Today, David Burrows and Stockchase Insights commented about whether SJ-T, PPL-T, AD.UN-T, ATRL-T, MSI-N, MTB-N, SU-T, ENB-T, V-N, NVDA-Q, BTE-T, TRP-T, ASTL-T, SU-T, IMO-T, CVE-T, ADBE-Q, EWJ-N, TECK.B-T, CNQ-T, GM-N, XLV-N, LLY-N, BCE-T, MS-N, PGR-N, CB-N, NA-T, CM-T, RY-T, JPM-N, TD-T, FFH-T are stocks to buy or sell.
Regional bank ETF is up 13% today. One of the two largest holdings in the KRE ETF. Really well run, has grown nicely. Bumping right up against the small banks cap of $50B in assets. Would benefit from reduced regulation. Very focused on domestic economy; would benefit from reshoring. Opportunity to make acquisitions in a friendlier world.
A steepening yield curve is great for banks, as net interest margins can expand. Entering a time when the lenders will be in control. Yield is 2.6%
Very strong portfolio of engineering and design and consulting. Plays into infrastructure, energy, and environment. Focus on nuclear will be important, with 15% of revenue coming from there. If Hwy 407 were sold at a good price, would be a catalyst to create value (but he wouldn't buy something just because there might be a deal down the road). Yield is 0.1%.
(Analysts’ price target is $70.31)EPS of 69c rose from 61c last year and beat estimates of 53c; revenue of $42.1M was marginally ahead of estimates. EBITDA fell 16% to $33.5M and was marginally below estimates. With a royalty company, the main concerns are the sustainability of the dividend, the quality of its portfolio (AD has at times had investments that stopped paying it its royalties) and its ability to continue to add royalties. The company has had a long, and generally successful, history. Payout ratio is fine at 53% and it has managed to de-risk its business with improving debt ratios. It is still a fairly small entity and with companies at times paying 15%+ there are to be problems on occasion. But we think it is priced well to reflect these concerns and would consider it a decent small cap income stock.
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EPS of 60c did miss estimates of 75c; revenue of $1.84B also missed estimates ($2.11B). EBITDA of $1.01B missed estimates by 4%. Pembina's 4Q Ebitda may expand by high-single digits, assuming it reaches the midpoint of narrowed guidance of C4.23-$4.33 billion. Contributions from increased stakes in Alliance Pipeline and Aux Sable will likely be the primary drivers, outweighing pressure on lower re-contracted tolls on the Cochin pipeline system. The narrower differential between US Gulf Coast and western Canadian condensate could continue to limit interruptible volume on Cochin. The Marketing segment may be little changed again as the fully consolidated Aux Sable asset and improved NGL margin -- partly due to weak natural gas prices -- buoy Ebitda. Capital spending in 4Q could be similar to 3Q's $262 million, supporting free-cash-flow generation to cover the dividend. It is up 24% this year, but could continue to benefit from lower interest rates. The quarter was clearly not perfect, but with its valuation and 4.9% dividend we would not necessarily see it as a sell if one wants sector exposure.
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EPS was $1.42, missing estimates of $1.75; revenue of $915M missed estimates of $1.01B. EBITDA of $162M missed estimates by 12%. Lower sales of utility poles was the main reason for the miss. Updated 2025 revenue guidance was also below consensus estimates. Margins were weaker as well. Total sales fell 3.6%. Lumber sales fell 19%. Net income fell 27%. It was a big miss from a usually-reliable company. We would not react here, as the utility issue could be temporary. But certainly not a good quarter.
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Company Highlight: Franco Nevada Corp. (FNV)
FNV is a gold-focused royalty and streaming company operating through two segments: Mining and Energy. FNV is focused on gold mining making up 75% of its portfolio, however, the remaining 25% is attributed to other precisions metals as well as oil and gas. The company has numerous international assets but primarily operates in North and South America. We will note that FNV is a royalty gold miner which means that it has interests in cash generating assets (mines). This differs from a traditional miner who owns and operates its mining assets.
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He was surprised with today's rally, but the market ignored the hideous action in the bon market with yields jumping. The banks have been unreleased, held back by regulation under Biden. Expect more IPOs and even bank mergers ahead. Despite today's move, the banks remain cheap (valuation), but this parabolic move could pull bank and likely will fall after this week's Fed announcement. Transports and industrials surged today. The former shows confidence in more economic activity, but industrials had already rallied before the vote.
Predictable business model. In a Republican administration, anti-trust stuff should be less difficult. We'll see how consumer spending goes. Travel has been pretty strong. Less economically sensitive. Great holding.