Agnico-Eagle MinesAEM.TOPARTIAL BUYMay 17, 2024Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Oct 23, 2026. Market Open.
One of the highest-quality gold miners in Canada. Strong operating record, very good balance sheet. Most assets are in relatively stable jurisdictions. Last quarter strong, production better than expected, costs well-controlled. Record FCF. Modest upside. Wait to add on weakness, don't chase here.
Full-year production now expected near lower end of guidance. Watch that, as well as price of gold. She owns ABX instead.
Cashflow machine. $3B or so in cash on the balance sheet. Down 34% from peak (including $30 jump from yesterday). Largest and best gold miner in Canada. Low-risk jurisdictions. Lots of growth plans beyond 2030 to increase production, much of it by expanding existing mines (means lower risk). Very conservative management. Yield is 1.08%.
(Analysts’ price target is $225.15)Gold is now trading pretty soberly on price to NAV. If you believe that the USD is eventually going to put in a high here and gold will start to assert itself (and that's the better view), then you can buy gold stocks here. Gold stocks can be fickle. Upcoming quarter may see margins pinched a bit due to higher costs, but that's already reflected in the price.
Costs have risen across the industry, and grades have fallen vs average. But we are not so sure we would call 30% YTD 'humdrum'. AEM remains cheap, with a good dividend and growth prospects. We think gold looks fine. Post-2008 stimulus, it did take gold a few years to move, and we think its post-Covid move is just beginning. Lower US rates (if/when) will help. Gold's inflation trade did not pan out well in 2022 but we do not think gold has been impacted that much by crypto. Investors still do not 'flock' to crypto during times of crisis and we doubt they will. In non-US currencies, gold has done much better. In the scenarios we would see gold and AEM moving under #1 and #3, and less so under #2 because of its hyper -sensitivity to interest rates in that scenario.
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