Opinions
Danesh Rohinton
UBS Group AG
UBS-N
HOLD
Sep 30, 2024
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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UBS Group AG is a multinational investment bank and financial services company founded and based in Switzerland. Co-headquartered in the cities of Zürich and Basel, it maintains a presence in all major financial centres as the largest Swiss banking institution and the largest private bank in the world. Social media mentions are up 8% in the past 24h.
UBS is the 9th largest bank in the world, based on capitalization. We like that quarterly cash reserves are growing, while debt is retired. It trades a 28x earnings and supports a robust 40% ROE. Its modest dividend is backed by a payout ratio under 10% of cash flow. We recommend setting a stop-loss at $24.50, looking to achieve $34 — upside potential of 17%. Yield 1.2%
(Analysts’ price target is $33.62)
We reiterate UBS as a TOP PICK. The Swiss based bank is under pressure as analysts believe it may be required to hold larger capital reserves. Management argues it can withstand a $200 billion loss. The government will not publish its recommendation until next year. Meanwhile, cash reserves are strong, as debt is aggressively retired. It trades at book value and supports a 38% ROE. We continue to recommend a stop at $24.50, looking to achieve $32.50 -- upside potential of 19%. Yield 1.2%
(Analysts’ price target is $32.49)Buying Credit Suisse turned them into one of the largest wealth management businesses in the world with $4 trillion in assets. They keep creating new business units and products to their high new worth clients (i.e. mortgages, alternative investments). If things pan out--as earnings have been accretive since the takeover--2026's target is $315 at 8x PE. So, that's decent value. Caveat: the last 10-20 years have no dividend growth.
Our PAST TOP PICK with UBS has triggered its stop at $31. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. When combined with our previous guidance, this will result in a net investment gain of 11%
Still more upside, but remember that's upside in the context of a bank. Great bank. Credit Suisse acquisition reinforced its assets, as well as wholesale banking and Asia wealth footprint. Tactically bullish.