Today, Josef Schachter and Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA commented about whether BCE-T, VTI-N, PD-T, ESI-T, PONY-T, CPG-T, SDX-LN, TDG-T, BXE-T, TCW-T, WCP-T, VET-T, LXE-X, SU-T, CASH, GTE-T, ESN-T, RRX-T, BTE-T, CHR-T, VIX-I, ZWU-T, WJA-T are stocks to buy or sell.
A Nat gas play. These stocks are right in the dog house. Production is up from last year. It is 54% leveraged which is better than before and better than other companies. These things have been thrown out but people are going to be surprised by how well they do over the next 3 to 5 years. It could be a $20 stock. (Analysts’ target: $1.53).
Oil. We are in the bottoming phase of the market. The US is taking all the growth in global oil production. OPEC countries are already shipping more oil to the states. There is going to be a seasonal pull back in oil. He thinks he will be bullish on oil sometime next year. He expects a multi-year bull market starting then for 5 years or so.
The problem is that they were a growth story and got into some trouble when prices went down. Now you are looking at a company trading at a significant discount to book value. He is not looking at much growth this year in production. Debt went up last quarter to 48%. He likes the stock and thinks he will recommend it when oil goes up.
He's not rattled by current headlines. The stories in the back of the newspaper are more important than the front page. A news item is shocking at first, but people get used to that news or forget it. Also, people focus on the negative more than the positive, and the negative can be positive in the investing world, such as a collapse in oil prices doesn't trigger an economic collapse (rising oil does, actually). The bond proxies like utilities, REITs and telecoms are not attractive. Rates are rising and there's no growth in these stocks. He's also worried about the bond market and gold. Instead, buy cyclicals instead of defensives, like healthcare and technology, stocks that benefit from a strengthening economy.
He's not positive on cars as a whole now. Electrification is a trend, yes. There will be more e-cars, batteries and maybe hybrids. That said, Tesla needs to raise capital constantly and and has no plans to create cash flow. Can Elon Musk succeed? He's innovative, so it's possible. But the car space is too risky for him. How big will be the car market be in light of ride-sharing? Car sales may even shrink in the future. (However, battery technology is attractive.)
Stay with it. He is working on analysis of it now. He likes the company and the assets. It has some of the best engineering teams for recovery. You are looking at a potential double over the next 4 to 5 years.