Stock price when the opinion was issued
SPG is now trading at 17.5x times' Forward P/E.
The company’s revenue was hit quite hard during the pandemic and SPG’s revenue and EBIT in the trailing twelve-month did not recover to 2019’s levels.
The balance sheet is quite leveraged like other REITs, with net debt of $24.8B.
Total debt is around 6.5x times trailing twelve-month cash flow of $3.8B, and cash flow grew slightly around 3% compared to $3.6B last year.
Based on consensus estimates, sales are expected to grow by 2% - 3% on average going forward.The company has been resilient and managed to pay predictable dividends.
Although the dividend yield looks attractive and would likely be sustainable in the near term, the potential of consistently increasing dividends in a foreseeable future and long-term capital appreciation is not high.
The business’s growth outlook is not impressive, and SPG may face potential headwinds for growth due to the transition to e-commerce.
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They own the best-quality malls. Shares rebounded in late 2021 to pre-Covid levels, but have struggled since. Their 6.8% dividend yield is less attractive amid high interest rates. But its just-released quarter revived shares. They delivered a big revenue beat of 7.2% YOY, funds from operation also beat, and had a super 92% occupancy rate. Minimum rents were 3% YOY. They raised their earnings forecast. Also, their Sparc operation will partner with fast fashion company, Shein, to expand their online marketplace to Forever 21 stores. Goldman Sachs expects malls and retail to expand next year as more people shore in stores.