PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 21/24, Up 1%)

Always a concern when you're being sued by the US government. Have to see what evolves, GOOG has already said it will appeal, will play out over a number of years. Headline risk is an overhang. Capex for data centres will increase by 40-50%, a surprise to the street.

Cloud grew 30% YOY, healthy, but expectations were for 32% or so. Stock came off. And now the market selloff, which is focused on large-cap tech. Trading at 17x forward PE. Consensus that EPS can grow in the 14-15% range. If earnings can hold, the multiple is very attractive (actually less than the S&P). Reports this week. She'd buy here with new money.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 21/24, Down 3%)

Down YOY, but has actually held up well during recent market uncertainty. 40% of revenue from EMs, which tend to have stronger long-term, secular growth. Cocoa prices spiked, and chocolate is 30% of its business, so they guided earnings down. Long-term outlook still attractive, expanding into adjacent categories.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 21/24, Down 11%)

Animal healthcare is attractive longer term. Tends to trade at a higher multiple. Parasiticides have done very well. Pain medication for dogs has come under debate; vet community still supports it and sees lots of growth in that area. She'd buy here.

COMMENT
US bank exposure.

A diversified portfolio should have exposure to US banks, as the US is such an important economy. She tends to focus on large-cap banks. She expects consolidation in regional banks. Sector would benefit from potential deregulation and increased M&A. We'll have to wait and see how tariffs affect all the Trump pro-business hopes for the sector.

Most large caps reported last week, and results were quite good. But that was before all the tariff turmoil. Strong trading activity in Q1. Banks have pulled back on tariff uncertainty, slowing economy, greater loan loss provisions. See her Top Picks.

HOLD

Operations in Hong Kong are an area of growth. China's autocratic economy is a risk. Its business involves local services, so shouldn't be affected by tariffs. Risk is animosity curtailing demand; but MFC is also Canadian, not just US. Slower economic growth will impact all companies, including life insurers. Tends to be more defensive; she's sticking with Canadian banks rather than lifecos.

BUY

Classified in the materials sector, but she'd call it a soft cyclical. A lot of their services are recurring, which makes it more defensive. Very well managed. It can always grow earnings by high single digits, regardless of the economic scenario, as they'll adjust their prices to customers via pass-through contracts. Still, it needs economic growth.

BUY

Owns it for income. Despite stock slide, demand for rental housing still outstrips supply. Government announced decreased immigration and international student numbers. Lots of condos coming onto the market, condo market's been very weak, and this is causing rental rates to soften. But CAR.UN tends to be outside urban areas and have larger apartments.

Rent control had an impact. Turnover was very low. Selling a lot of older, rent-controlled properties. Attractive, low-priced condo market should benefit them as people may feel they can now make the move to a condo. Nice yield just under 4%.

BUY

Good time to buy. Multiple has contracted on prospect of a slowing economy and potential for increased loan loss provisions. As a group, banks have been increasing loan loss provisions for a couple of years. Unknown how tariffs will impact economy; but RY is diversified with strong retail deposit base. HSBC Canada integration going well, source of future growth. Attractive dividend, increases a bit each year.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Owns the majority percentage of Loblaw, so does well when Loblaw does well. Defensive. No longer that cheap. Good name to hold in this type of environment, but wait for a pullback.

TOP PICK

Global operations; with Canada representing ~15% of revenue, US ~30%, 44-45% in Europe and UK. Outsourcing (~55% of the business) has long-term contracts, so that's defensive and not as cyclical. Consulting side tends to be more economically sensitive. Stock's pulled back ~17% from highs in February. 

About 14% of revenue is from doing business with the US government. Risk from DOGE cuts, but CGI's contracts are for mission-critical services. Near-term business uncertainty may result in a softer backlog. But long term, IT services are essential to decrease costs and increase productivity. Increasing M&A activity. Trades around 17x PE. Strong balance sheet. Yield is 0.42%.

(Analysts’ price target is $174.60)
TOP PICK

Very efficient, with the lowest overhead ratio and highest ROE of all competitors. Very strong balance sheet, and it's very liquid. Should outperform peers in any type of economic environment. Stock's pulled back on tariff uncertainties about 17% from its highs, now trading ~12.5x forward PE. Increased dividend last week. Yield is 2.42%.

(Analysts’ price target is $257.89)
TOP PICK

Servicing the aerospace OEM side is very profitable, with long-term recurring revenues. This makes the earnings profile less cyclical. Defense side seeing very strong demand from US and internationally. Very strong backlog in defense. Will benefit from global increases in defense spending. In the face of geopolitical turbulence, defense business should stay pretty sound. Yield is 1.96%.

(Analysts’ price target is $139.88)
COMMENT

Markets are falling declining in part because Trump is bashing Fed Chair Jay Powell, but also because of tariffs, tariffs, tariffs creating uncertainty. Trump's policies are inflationary, worsening things for the bond market and overall economy. You need 100% an independent bank, but Trump wants a Fed chair who will do his bidding. The reality is we're likely heading to a recession, likely catalysed by Trump's tariffs. He better start talking fast about deregulation and better tax rates. Now, he's after more revenue to pay for those. Trump's style of leading could be with us for a while; historically, trade negotiations take 18 months. Until there is clarity, CEOs will be cautious and defer decisions, which would be good for the economy, but are on hold. What will change Trump is the Republican Congress are worried about losing the midterms and pressure Trump. No doubt, we have a hard economic landing coming.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Industrials have a question mark over them, but if this ETF gets cheap enough, it's a strong long-term buy. It pays a lot of income. Industrial REITs 6-8 months ago were unattractive and expensive, but now should be on the minds of income investors. This could fall to $9. Good managers.

WATCH

Earnings missed last time, but great before that back in November. The price target has fallen from $30 to $20. But it's starting to get interesting.