This week’s new 52-week lows… (Dec 12-18)

Gas vs oil? As there is less oil production, associated natural gas production is falling. He owns BIR and was buying yesterday. AAV has performed well relative to other gas producers. He took profits on AAV recently and moved it into oil producers. BIR is trading at 2 times EV, but cuts its dividend by…

Debt concerns? BXE took bankruptcy protection when debt became too much. There is no equity value in it any longer. Companies that have debt that matures in 2020 or 2021 will have issues. He sees no issues with BIR or TVE on this topic. The new Federal relief program for large companies may be difficult…

It is a liquids rich player with very high liquids content. The problem is that the market cap is below the radar, and the debt is high. It was a $4 plus stock when we had decent gas prices. They are looking to bring their debt down. He thinks the company will survive. They've been…

HSE-T + CVE-T: Stay after the merger? He does not own either one. He understands the merger makes sense. There are a lot of cost savings that can be found. He prefers CNQ-T, PXT-T and one of his Top Picks today. He prefers these to HSE-T. If the sector bounces back you could get an…

(A Top Pick Oct 28/19, Up 3%) MTL.DB-T Convertible Bonds Maturing 2026, 5.75%. He sold them out of his equity portfolio but still owns them in his bond portfolio. He is very familiar with the company and they have a very consistent track record. There is an imbedded call option in the share that triggers…

Natural gas? The outlook for natural gas has improved as associated production has impacted by shut in oil production. He is not fond of PEY as they have covenant violations (that should be worked out). He has others he prefers.

Pengrowth (PGF-T) and Perpetual (PMT-T)? Had some challenges with their balance sheet over the last couple of years with the collapse in oil prices. This one would be a little riskier. If you really see a big jump in commodity prices, this probably has a lot more upside than Pengrowth (PGF-T).

Quebec is moving forward. They are having fabulous wells. They have higher net backs because of the lack of need for transportation. On a little bit of weakness the stock is one to keep an eye on.

Their balance sheet needs to be fixed, assets are scattered all over the world so operational focus is difficult. Their valuation is not compelling compared to other names. He has been a sell for years.

The company is very cheap in terms of price to book. Their book value was $4 at the end of June. However, they have a debt problem: $211 million of debt compared to an equity value of $369 million. He sees this as a takeover candidate especially now because he is seeing consolidation in the…

(A Top Pick Aug 13/18, Down 61%) They disenfranchised the Canadian shareholders. He sold out sooner before the de listing, so did not do as badly, nor did his subscribers. He disagrees with their move.

Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly With the economy looking to get back on its feet, this is a good entry for a high-quality energy producer. Trading at 85% of book value and with a PEG of 0.34, it is strong value now. We would buy with a stop-loss at $4.50, looking to achieve $8.75 --…

Their leverage is the sore spot for this company. They have a note coming up and they do not have the cash right now. The company is working on the debt issue and trying to unlock restricted cash. If you are a super bull on oil, then you could try but there are other names…

The dividend stocks as a group has underperformed. There's nothing wrong with the fund. He would prefer technology stocks although they don't pay dividends.

If we have a warm winter, it debases the bullish theme. We are seeing a warmer winter and gas has fallen from its peak. There are some companies in the gas space that would be buys, but this is a hard buy in the current moment, especially with the struggle for investor relevance. He would…

(A Top Pick Dec 19/19, Down 52%) It continues to offer meaningful leverage for rising oil prices. They hedged off 50% of their oil exposure next year. He does not own this for this reason.

He won't buy any service stocks today. It just isn't profitable; the market isn't rewarding drilling. Stop drilling and buy stocks, is his message to the oil industry. He'd rather buy Trican who are buying back stock.

It would not be a name he would own. The number of market participants are very small. There is a certain market-cap threshold for market relevance. There is a pressure for MnA. It has higher cost, medium heavy oil company. They suspended dividends.

They have cut back and preserved capital. They do not have a debt issue. They are a gas play. If gas prices stay strong, they should do well. She anticipates their 4th quarter production being lower. She is not buying it today, but the future looks good.

They did a flow through share. The company is involved in oil and Nat. gas. He has a $1.20 target on it. If they can generate more cash flow they can get the debt down. He likes it. He may add on weakness.

