Opinions
Mike Vinokur
Johnson & Johnson
JNJ-N
PAST TOP PICK
Jun 09, 2025
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Is a hodge-podge of consumer products, some medical business and an also-ran in businesses like hips and knees. This has always traded at a premium for being a well-run consumer package company that money managers can't get fired for owning. It's so big that it needs to be broken up.
Premium contentAfter spinoff, now just pharma and medical technologies/devices. One of 2 AAA-rated US companies (the other is MSFT). Pristine balance sheet forever. Divvy increases for 62 consecutive years, all from free cashflow. Crazy-cheap valuation of 14-15x PE, partly due to ongoing talc litigation. Yield is 3.34%.
Recent press release was like none other. Company stated talc litigation based on fake science; if the other side won't settle, JNJ will litigate each and every case separately. He suspects this is a ploy to force a settlement. Expects it to be over by year's end.
Premium contentIt reports Tuesday when we should get a legal update about those suing JNJ for cancer allegedly being in their talcum powder. It's been stuck in a range forever, though not in a perpetual downturn like other pharma. This could turn around on any big news on any new drug.
Premium contentAt Johnson & Johnson, we believe good health is the foundation of vibrant lives, thriving communities and forward progress. That’s why for almost 140 years, we have aimed to keep people well at every age and every stage of life. Today we are committed to using our reach and size for good. We strive to improve access and affordability, create healthier communities, and put a healthy mind, body and environment within reach of everyone, everywhere. Social media mentions are up 18% in the past 24h.
High in 2022, series of lower highs and lower lows since then. Only positive is that on the most recent pullback it pulled back to a higher low. If you own it as one position among many, you probably won't lose a bunch of $$. Doesn't see it being a leading stock in the near term.
Lean into companies that are economically sensitive with pricing power; if their costs go up tomorrow, they can raise prices the next day.
He sold it in March since the earnings estimates were coning down and the fair market value dropped a bit. There are better places to go for free cash flow. The whole health care space is being attacked by the government.