Apple IncAAPLBUY ON WEAKNESSJun 27, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jul 17, 2026. Market Open.
There's a lot of money going into it. There are 2.5 billion Apple devices in the world is no joke. And they could deliver AI in them. There's room to run. He wrote a covered call at a $350 strike; if it stalls here a bit, he gets paid an options premium. He loves it. He's been in and out of it for 15 years. Likes the coming cycle: the flip phone, prospects in China. Apple Intelligence is just getting started which can help with a multi-year upgrade cycle.
Is suing OpenAI, cleaming it stole Apple's IP to build its own consumer devices, essentially naming Apple employees who left for OpenAI. But some accuse Apple of sour grapes. Then again, OpenAI faces many lawsuits of wrongdoing. OpenAI's lawsuits could distract it from winning the AI race, Apple's suit could be the first of more IP ones.
Sticking to what it does best -- strong products with high margins, expanding services, tightening up the ecosystem. Breaking out to new highs, which is a great technical structure. Technically continues very strong. Lots of cash.
Not high beta, only slightly above S&P. Not most exciting growth. Not in AI, but you can't own just AI. Bit of a premium of 34x PE for 13% growth, but not many do what it does.
He still owns it but is selling some calls to raise some income. He raised the hedge for protection of the portfolio after such a big run. It was only about $175 a year ago. Had $111 billion in revenue with 49% gross margin in the last quarter. He feels it is pretty fully priced.
Stay invested -it has an upgraded Siri. The stock went dormant for a few years. Traditionally Apple has let other groups do the heavy lifting, then taken a more mature situation and running with it...eventually owning it. It did this with music, tablets and phones. It is the same with AI but Siri has been a disappointment. They say they will advance it by co-operting with Google to use Gemini. It is a larger and larger piece of the business (30%) and very profitable with about 70% profit margins. There has been an acceleration of revenue, earnings and cash flow but the market is just starting to react to this.
Holds a big position. They get the benefit of the doubt when it comes to AI. Their AI presentation last week was vague, but was enough there to keep you interested. If you bet against this stock the past several years, you were on the wrong side of that trade. Also, it isn't spending a lot of money to chase AI. Apple will get there eventually. It will continue to move higher.
Recent event felt like cleaning house, not very exciting. Siri upgrades with Gemini are important. Price runway not all that great. When it gets around $300, he's selling 1-2 week calls to earn some income.
If you don't already own it, you can buy it here, and maybe ~$280-285; probably won't go much under $275.
AAPL has done in AI what it's always done -- let the other companies spend the $$, and then just take the resulting product. Very smart. Wait and see who makes the better mousetrap, and then score a deal with them.
Not cheap, very hard for a value investor to buy. However once someone's in their ecosystem, it's like "Hotel California" (you can never leave ;) You'll pay whatever it costs to stay there. Phenomenal products, each year revenues move more toward services (very high margins). High moat. Recurring cashflow.
Close your eyes, buy, tuck it away for a while. Iconic company that will do reasonably well.
Is -6% the past year and -19.7% this year, and has been trading sideways as the rest of tech has been roaring. The company last gave tepid guidance because of Trump (25% tariff on iPhones), and gave an adverse ruling against their app stores. The stock is out of favour, uncertain, but he will hold on. Past downturns have turned out to be buy opportunities. Trades at 28x PE, down from 35.5% at its peak last July. Their recurring service revenue now amounts to 25% of overall, and growing faster than all other businesses. AAPL has bottomed several times in recent years, bottoming at 25x PE, the last time in early April after tariffs, then quickly recovered. During the 2022 bear market, the PE plunged to 20x PE, then rebounded strongly. Since it bottomed at the start of 2023, shares rallied 93% of the time in the next 3 years. Meanwhile, the earnings growth is 14% projected this year, while the S&P is projected at only 9.4%. So, Apple deserves a premium, now trading at 28x PE vs. the S&P's 23x. Apple PEG ratio is under 2 while the S&P is 2.5, so if Apple had that PEG ratio, AAPL should sell at 35x PE and $250. Therefore, buy Apple at $180, too cheap to ignore, or 25x PE, but if it shares off the negativity, this should trade at 35x PE.