Enterprise value is very cheap. But the issue is they have debt. They did an infrastructure deal to reduce that debt. A big part of that debt is a 2024 maturity at a low interest rate, so Crew will survive. Their liquids are in a condensate-rich area. The stock has been hammered because of high…

Just beat earnings and have increased production. Cheap valuation compared to peers. But it's getting more expensive heading into 2021. There's no growth here, but that goes with the entire oil patch. The real issue is will they survive. Their balance sheet is getting better, but still high for a blue-chip name. You'll be saved…

He stayed away because they went to the states to make acquisitions. He did not know why the Americans would not already take these assets. He stays away from it.

This gives you a large operational leverage to oil prices rising. Their primary asset is burdened with high royalty rates. After $50 oil, every dollar is very significant for free cashflow. At $50 oil, they would trade at 3.3 times and at $60 at 2.4 times. Historically, they traded at 8 times. However, the market…

An oil and gas drilling company in North America. Oil and gas services companies have additional leverage on the oil markets which already have significant volatility. If we get into the positive sweet spot it can raise prices and make a lot of money, but we are not there yet. They have been through multiple…

NexGen vs. Fission He owns both Fission and NexGen. They're far from infrastructure in the Athabasca Basin and would be challenged if it wasn't for their deposits being large and of quality (and next to each other). They could get built as a pair. The Fission deposit is borderline-tier one deposit, whole Nexgen's is. The…

(A Top Pick Jan 06/20, Down 23%) All energy stocks were painted with the same brush. Dividend should be raised in Q1 or Q2. Things have stabilized, management has changed and should be more dynamic. Worth a look at these levels.

They have done some good acquisitions and they have heavy oil exposure, but the liquidity is just too slight.

A mico-cap that had some major issues. He would not look at this at all.

It rose 4x since the mid-March low. Production is and will shut down in Q2 and Q3, and won't return until Q4. They are seeking financial support from the EDC and BDC, which are not giving support to any Canadian oil companies. There needs to be more support though reports today say that the rules…

It is quite a small company. It is hugely volatile. There a lot of problems over the years with the pricing of data coming from India regarding a 10% stake in another company. They have too much debt. The price of the gas they sell has been negotiated. A tough name to predict.

(A Top Pick Oct 22/18, Down 88%) He sold at $3.22, taking a big loss. They have a lot of worries. They are looking to sell the company. They might just liquidate the company, but clean up could be very expensive. He does not like stock consolidations and used that as a trigger to get…

The biggest land driller in Canada and one of the largest in North America. They still generated free cashflow even during challenging times. At $50 oil, they can generate free cashflow equivalent to their market cap if producers drill to maintain production. Downside is limited since they generated free cash this year still. (Analysts’ price…

In tough shape. They made the wrong bet on natural gas. Sell it and buy elsewhere. But it will pay off over five years.

Has nat gas exposure--and he's bearish on all nat gas stocks. Market cap is way too low for investors to really care for in this sector.

70% fracking and then they have coil tubing. They are pretty cheap. They are doing reasonably well. It is really, really cheap. The two biggest shareholders are funds so liquidity is an issue Buy on weakness; he would have a target of $5.

(A Top Pick Oct 01/20, Up 32.9%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with SU is advancing nicely. We recommend trailing the stop up to $17.75 (currently at $13.50). This would all but guarantee a minimum return over 9%.

He does not own any service names. Oil company spending will go to dividend increases, share buybacks or deleveraging. Production growth related spending is a couple years away. Bullish elements for gas has been offset by decrease in production. It is too expensive right now for him to buy.

A huge laggard this year. It is trailing other names at 20-30%. They have not yet reinstated dividends. They should reinstate it early next year. At current levels, the stock trades at 14% free cashflow yield. At $50-$60 oil, it trades at 30%-60% free cashflow yield for dividends and buy-backs. (Analysts’ price target is $2.46)

TOU is the cream of the crop. They focus on natural gas, which has lagged, but will catch up. The balance sheet outshines its peers. Their cash can pick up more companies. Managers have been buying shares. Lots of upside. (Analysts’ price target is $26.97)

Liked their ability to buy back shares from free cash flow. But then management decided to chase growth, so he divested. Decent gas exposure. Its recovery is still too low to attract investor interest. Better names to own.

It's been stuck at these levels for a long time, but likes recent volumes. No problem buying this one.

Forestry space He owns no names. The stocks are okay but face trade disputes and an economic slowdown that will hit housing stocks. The stocks have been beaten up.

(A Top Pick Dec 26/20, Up 81%) He sold mid-last year, too soon. Housing proved to be very strong. He would buy it again if lumber prices pulled back again.

Has an old mine outside of Los Angeles that was run in the 1930s. Closed down during the Second World War and they are doing open pit mining in the area. Has some issues, but at these gold prices, it will probably start to work again. Under followed. Highly speculative.

