Agnico-Eagle MinesAEM.TOPARTIAL BUYMay 17, 2024Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 04, 2026. Market Open.
Parabolic increase in January, things got extended. He reduced then. Gold bull markets advance in stages, with corrections lasting ~3-5 months. We're now 3-4 months into that. He's been rebuilding. Next leg should be a strong leg higher.
Long-term investors should just buy and hold.
She doesn't like gold now. She bought this is in the $60-70s. Its mines are in low-risk areas, like Canada and the US. Gold used to be a safe haven, but this has recently reversed with gold now trading as a risk-on stock. The space got crowded and became speculative. Tread carefully. She is not adding her holding. AEM is the best gold stock,.
Revenues are 99% gold, 1% silver. Its 10 mines reduce single-mine concentration risk. Jurisdictions have negligible political risk. Management has well-deserved reputation of credibility.
Met production guidance in 9 of last 10 years. Beat street earnings estimates in 29 of last 30 quarters. Loves Finnish acquisition of last week. Great entry point. Yield is 0.92%.
(Note the shortish timeframe.) When a stock gets to 10% of a portfolio, they peel it back. Still first- or second-largest holding in portfolios. Only knock on it today is valuation, but that's the quality speaking. Quality is how you make $$ in the long run.
Still a great place to be.
Costs have risen across the industry, and grades have fallen vs average. But we are not so sure we would call 30% YTD 'humdrum'. AEM remains cheap, with a good dividend and growth prospects. We think gold looks fine. Post-2008 stimulus, it did take gold a few years to move, and we think its post-Covid move is just beginning. Lower US rates (if/when) will help. Gold's inflation trade did not pan out well in 2022 but we do not think gold has been impacted that much by crypto. Investors still do not 'flock' to crypto during times of crisis and we doubt they will. In non-US currencies, gold has done much better. In the scenarios we would see gold and AEM moving under #1 and #3, and less so under #2 because of its hyper -sensitivity to interest rates in that scenario.
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