Stockchase Opinions

Stockchase InsightsPembina Pipeline CorpPPL.TOBUY ON WEAKNESSNov 06, 2024

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

EPS of 60c did miss estimates of 75c; revenue of $1.84B also missed estimates ($2.11B). EBITDA of $1.01B missed estimates by 4%. Pembina's 4Q Ebitda may expand by high-single digits, assuming it reaches the midpoint of narrowed guidance of C4.23-$4.33 billion. Contributions from increased stakes in Alliance Pipeline and Aux Sable will likely be the primary drivers, outweighing pressure on lower re-contracted tolls on the Cochin pipeline system. The narrower differential between US Gulf Coast and western Canadian condensate could continue to limit interruptible volume on Cochin. The Marketing segment may be little changed again as the fully consolidated Aux Sable asset and improved NGL margin -- partly due to weak natural gas prices -- buoy Ebitda. Capital spending in 4Q could be similar to 3Q's $262 million, supporting free-cash-flow generation to cover the dividend. It is up 24% this year, but could continue to benefit from lower interest rates. The quarter was clearly not perfect, but with its valuation and 4.9% dividend we would not necessarily see it as a sell if one wants sector exposure. 
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Stock price when the opinion was issued

$68.01

As of Aug 12, 2026. Market Open.

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TOP PICK

Pays a 4.5% dividend. Good backlog so can increase cash flows and dividends for the next few years. Will benefit if a new LNG pipeline is built out west.

(Analysts’ price target is $72.67)
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 03/25, Up 34%)

Still loves it (though not at these valuations ;)  Growth is on track, and getting paid in the meantime. What's not to like?

BUY ON WEAKNESS

He doesn't own any of the pure-play oil producers right now (though he does own TOU). The reason is the volatility we're seeing. 

His team plays energy these days by owning ENB, and some of the smaller midstream companies like PPL and GEI. He likes their stability. 

HOLD

Obviously executing. Data centre deals. Likes it, but it's had a really big run. Not much earnings growth right now relative to peers. He wouldn't buy more right now.

HOLD

A name for a good dividend and safety. Pipelines are not quite as good as utilities, because they're perceived as being commodity-sensitive (even though they're really not). 

You'll get your dividend, and the safety means you can sleep at night (and that's worth something). You can get diversification via funds and ETFs.

BUY

It broke out early this year and the move since has been sort of parabolic. A pullback is possible.

HOLD

Are more aggressive than Enbridge in their backlog, a good thing. The Basin is well-positioned.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Nice yield, and more growth projects.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Owns in his firm's high-yield growth fund. Very well positioned, especially after today's government announcement about a Western pipeline -- Pembina gets a slice of that.

BUY

Western Canada has many opportunities for more production and PPL is in the middle of that. Is a decent long-term gold with a good dividend.

WEAK BUY
vs. Altagas

Both benefit from AI centre demand. Pembina is building a 1.8 gigawatt natural gas plant in Alberta. Half of ALA's business is in the US, regulated utilities, in Virginia--the world capital of data centre traffic. ALA also has activity in Western Canada. ALA's growth rate is higher than Pembina. ALA gets the slight edge.

BUY

All energy stocks have come off because we've had (cynically) a "peace scare" in the Middle East. Energy sector will continue to be robust.

Also likes, and owns, TOU.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 24/25, Up 36%)

A defensive holding. Surprised by how well the pipeline stocks have done. War has definitely had an impact on energy infrastructure. Still a standout to grow, with lower valuation and excess capital.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 23/25, Up 31%)

Pipelines and utilities have soared, because of energy demand from data centres. PPL is quality with a healthy balance sheet and growth outlook. Most of their projects are already sanctioned. 

BUY

Their PE is lower than TC and ENB. Better scale and diversification from all peers.