PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 25/24, Up 15%)

(Note the short timeframe.) MA and Visa make up the best unregulated duopoly in the world. MA has less debit exposure, which is where Visa got dinged. Still a reasonable valuation.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 25/24, Up 8%)

(Note the short timeframe.) Still a fan for the long term. Relief rally of late, with losses coming more into line. As long as these companies can take price from customers for cost inflation, margins remain stable.

HOLD

Attractive for the long term. Leader in monetizing AI technology. Not a pure tech company; rather, a distribution platform for technology. Advantage and reach to take any technology and scale it up to users globally. For example, the way they took Slack and turned it into Microsoft Teams.

PARTIAL SELL

Great company, most diversified bank in Canada. Best platform. Lowest risk, as they have different areas of growth, and you want diversified sources of revenue growth. Hold for the long term, but take some profits, as valuation has really jumped up a step. 

COMMENT
Canadian banks -- buying and selling.

The secret with banks (and especially RY) is to buy at 9-10x earnings, assuming there isn't a systemic crisis or looming credit cycle. But at 13-15x, banks start being viewed as more than banks, and that's a great time to sell to someone who has a dream that you shouldn't be dreaming.

SELL ON STRENGTH

Best days are behind. Returns on incremental invested capital have taken a step lower recently, reflected in valuation. Content growth stable, with a downward bias. Sell on strength, though no immediate urgency. Melting ice cube, so even a big drop in valuation would probably not tempt him.

HOLD

Still more upside, but remember that's upside in the context of a bank. Great bank. Credit Suisse acquisition reinforced its assets, as well as wholesale banking and Asia wealth footprint. Tactically bullish.

SELL
Record high.

Better than it used to be, spinout makes a lot of sense. But at the end of the day, servicing an end market that's not growing and they're trying to sell more into it. Open to risk from other players that have pure-play solutions. More reasons to be negative than positive.

BUY

Pretty positive on sale of the sports assets, as the real value came from de-leveraging. Payout ratio is a little more bearable today, though still stretched. He'd buy today, but remember that these are tough businesses over the medium- to long-term. Doesn't mean you have a long-term, high-revenue-growth business.

Telcos have lagged other yield sectors, and this creates an opportunity. He's buying all the telcos. This is his #2 choice in the space. Cashflow is stable, but not growing at a very high rate, and the dividend must take this into account. If your payout ratio is already on the high end, and you're raising the dividend every time, you're actually borrowing debt to pay the dividend. He likes companies that are on the right side of the payout ratio, and BCE is moving in the right dircetion.

BUY

He'd buy today, but remember that these are tough businesses over the medium- to long-term. Doesn't mean you have a long-term, high-revenue-growth business.

Telcos have lagged other yield sectors, and this creates an opportunity. He's buying all the telcos. This is his #1 choice in the space. Well managed, reasonable payout ratio. And that's why it's at the top, with a higher valuation.

WEAK BUY

He'd buy today, but remember that these are tough businesses over the medium- to long-term. Doesn't mean you have a long-term, high-revenue-growth business.

Telcos have lagged other yield sectors, and this creates an opportunity. He's buying all the telcos. This is his #4 choice in the space, as it has long-term issues in network buildout. 

WEAK BUY

He'd buy today, but remember that these are tough businesses over the medium- to long-term. Doesn't mean you have a long-term, high-revenue-growth business.

Telcos have lagged other yield sectors, and this creates an opportunity. He's buying all the telcos. This is his #3 choice in the space. Fell down his list because it bought the sports assets from BCE, and he wants cashflow from our telcos, not trophy assets.

COMMENT
Telecoms -- does high debt create big risk?

One of the biggest risks for telcos as a whole is that leverage for the Canadian ones tends to be on the higher end. Still, debt is in context of a stable structure, respectable margins, and debt servicing that's higher but not stretched.

Leverage profile, combined with any change in the competitive dynamic, creates a spiral situation. It's getting better and a problem for tomorrow, but it is a problem.

TRADE

He'd own it for the next couple of months, but questions the next couple of years. Clinique is strong, but has lost some of its brand "heat". Weaker topline. Revenue coming down at the same time as costs are inflating. Tactically bullish if you believe the spurt in China is real, but tends to get more competitive over the long term, and that will come home to roost for EL over a 5-year horizon.

See his Top Picks for a more durable idea.

HOLD

Big fan. Valuation has reset higher, but capital discipline intact. His #1 choice over MFC and SLF, acknowledging that FFH is not like the other two.