Opinions
Danesh Rohinton
Tryg A/S
TRYG-CPH
PAST TOP PICK
Sep 30, 2024
Stock price when the opinion was issued
You might be interested:
P&C insurance in Scandinavia. Scandinavian market for insurance is one of the most profitable in the world. Policy holders actually own half of the company. The more profit Tryg makes, the more of a rebate they get. They don't spend on marketing, because customers never leave. And those customers spread the word to their friends. (Price target in krona.) Great yield of 5.3%.
Valuation's been coming in because it lost track of the cost-price dynamic. Thinks we're on the other side of that headwind now. Valuation's reasonable for its quality. Profit trajectory on an upward path.
He keeps it unhedged, focuses on the fundamentals, and is actually more worried about the CAD.
Still an attractive hold. The way to analyze this company is by 3 simple criteria.
One, look at their solvency 2 ratios (TRYG has modest excess capital, so some should come back to shareholders). Second, the main metric for P&C insurers is the combined ratio (TRYG is top-notch in mid-80s, which translates to profit margin ~15%). Third, look at direct premium written growth and net premiums earned to understand how much of their business they're reinsuring away and what future revenue looks like.
A bonus metric is prior year development to see the quality of the underwriting.
(Note the short timeframe.) Still a fan for the long term. Relief rally of late, with losses coming more into line. As long as these companies can take price from customers for cost inflation, margins remain stable.