COMMENT
He is not enamored with natural gas right now. He feels management is able to beat expectations, which should allow them to get re-rated going forward by the analysts.
DON'T BUY
He has not held PD-T for quite a while. It has fallen below $3, which was his previous buy target. He sees the current tax loss selling impacting the entire sector and will create great opportunities. However, he thinks there are better opportunities in the E&P sector. He thinks it is cheap and you would make money, but he prefers other holdings.
COMMENT
Steady income? He thinks the recent budget for SU-T showing production growth with refining assets makes them pretty stable. He thinks there are lots of others that will recover much quicker -- like Cenovus (CVE-T). Yield 3.6%
COMMENT
Steady income? He thinks the recent budget for SU-T showing production growth with refining assets makes them pretty stable. He thinks there are lots of others that will recover much quicker -- like Cenovus (CVE-T). Yield 3.6%
COMMENT
E&P vs Integrated. There is a structural problem with a lack of funds coming into the sector. Small cap producers are off investor's radars, so the trading threshold is now over $1 billion to attract any investment. He would be very worried as a CEO of a small cap E&P -- will they be able to access capital going forward?
BUY
When MEG-T is gone, ATH-T will be the highest levered company to tightening heavy differentials. They trade on 11 times cash flow and that can fall to 4.5 times with a tighter heavy differential. He sees heavy differentials at $20. He sees a target of $2.67 in share price. He is the second largest shareholder in this company. (Analysts’ price target is $2.16)
TOP PICK
This offers great leverage to higher oil prices and tighter heavy oil differentials.. Over 37% of their cash flow comes from the Eagleford and have enormous exposure to the Duvernay. The value of this asset is in excess of the share price. It has had enormous tax loss selling recently, so it has great upside. At $60 WTI prices, he gets about a $4 share price. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $5.09)
TOP PICK
A pure Permian and Bakken play that has been hurt recently. On a 2020 year basis, once pipeline differentials go away this will trade up by 80% or more on a $60 oil price. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $22.95)
TOP PICK
They have a 30 year drilling inventory in the Permian. It trades at only 3 times cash flow for the 2020 time period -- offering tremendous upside potential. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $36.90)
COMMENT
All 3 major US indices officially in correction territory. Two months ago, people couldn't get enough of the markets. Companies still have the same recurring revenue, but now the sentiment is all fear. Good time to put your money in.
COMMENT
How long will the volatility last? There's a lot of cash out there, but still a lot of uncertainty. Tariffs, concerns over growth, flattening yield curve, and the Fed decision next Wednesday. He thinks US rates have to rise next week, but with a dovish commentary. DAX is down, as well as China, Japan, and North America. Have backtracked from 3 raises in 2019, down to 1 or 2.
COMMENT
Concerned about Chinese or US consumer? Retail sales numbers from China were below expectations of 8.1%. France contracted on PMIs, and Eurozone ratcheted down too. People are concerned about the markets, not looking for the silver lining.
COMMENT
Huawei CFO under pressure, so why is it still instrumental? This is about 5G. Telecoms and equipment suppliers. The next generation of mobile internet connectivity will be faster and more accessible, so it needs more equipment. The players are finite. Huawei is heavily funded by Chinese government, and it owns 28% of the 100B market share. That's why it's a big deal.
WAIT
Poster child when it comes to security as a service. Offer software instead of hardware, and the first to get in, so they have a lead. Instead, he owns Palo Alto and Splunk on the cybersecurity side. But it's on their shopping list, once markets settle down.
COMMENT
Top 10 strategic tech trends. There's 5G, and so on. At the centre is digital business, with the 3 themes of business intelligence, merging virtual with the real world, and electrification and digitization.