The company has suspended its dividend. They operate diamond mines in South Africa. They are looking into underground, from open pit. The cost is more expensive than thought. The price of diamonds has been reduced, though retail prices won’t change.

Agnico-Eagle (AEM-T) came in a while ago and made a 9.9% stake in this company. The stock went up, but it really hasn’t done much since then. Then Barrick (ABX-T) came in and said they really liked the deposit and wanted to do a joint venture. This is a much better approach that is better…

Likes the managers, but concerned with the topography. A decent-sized gold project. A good speculation.

(Top Pick Mar 8/11, Down 65.85%)

He's owned this for two decades. ALS has been weak lately because a lot of its cash from royalties from coal mines. Alberta suspects coal gets backed out by natural gas, which means ALS's free cash flow from that gas will decline in the next five years. This stock is still very cheap based on…

Wallbridge Mining to buy Balmoral It depends on your timeframe--some will take the premium in Balmoral and grab the profit. He expects in two years that the deal will benefit shareholders with lower costs. The Abitibi is a great gold district. If he owned this, he'd hang onto it.

Copper equities in general have had a huge move since the bottom. The commodity has been bust for the last 10 years. There is a lot more room for copper to grow. As long as the balance sheet is not too bad, and it is a good company, then it is a good buy.

This now has a project in Mongolia which has epithermal veins, which he loves. When you do find them and they carry great grades, it can grow really fast. This has a 50 g/meter width quite prominent with something like 16% which gets him excited. Still very early stage.

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. The sector and in particular the company has shown good momentum. Good cash flow off-sets their stretched balance sheet. Cheap on valuation. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

Earnings expectations are for a $0.14 loss this year per share, compared to $1.23 from last year. The company has recovered to strongly on the US housing market recovery. Based on historic valuations relative to book value he sees a range of $11 to $16 for the share price. It has a good balance sheet.…

“Jumps and Steps” – quite common in junior companies. Each jump is a news item. As it gets closer to production, it will keep on doing this. Pullbacks are due to profit taking. Must stay above the $0.30 level, otherwise it may be bad news.

This is a zero, although not priced there yet. That is where it is going. It has been a lousy company for a long time. Madagascar will prove to be their undoing. They defaulted on their debt in February. Their debt is currently worth 54 cents on the dollar so the stock is worth zero.

This is on his watch list. He is not familiar with their fundamentals. Today's earnings release will help define their future.

They intend to spin out their western Canadian retail real assets to become an owner of office and industrial assets in North America. Investors will receive units of this new small-cap REIT, which will be difficult to value. The hope is that the office/industrial REIT will see a re-rating of its value. Spin-outs often don't…

Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly BDT operates as a contractor in the Canadian construction market. As new vaccines roll out, we bet work on infrastructure projects will ramp up quickly in the new year. It pays a good dividend that is backed by a 71% payout ratio. We would buy this with a $6.50 stop-loss,…

All Canadian banks are good quality with good dividend growth.

Wouldn't buy. On the surface, yield of 4.6% appears competitive. Cut the dividend by 50% in 2018. Strategically making the right moves by making acquisitions into high net worth asset management, which has better demographics and margins. But what's the return going to be? Earnings have flatlined. Value trap.

It broke a down trend. It has pretty weak upside. The recent level of highs has not been taken out. It is struggling.

GWO vs. MFC Likes Great West because of its strong yield of about 4.76%. MFC dividend is 4.63%. Both have performed well since March 2020. Quite similar. MFC provides more foreign exposure, especially Asia. Insurers are doing well now, and benefit from steepening yield curves.

It is a difficult stock to own in this environment. The pandemic has shut them. He believes the distribution has been suspended. They have impaired cash flow and higher level.

A Quebec based financial services, insurance, financial advice and brokerage. They have been caught up in the brought sell-off in financial stocks. Interest rates being low has hurt them. However, he sees interest rates rising as the economy improves. Top 3% on valuation, 8x PE, 4x cashflow and 1x book value. It is cheap with…

(A Top Pick Dec 04/19, Up 13%) He'd buy it again. Nice value stock. Nice yield. Trading at discount to book. Would benefit from rising interest rates, which he expects. Cheaper than all the banks.

He is not bull on the office space. They have been growing in sub-markets he is not keen on. 37% is in Atlantic Canada and he is not keen on their holdings.

(A Top Pick May 14/18, Down 21%) It had a tough go since he was on. He continues to believe it is one of the best plays to get exposure to bit coin. It is a well run company.

