 26%.) Merged into Nutrien (NTR-T). Saw opportunity at that time. Modeling 25% EPS growth. Still upside on this name.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Dec 18/18, Up 5%) They did all that they promised. Synergy is better than expected. They have more money than expected and used it to pay down debt well. They are buying back shares. The only question is whether they can do retail acquisitions. He's sticking with it.