Opinions
David Fingold
Tesla Inc
TSLA-Q
DON'T BUY
Jun 18, 2018
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Trading at extremely high valuation. Cult stock. Can't really value it on today's earnings. Have to hope the battery technology takes off and that robotaxis becomes a huge thing. Lots of irons in the fire. If you believe the Musk-hype, this is a must-own.
For the rest of us, who can't cope with the valuation, very hard to buy. Sometimes the growth comes and it works out, and then you wonder why you didn't pay 800x PE ;)
He's liked the company for ages for its EV's, self-driving cars and robots, which show promise, but he could never pull the trigger. However, last night, as the feud exploded, he changed is mind. Tesla and all its businesses changed the moment Musk broke with Trump. Musk got personal and incendiary towards Trump. Trump is vindictive. Musk should not have picked a fight with Trump, despite Musk spending $250 million getting Trump elected. Musk's various businesses dovetail with Washington. If anything goes wrong with Tesla's self-driving cars, he can see Trump banning them. Trump could ban robots, too. So, that leaves the EV's, and that alone makes Tesla over-valued. Tesla cars aren't selling well, and Washington will stop subsidizing them. Musk is a brilliant businessman, but a self-destructive political operator--he's become toxic, and Tesla stock has become too hard to own.
Premium contentTesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) is an American electric vehicle and clean energy company led by CEO Elon Musk. Tesla's business segments include electric vehicles, energy generation and storage, and other automotive services. Known for its innovation in the electric vehicle market, Tesla's product line includes the Model S, Model X, Model 3, and Model Y, along with solar products and energy storage solutions. Despite its groundbreaking products and a loyal customer base, Tesla has had a history of fluctuating financial performance, regulatory challenges, and intense competition in the EV market. Social media mentions are up 11.8% in the past 24h.
Is not an investment, but a trade. Look at its volatility. At $350, write some calls. He targets $410. He constantly trims his holding. Is great to buy under $300, and sell above $350. It deserves it premium among car companies. Their future lies in robotics, not EVs. Musk plans to sell robots in 2026.
At today's valuation, you'd have to believe it will hit it out of the park in all areas and be super-profitable. He believes that the best EVs in the world today are Chinese, and at spectacular prices. Car manufacturing is not an easy gig. Buying this needs a major health warning attached.
He's not positive on cars as a whole now. Electrification is a trend, yes. There will be more e-cars, batteries and maybe hybrids. That said, Tesla needs to raise capital constantly and and has no plans to create cash flow. Can Elon Musk succeed? He's innovative, so it's possible. But the car space is too risky for him. How big will be the car market be in light of ride-sharing? Car sales may even shrink in the future. (However, battery technology is attractive.)