Alcoa (AA)

The one he owns. Aluminum has been depressed for so long that he sees them rebounding earlier. He started buying at $8-$9 level and has been adding to it. You have to buy it when it is wildly out of favour. They are very sound and will benefit from the auto cycle. It is a contrarian play.

Trying to form a base. It has kind of flat lined for well over a year. Normally it does well from the end of Oct until Feb. You are way too early to be a buyer at current levels. You may have an opportunity at the end of Oct.

Trading like a lot of the metals and mining type of stocks. In a base formation and showing some support at around $8. He would want to see a breakout of that base. Chart shows a little bit of a series of declining highs with a relatively flat support level at $8. This would be called a descending triangle and a breakout to the upside is very, very bullish and one to the downside is bearish.

One of the world’s low cost aluminum producers. Aluminum is a growth metal because it is light, therefore every new generation of automobiles and planes that are trying to get more fuel efficient end up using more aluminum. The US is going to go through a change with more efficient automobile legislation so there will be a big increase in demand. You have to buy this one when it is not making money and sell it when it looks cheap because it is selling at a low PE. It may take a couple of years.

Not big on commodity stocks in general. The problem with aluminum is that China is a net exporter of aluminum. You want to own commodities that China is a big buyer of and hopefully influences the price of.

If there is improvement in the economy it should do better. Aluminum is not one of her favourite commodities. Prefers copper and met. coal. She only owns TCK.B-T

He would stay away from this one. Too subjected to the price of the commodity and too subjected to the production levels of areas that we don’t really control.

Last quarter was pretty good and it will benefit from an expanding economy. Thinks the market feels like he does, nothing wrong with that but nothing to get too excited about either.

Problem with aluminum is that there is never a tight supply. There is no shortage of raw materials so it is very hard for them to have pricing power. This company itself, sadly, has a history of disappointing when it comes to earnings. They are often the 1^st to report and often the 1^st to disappoint. Numbers really don’t show that things are getting a lot better in the near-term.

Commodities are not in favour right now. There is a weakness across the spectrum. A rebounding economy is good for the metal stocks but there is no shortage of aluminum right now. An energy heavy commodity that requires a lot of energy. If you own and want to get out, tomorrow is the day you have to sell.

(Market Call Minute) Broke lows today. One of the weakest in a group you want to be careful of.

Company is really captive to the aluminum commodity. There is a lot of Chinese production coming out, which challenges the price. He would prefer something that he has a little more control on.

Has very strong seasonality. Last year he shorted it in the summer. Currently the stock is way oversold. He doesn’t have enough technical evidence to indicate a seasonal downtrend again this year. Normally does very well from November right through until April. Way too early for playing Long and needs more technical evidence before playing Short.