Colin Cieszynski Micron Technology MU-Q WATCH Jun 20, 2024

Hyper-cyclical earnings. Storage and memory chips, which are like a commodity and so you have big swings. Consensus is for earnings to grow over 400% this year, not because of innovation but because of the demand cycle. Go back 10 years and this name has generated a total compound return of 10%, which is less than the S&P. Beta is 1.9.

Is merely okay after a couple of mediocre quarters. Is no catalyst to raise this higher.

The market and Micron are getting toppy. This can go down to $80, no problem. This is a trade, not investment.

He's done with memory stocks. The industry has only a few dominant players, and this name is one of them. Yet, there's still crazy cyclicality and it's hard to be differentiated.

It plays in memory and storage tech, and is really cyclical. He targets $142. It doesn't compete with TSMC, very agonistic, because they are a factory and don't design chips.

They just reported a strong quarter. But shares have run $60 to $126 and can't go higher. 

Up 10% the past month. It ran up huge into the quarter, but has since gone done. We've seen this pattern better.  Buy some tomorrow, then wait for a 10% interval to buy more.

Up 13% in the last 6 months. The stock is inexpensive, but the chart tells him to wait. It had a good run, and now the market says it looks bad.

It has two businesses. One is high-bandwidth memory which goes into data centres, and two is DRAM which is having poor pricing. You need DRAM pricing to rebound, though you can buy a few shares now.

Not a direct competitor to NVDA, but very strong in DRAM and NAND markets. Impressed by mid-quarter update which boosted earnings projections by 10-15% for the quarter. Cheaper than peers in the space, could be re-rated when the market wakes up to that. 

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