PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 22/24, Down 20%)

Sold in September. We've been in a freight recession for 3 years, longest anyone can remember. Came out with a mixed quarter. 

BUY

Pleased with performance. Continues to like. Runup this month due to contract to deliver 50 aircraft. Pure play on private aviation. A generation or half a generation ahead of competitors in medium- and long-range aircraft. It's the best on a range of metrics, and its money-is-no-object customers don't comparison shop. After-market parts and services business. Chance to win defense contracts.

Enjoying a moment in the sun after 20 years under a dark cloud. Most investors haven't yet realized that, so more upside.

BUY

Best Canadian bank. Going higher. Dominant personal and commercial franchise in Canada. US business not as good as the Canadian one, but has turned a corner. Biggest wealth management franchise in Canada. Global top 10 in capital markets, which should grow nicely.

BUY

Could buy a dividend stock that's down, but there's no indication that that's a precondition for success. This one's at fresh all-time highs, and that's what good companies do over time. "Buy high, sell higher" is a better mantra than "buy low, sell high". 

BUY

Good time to buy. He bought in last month or so. Very good operator. Secret sauce is that it has the best drilling inventory, many decades worth. Largest nat gas producer in Canada, about 13-14%. Owns much of its own infrastructure, which gives them operational flexibility. Smart about diversifying away from a single access point for delivery. Shareholder friendly. Importantly, CEO is a very large shareholder.

BUY

In his momentum mandate. Reported 2 days ago and beat on sales, earnings, and other key performance metrics. Earnings up ~22%, sales up 15%. Acceleration of cloud computing, now ~$50B a year and probably the fastest-growing part of the business. Stepping up capital spending on the AI arms race, yet also authorized to buy back $70B in stock. Very cash-generative.

Trying to get its head around monetizing AI in Search, and he thinks they will.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Likes dominance in its categories.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Likes technical superiority on AI chips.

TOP PICK

Best telecom in Canada. Yield of 7.4% is secure, but quite elevated relative to its 10-year average. Yield alone is not enough; feels it'll grow at a faster pace than peers, validated by company actions. All players should face easier earnings comparisons in wake of the detrimental price war. Financial strength and flexibility. 

Interesting, but growing, collection of faster-growing non-telecom businesses such as healthcare and benefits consulting. Surplus urban real estate (obsolete central switching stations) can be monetized through redevelopment (not to mention the $1B that could be realized by selling the copper for scrap).

(Analysts’ price target is $23.35)
TOP PICK

World's largest crop nutrient business. Upstream production vertically integrated with downstream stores (in US, Canada, and some in South America). Commodity prices for the 3 fertilizer ingredients has bottomed, supported by steadily improving prices for major cash crops (corn, wheat, soybeans). 

Trades roughly at long-term average multiple. Earnings on cusp of a turning point. Dividend's increased 36% since merger in 2018, plus reduced outstanding shares by 23% since then. Yield 3.6%.

(Analysts’ price target is $87.48)
TOP PICK

Cloud networking company that sells products and services for network protection to data centres and large campuses. "Picks and shovels" to the hyperscaler "miners", which provides ~50% of its revenue. As the big players compete in this AI arms race by spending, ANET will benefit. 

Trades at 40x PE, a premium valuation that's well warranted. Expected 17% compounded growth rate in earnings over next 3 years, underpinned by very strong secular growth prospects for data centres and AI computing. No dividend.

(Analysts’ price target is $109.69)
COMMENT

It reports Monday. Shares could fly if tariffs on steel have the effect of allowing WHR to sell their washers and dryers without the dumping of America's so-called trading partners.

COMMENT

It reports Tuesday. He hopes the CEO announces his plans for China and in improving throughput.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

It reports Tuesday. It always sells off after it reports, because its financials are hard to understand.

WAIT

It reports Wednesday. Wait until the CEO speak before making a move either way.