Today, The Weekly Buzzing Stocks by Billy Kawasaki and Colin Cieszynski commented about whether DOL-T, GM-N, AAPL-Q, ATS-T, ENB-T, HBM-T, JNJ-N, BNS-T, CJT-T, AC-T, NTR-T, BBD.B-T, CVNA-N, LLY-N, ATH-T, NVDA-Q, TLT-Q, CP-T, C-N, ATD-T, CSU-T, CLS-T, NVDA-Q, MU-Q, TM-N, ARE-T, O-N, HPE-N, MAIN-N are stocks to buy or sell.
It's true. Everything on the surface seems absolutely fantastic. It's akin to when he goes hiking on the Scarborough Bluffs. You can look out and see this beautiful view and the lake, and everything looks amazing. But there's this fence with a sign saying "Don't go any further than here," because even though the ground looks stable, it's actually caving in underneath. If you step over there, you could fall.
That's how he feels about the markets right now. The indexes keep hitting new all-time highs, but when you start looking underneath, the picture isn't quite so rosy.
He's been doing a lot of comparison of different markets and indices. Even within countries like Canada and the United States, you can get very different performance between large-caps stocks and small caps.
Look at a chart comparing the S&P 500 vs. S&P 100 vs. Russell 2000. The S&P 500 has been trending up since October 2023. The S&P 100 has also been going up, but at an even faster pace. The more important one is the Russell, flat since January, but going down in the last month or so. People are dialing back their exposure to the small caps, and the gains are getting more and more concentrated in the big caps.
The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index, which means that stocks with the largest market caps have the largest weight in the index as well. Compare that to the equal-weight index, where each company has the same representation within the index.
He considers them fellow travellers, most of the time they trend in the same direction. When you start seeing differences, that's a flag you always want to pay attention to. They were going in the same direction for about 6 months. Now the market-cap weighted is going to new all-time highs, but the equal-weight index has gone flat. This suggests that the gains are being concentrated in a small number of large-cap stocks, whereas the broader index isn't necessarily participating as much.
Dow industrials have gone to new all-time highs, but the other Dow indexes haven't done quite as well. Transport, in particular. For over 100 years, technicians have looked at Dow industrials vs. transports, feeling that the two of them should be fellow travellers. So if you get a new high in one, in short order you should be getting a new high in the other one.
This hasn't been the case more recently. Industrials hit all-time highs, and then dropped back a little bit. More importantly, Dow transports have levelled off. They haven't confirmed the industrials' new high, and they've actually started to go down.
A fair question. We've seen technology do incredibly well lately.
But at the end of the day, most people want to go out and buy goods and services, and these have to be transported by truck or by rail. Or people travel for business or vacations on airplanes. Part of the internet economy is ordering things online, and those go through the courier companies. At some point, all these things need to get transported.
When everything's going up together, makes it harder to differentiate on a technical basis. He compares stocks head to head using charts to see which are outperforming.
Right now, NVDA has been the highest ranked stock in US reports, and that's the one he holds. In Canada, CLS has been the highest-ranked stock, and his portfolios hold that as well. MU has been trailing a bit, but might catch up, hard to say.
When everything's going up together, makes it harder to differentiate on a technical basis. He compares stocks head to head using charts to see which are outperforming.
Right now, NVDA has been the highest ranked stock in US reports, and that's the one he holds. In Canada, CLS has been the highest-ranked stock, and his portfolios hold that as well. MU has been trailing a bit, but might catch up, hard to say.
When everything's going up together, makes it harder to differentiate on a technical basis. He compares stocks head to head using charts to see which are outperforming.
Right now, NVDA has been the highest ranked stock in US reports, and that's the one he holds. In Canada, CLS has been the highest-ranked stock, and his portfolios hold that as well. MU has been trailing a bit, but might catch up, hard to say.
Trading in a sideways range between $3900 and support around $3550. He likes to see this consolidation, especially if it hasn't gone down or broken down, as it suggests very solid accumulation underneath.
$4000 is a big round number, could present significant resistance. If it went through, that would be a breakout, and measuring $400 from the channel would suggest the next resistance would be around $4400.