Opinions
Stockchase Insights
Pembina Pipeline Corp
PPL-T
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Nov 06, 2024
Stock price when the opinion was issued
You might be interested:
Still her favourite pipeline, especially at these levels. Best growth trajectory, and in best strategic position to handle growth in nat gas shipping with LNG Canada. Alliance Pipeline pricing has been an overhang. This is the one to own based on dividend growth, yield, and capex plan.
With the idea of building income in a portfolio. Out of the spotlight, but with a catalyst. Everything is bad news around this name. Alliance Pipeline is a very special asset going from Alberta to Chicago area. Contracting issues right now, and stock's slid on the uncertainty. Those issues are fixable 1-2 years from now, it's just not known right now what the fix is.
High quality, lots of prospects. Doesn't issue shares as much as other companies, business plan is tight. Can incrementally grow over the next few years. Might actually drop another $2. He put one leg in, would put another one in if it dropped. Yield is 5.7%.
Energy infrastructure in Canada is one of the great areas to invest in. Fits in well with natural gas being moved east--west. Under pressure in last year due to tolling on Alliance Pipeline, but that's more than factored in. Lowest valuation of the group, so more potential for growth. Yield is 5.60%.
Canada's realized it needs to change some of its behaviour, and part of that includes energy infrastructure.
Macro environment is tough for energy and energy infrastructure. 200-day MA starting to trend lower, not a fantastic sign. Regulatory environment isn't that helpful either. Nice yield of 5.8%, which will probably remain steady going forward.
Not sure that government's new openness to exporting energy gives him optimism, as the stock price isn't reflecting that.
The worst-performing infrastructure-pipeline name in the short term. Are some issues with an asset in Canada where the regulated pricing has been set lower. That's holding this stock back. A well-run business with good assets, but has volatility. It has more outlets for growth vs. peers like ENB. Can buy this for the dividend and wait. The PE is low, and will always trade at a discount to peers, because less of its cash flow is regulated.
Surprising performance. If he could pick it as a Top Pick again today, he would. Re-contracting of tolls on Alliance Pipeline bought from ENB was worse than expected. Really well positioned for increase in nat gas production in Western Canada. Continues to buy.
EPS of 60c did miss estimates of 75c; revenue of $1.84B also missed estimates ($2.11B). EBITDA of $1.01B missed estimates by 4%. Pembina's 4Q Ebitda may expand by high-single digits, assuming it reaches the midpoint of narrowed guidance of C4.23-$4.33 billion. Contributions from increased stakes in Alliance Pipeline and Aux Sable will likely be the primary drivers, outweighing pressure on lower re-contracted tolls on the Cochin pipeline system. The narrower differential between US Gulf Coast and western Canadian condensate could continue to limit interruptible volume on Cochin. The Marketing segment may be little changed again as the fully consolidated Aux Sable asset and improved NGL margin -- partly due to weak natural gas prices -- buoy Ebitda. Capital spending in 4Q could be similar to 3Q's $262 million, supporting free-cash-flow generation to cover the dividend. It is up 24% this year, but could continue to benefit from lower interest rates. The quarter was clearly not perfect, but with its valuation and 4.9% dividend we would not necessarily see it as a sell if one wants sector exposure.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free