(A Top Pick Feb 24/16. Down 43.33%.) This was a big disappointment. They changed their focus on their business plan. He got stopped out. They were basically doing loans to doctors, but have now changed and is doing software service. The market didn’t like that.

Small and obscure and in commercial real estate that he doesn't like. This will suffer if there's a downturn. This is also small-cap; better to buy a larger-cap REIT.

Is there any growth in the investment business? AGF's balance sheet is too big for what they earn. Potential write-offs must happen to bring that down. Asset management businesses are being killed. $10.84 is his target price--lots of upside and they can cover their dividend.

He owns this one and likes the management team. There seems to be a consistent buyer of this stock. They have high margins. It is not cheap at these levels. There are not too many ways to play technology from a real estate perspective. They have a strong position on pricing data in the real…

The banks lagged this past year, but their earnings delivered as capital markets delivered. Interest rates have hurt this year, but should tick higher in the future. The banks hold excess capital. They've more than covered loan-loss provisions. They will buy back shares again and do acquisitions. He now likes Canadian banks for the first…

Blackstone took over Dream Global, and DRM got a large cheque out of it in their holdings and asset management contract. They've since done a large issuer bid that that the biggest shareholder, the CEO, tendered into below NAV. So, the NAV has grown. DRM will benefit from lower interest rates. (Analysts’ price target is…

He really has to like it. It got pummelled in the COVID melt-down and since then it has been working in a rough sideways direction, but it is way below its normal valuations standards while the earnings forecasts have bounced back powerfully. It will also help if interest rates go up. He thinks this stock…

IGM-T vs. MIC-T. He would prefer MIC-T. He likes the underlying fundamentals, but has always worried about a real estate downturn and how it would affect it. He prefers it to IGM-T where he does not see how the fee structure would be sustainable in the long run.

This is a way to play the millennial fintech market with a dash of crypto. The stock made its IPO at 10, then pulled back sharply. They have a platform that allows millennials (or anyone else) to get loans, mortgages, and other financial products -- now including a crypto layer. There are 10 million millennials…

(A Top Pick Feb 16/16. Up 6.28%.) This has some creative stuff and he had been looking for bond portfolios that are actively managed and a little bit outside the normal ETF’s. He is still buying some of this.

ZUB-T vs. ZBK-T. If you are thinking long term, he would go into the hedged version. It is not time to step into US banks yet. We will likely make lower lows. You are not owning them for dividend payout these days.

HPB Energy Bull+ ETF. Immediate leverage to oil price moves. If you have a very good near-term bet that you want to make on oil this would be the way to go but if you are looking for an investment in the oil patch that has a long-term investment implications, then you should go to…

Cuts in dividends? This ETF covered writes about 33% of the portfolio. The higher volatility in energy adds well to value -- buffering about 10% of the total loss. The dividends could be cut entirely by the companies. The premiums would likely maintained.

HBP S&P 500 Bull (HSU-T) or BMO Equal Weight US Banks Hedged To CDN$ (ZUB-T)? These are 2 completely different things. A lot of people are negative on Bull+ and Bear+ ETFs but he thinks there is a place for these things but he doesn’t think it is here. Thinks it is going to be…

This is a call on oil. He is not going to want to buy a lot of oil. This is the 15 largest companies and they write covered calls. You will collect much higher premiums for the calls. But he would be cautious of this one.

Both the US and Canada governments are now less supportive of the energy sector overall. However, because of cut-back in capital expenditure, the reflation story is positive for the next year. Crude oil prices can climb to $50-$60. Ultimately, this will not be sustainable but you could be over-weight for the next 6-12 months.

Europe, Australia, and Far East so has been affected by Brexit. A good ETF but hasn't performed well. Could buy ZWE, which is more European based. Would like to see more U.S. exposure.

(A Top Pick August 8/17, Up 8%) This holds what’s left over from the XIU 60. Wanted to get into some smaller stuff to get better diversification, and focus on this rather than the broader-based indices.

It's the US small caps index. They do better in times of declining yields and higher growth. This is good if you want to hunker down and hedge the US dollar. Small caps are beat up, but he predicts a rotation in the coming year to favour small caps. XSU is decent, but he prefers…

He would recommend taking a tax loss on this and buying into his energy fund. His fund has fewer names and a larger average market cap. The ETF is passive -- he prefers active management.

In general, US financials have had trouble tracking the S&P. He's underweight financials. Net interest margins, loan losses, economic uncertainty. Had moved up, but now back down.

