TOP PICK

Huge value in these names. Maybe we get a normal market where money actually stays in the market, but it rotates through value. Model price is $37.73, a 50% upside to its current price. 3.4% dividend yield.

COMMENT

Switch eBay (EBAY-Q) for Merck (MRK-N) for a 3-5 year hold? He made his money on eBay and has since left it. What he likes it is that Carl Icahn is in there shaking things up. Thinks you could flip a coin on who does better. You will do well on both.

COMMENT

Switch eBay (EBAY-Q) for Merck (MRK-N) for a 3-5 year hold? This is now approaching its model price of $60, only a 9% upside. 3.2% dividend yield. Thinks you could flip a coin on who does better. You will do well on both.

COMMENT

There is a lot of value here. His model prices $56, a 27% upside. In all likelihood it will go to $58.25 but it does have risk. At $50.25, he would seriously think about Selling and moving on. He would use this is a Trade more than a Hold in a portfolio.

DON'T BUY

There are a group of these energy names that pay a distribution way above what they are earning. His model price is $31.42, a negative 21%. They pay a distribution of $2.76. Investors look at 6.78%, but mean estimates in terms of earnings, is $1 and next year it is $0.95. What it means is that they are paying out their capital to investors. Overvalued.

COMMENT

Thinks this will grow. His model price is $49.53, a 12% upside. Next year it is probably going to be a $50 stock. You get a little bit of a dividend of about 1%, plus you’re getting the growth of the balance sheet. He can find more value elsewhere, but there is nothing wrong with the position.

COMMENT

Fundamentals are improving. EBV (Economic Book Value) +3 will probably be the major resistance on the stock. All the energy stocks are moving and this one is just following along. His model price calculation and the stock price have a positive trend.

COMMENT

His model price is $51.72, a 15% upside. Has a dividend of $2.64 and it might earn $2.38, so they pay out everything that they have. If it could come back to $36, that would be his Buy level.

DON'T BUY

Considers gold stocks as the “canary in the coal mine”. Basically all their balance sheets have been written off. They all did acquisitions at the top of the price of gold, and that went on their balance sheet. After the debacle of the share price coming back in 2013, you are now getting all the write-offs. There was a very unenthusiastic rally in the 1st quarter of this year. Now we are seeing the rollover. He is not seeing anything in his system to give you a “Buy” signal.

HOLD

He has a model price of $12.40 which is a 130% upside. There has been a positive move in the stock and he has had a positive transit of one of his EBV (Economic Book Value) lines, which is very positive. It will probably hold here for a while, but energy stocks are starting to have some action in them.

N/A

Markets. Very comfortable that stocks are going to go up over the next little while. There is always going to be a pullback or something like that and his view is that you should look to buy those things over the next little while. Doesn’t see interest rates going up dramatically. You had margins get to peak levels which people were worried about, but you also had P multiples expand. In order for stocks to go higher, you need to see more revenue growth. He thinks you will because there will be more capital expenditure down the road as people feel a lot more secure about where the economy is going, not only in the US, but in Europe as well. That will lead to some capital expenditure. Most of these companies, because of what happened in 2007-2009 have very good cost structures so he expects to see very reasonable margins go higher as you see capital expenditures and some top line revenue growth.

COMMENT

Doesn’t know this particular ETF, but from an overall view, Europe seems to be recovering nicely. The problem with this one is that the UK is at a much higher level of the recovery level than continental Europe, but there is a recovery there. Would prefer something with UK in it.

COMMENT

Have done a very good job of executing. The only auto company that didn’t get help from the US government. What he likes, relative to the others is that they have executed incredibly well. Have some great products coming out. Slowly turning around the difficult parts of their business. Expects you will see some reasonable growth over the next little while, as the US picks up on the economic side. What may have caused a pull back on this stock is that there was some really strong pent-up demand motor vehicles from late 2009 until now and this has sort of tapered off slightly.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

One of the great things about this is that it has an unbelievable asset. It is going to be very hard to add another terminal like that on the West Coast. Thinks the stock got overvalued. Has also been hurt by what has happened in China which has affected a lot of resource companies over the last little while, especially in coal. He would look to buy this on a pull back.

BUY

Great long-term hold. Very good managers of their business and they understand the business. A holding company and have done a very good job of narrowing the discount. What some people don’t like is that they have done a little bit of financial engineering, so you have to believe that they are doing it fairly. Some great organic growth in the areas they are talking about, whether on the property side or the infrastructure side. Thinks there is going to be a lot of growth in infrastructure business and they will be able to buy some really great assets, especially as governments need to sell off a lot of assets.