Today, Stockchase Insights and Bill Baruch, Founder, Blue Line Capital commented about whether AMZN-Q, PXD-N, ADBE-Q, ATH-T, AMT-N, NWH.UN-T are stocks to buy or sell.
AMT is a $77.5B REIT which pays a 3.8% yield. Forward sales and earnings estimates are decent, and its historical growth rates are strong. Its margins have been weakening over the past few years and its valuation has come down alongside the rapid rise in interest rates. It generates good free cash flows, which are partly used for distributions and partially for paying down debt. It has a good balance sheet, and it is fundamentally strong, but its valuations are somewhat high and declining based on competition from other high-yielding assets with much less risk such as GICs and high-interest savings accounts. We feel that a catalyst that could help its share price is interest rates stalling or even declining. The central banks indicating that they are done with hiking interest rates can act as a catalyst for AMT and other REITs.
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Some companies can be very specific in outlning their plans for capital, but others stay quiet. There is no 'requirement' to disclose plans but the majority typically provide some guidance on this. As of June 30, ATH has about $80M net debt. It will likely be in a net cash position by year end. But ATH has discussed its plans. In a recent press release, it noted: the Company intends to direct a portion of free cash flow to its shareholders. The Company will assess market conditions to determine the best method to enhance shareholder returns, which could include a dividend, or share buybacks. We also note that it bought back $46M in stock in the 2Q, and $14M subsequent to the end of the quarter.
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Dividend Income:
Dividend income is one of the most attractive rewards of being an investor. Because, unlike capital gains which could be subject to market volatility, the dividend received is “real money” at the end of the day, which could be either spent or reinvested.
Over the long term, companies that pay stable, consistent and growing dividends year after year even during economic downturns are attractive candidates for long-term investment. This consistency demonstrates not only the resiliency in the business model, or what investors usually refer to as competitive advantage, but also signalling that the company is well-run by a shareholder-friendly management team. As a result, these companies are usually rewarded by the market with a premium multiple compared to industry peers and the market averages.
Buying and holding companies that could grow dividends over a long period of time is a brilliant way to build generational wealth, which is the hallmark of investing. Therefore, we think investors should pay more attention to dividend growth rather than the dividend yield.
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$100 oil is possible, because the Saudis have cut supply and China will wake up and demand more oil. Also, US demand in driving season was good. Don't chase crude oil at these levels beacuse there will be volatility. Marathon is America's bigget oil refiner, and there's a lack of refineries, but still demand. He's bullish.
He has sold a lot of tech to raise his cash to 10%. However, he has added to a few names: Amazon, Apple and Adobe in this current market weakness to put cash to work. He likes Adobe for its AI. Yes, Amazon is one of the more expensive names out there, but today they announced they will invest in Ai to rival ChatGPT, along overdue move to get more into AI, a step in the right direction. Likes this move.
Downgraded today. He bought it earlier this year based on positive momentum starting with last October's low through last spring. Now, they have challenges with China and we will learn more when they report Thursday. Technical are not good now. The entire apparel-footwear sector is challenged by consumers; back-to-school sales were disappointing, so this will lead to lots of discounts in the holiday season. Troubles lie ahead. Troubles began last spring with Foot Locker's weakness.
The distribution cut was needed, but of course was fairly large (55%). The asset sales are a good start but challenges remain. The strategic review is only seven weeks old, but reading between the lines it sounds like there has not been huge interest yet. It is hard to endorse this right now. With higher rates and lower assets (from sales), growth will be hard to come by. We might be reluctant to sell it on the first trading day of this news, but we certainly think it can be 'targetted' for elimination from an investor's portfolio and used as a source of cash for other ideas. The stock will likely be in the penalty box for some time for multiple disappointments over the past year, with a business that is supposed to be more reliable and more predictable. We would not see solvency as an issue but it is just hard to like right now.
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