Gerald Allaye-Chan Talisman Mining Ltd TLM-T BUY ON WEAKNESS May 29, 2009

This stock was very unattractive before the oil slide. At oil prices now, balance sheet gets weaker and the cash flow is about 3.9X. Valuation gets pricier, not horrible at 8.3X versus its peers at around 7.5. Dividend is not safe. Prefers others.

There are better companies out there. If you find something better to buy you should sell this one. You need to look at CVE-T, for example, or SU-T. TLM-T is at a 10-year low.

Chart shows a channel formation in 2012 and 2013, followed by a severe drop in the last half of 2014. This is not a good sign. Feels that the sudden drop has taken the stock so far from the mean that it should rebound. If crude continues lower, there is no bottom in sight for the stock. If you are trading, and it makes a 52-week low, he would sell immediately.

This is gassy and gas stocks are facing significant headwinds. We have an excess of gas in North America. Just doesn’t see much future for the company. Selling off assets because they need the money. There doesn’t seem to be a decent chance of having an LNG plant in the next year or 2 in Canada.

If they were being bought out, would he buy? It was not bought originally for a takeover. It means when it does happen, the reason for the investment is no longer there. He would get out of there, sell on the speculation.

When he sees what Repsol is paying for this company, he wonders what they are doing. If you own, take your money and run.

This didn’t get beaten up quite so badly because it had a nice takeover bid. If you own, he would suggest that you take your money and run.

Being acquired by Repsol. If you own, take the money and run. It was always a risk, even though it was slim, that the deal wouldn’t get done.

If you could sell it today and replace with something with more upside, you should consider it.

(A Top Pick May 2/14. Down 10.28%.) Sold his holdings. It turned out to be not as good a company as he had hoped.