Over time it will come back. They have a strong position in liquor retailing and have moved into Cannabis. They are clearly going to be a survivor. They are going to be able to consolidate.

Good name in the TSX. One of the better growth names. 15% growth rate going forward. 24x forward PE. He's not into consumer staples at this point, favours cyclicals.

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. It is showing better momentum and 5i likes it. It is cheap on valuation and is less vulnerable to changing customer taste. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

Auto parts stocks can be value traps. They often have high ROE, low debt. Problem is they're cyclical, depending on how auto sales are doing. Feast or famine. He prefers companies that can increase earnings through thick and thin. Be very careful. Not long-term holdings, they're rentals.

It is unbelievable where this stock is trading at. Acquisitions this year are worth less than half what they paid for them. It was trading at less than half what it was worth. They are trading below the amount of cash they have. It shocks him how far it continues to go down.

One of his core holdings. They are continuing to grow their margins. It is trading at a huge discount to other alcohol companies. (Analysts’ price target is $17.00)

(A Top Pick Jun 18/18, Up 1%) Still likes it. It's well-run. They're growing their brands and they have a big opportunity to get into cannabis beverages which will be legal in Canada in October 2019. BRB is well-positioned for this and this market could be very large.

It was doing everything well and they were going to sell the business before the pandemic. Now, the business is ruined. With social distancing and lack of good movies, it is un-investable.

In general terms still on a downtrend. Bearish big picture. Could get back into the 20 dollars.

They bought Newfoundland Capital. It is a radio operator now. Debt is high but they keep increasing their dividend. People see them as background music in a retail environment. It is an okay stock and he would like it a lot better with a lot less debt.

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Their Q3 report was very positive and beat estimates. The revenue forecast is 40% compared to last year. The EBITDA forecast is nearly 75% of 2019 levels. The stock should start being more noticed. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

Provides a service very similar to Alphabet (GOOGL-Q), which is provided for free. When your competitor is providing your services free, it is tough to be competitive.

A contract manufacturer for electronics, communications, and storage. The move to the cloud has benefited them. The stock has struggled for a while but it is too cheap to ignore right now. Top 10% on valuation. 0.6x book value, 4.3x enterprise to EBITA, and 4x cashflow. A cashflow machine with no concerns on the balance…

This was $80 a few years ago, then an acquisition of Digital Globe (made a lot of sense) made investors worry about the balance sheet, but that's improving as they pay down debt. The DG deal married DG's orbital satellites with Maxar's existing software to analyze that data from outer space, which is important to…

Just announced a discovery in Columbia. Flow tested over 2000 barrels per day. This well could produce up to 5000 when brought into production. A very well distributed stock so it might not jump too fast. Company could get taken out.

(A Top Pick Oct 15/19, Up 20%) Operates MRI clinics in the US. Now second largest in the US. Can consolidate and grow. Substantial margins in the mid-20s. Impressive management team. Still likes it at these levels.

(A Top Pick Dec 20/18, Down 40%) It had a good turn in January. Beaten down stocks can have a nice bounce in January.

There's always something that stops him from entering the seniors space in REITs: labour, regulator issues, though again demographics are a positive. That isn't a good enough, though. How will governments with huge debts supplement the entire seniors home space? However, EXE is cheap. Doesn't see this space as uninvestible--too volatile.

They hit a financing crisis and needed cash. So, they issued 20 billion share at 1.5 cents per share. A massive dilution that destroyed the shareholder base. Avoid.

A US company like EIF-T, and is it like Cargojet? No, not like Cargojet, and he can't compare EIF to an US company. But a Canadian comparable is Onex, a holding company that owns industrials and several small airlines that served remote regions (i.e. northern Quebec). All airlines are struggling now, but these remote areas…

A safer way to play copper with a nice dividend. This kind of name tends to outperform the market for a couple months after a trough. A name that has displayed rigorous cost containment over the last 5 years. (Analysts’ price target is $28.00)

Very cheap, trading below book value. Balance sheet is a little heavy. Great yield. Historically miss earnings. Consolidate a declining industry and try to rationalize it by cutting costs. He holds if for the yield and the valuation. Have to be patient.

It formed a nice base. It has a strong yield. It is coming out the last few days. We are getting close to a break out.

He bought it as a value play with sum of the parts worth more than it was trading at. They are trying to sell some of the parts. Thinks they will sell all the parts and distribute the cash. $4-$5 breakup value. It is taking longer than he thought to break it up.