This week’s new 52-week lows… (Dec 12-18)

Another challenged Canadian energy company. Unless there's a change in management or strategy, he doesn't see this going anywhere.

They are more levered towards natural gas. It all comes down to being able to live with the volatility. Anything related to Montney natural gas is betting on LNG, which may not come quickly enough. He would stay away.

It is a liquids rich player with very high liquids content. The problem is that the market cap is below the radar, and the debt is high. It was a $4 plus stock when we had decent gas prices. They are looking to bring their debt down. He thinks the company will survive. They've been…

ATH vs HSE vs MEG? The clear stand out is MEG, who is 55% hedged at $59 oil prices. ATH has a high cost project with Hangingstone and is burning cash, although they have enough liquidity for the next 9 months. He would never own HSE, because of their ESG issues. All bets are off…

Convertible bonds with a 5.75% coupon They own a great base of real estate. The debt issue is a small piece. The bond is well-covered. MTL.DV-T. You get a 6-year option on the stock within the bond, with a $14 convert price. If oil recovers, these bonds will convert into equity. Until then, collect then.…

They are the poster child for the woes of the AECo market. They have debt to cash flow of 4 times. They are maintaining production. We are over 70% through winter and we have seen demand down 14% in North America this season. The outlook is bleak. Natural gas stocks are a play on weather…

Pengrowth (PGF-T) and Perpetual (PMT-T)? Had some challenges with their balance sheet over the last couple of years with the collapse in oil prices. This one would be a little riskier. If you really see a big jump in commodity prices, this probably has a lot more upside than Pengrowth (PGF-T).

Quebec is moving forward. They are having fabulous wells. They have higher net backs because of the lack of need for transportation. On a little bit of weakness the stock is one to keep an eye on.

Fed bailout? He has no idea yet if VET or PXT would qualify if there was a Federal government incentive. He does not expect a bailout; rather, a lump sum of money available for financing.

The company is very cheap in terms of price to book. Their book value was $4 at the end of June. However, they have a debt problem: $211 million of debt compared to an equity value of $369 million. He sees this as a takeover candidate especially now because he is seeing consolidation in the…

(A Top Pick Aug 13/18, Down 61%) They disenfranchised the Canadian shareholders. He sold out sooner before the de listing, so did not do as badly, nor did his subscribers. He disagrees with their move.

Natrual gas prices? The 2021 strip price for AECO is over $2. That will work for strong balance sheet producers like TOU, NVA (60% natural gas), and ARX.

ATH vs HSE vs MEG? The clear stand out is MEG, who is 55% hedged at $59 oil prices. ATH has a high cost project with Hangingstone and is burning cash, although they have enough liquidity for the next 9 months. He would never own HSE, because of their ESG issues. All bets are off…

He owns this. The stock is getting hit by what is happening in Kitimat as they provide worker mobile housing. He is under water on this one. He is happy to hold it and has it on his buy list. Once the pipeline issue is resolved, he believes their key project will go ahead.

Debt to cash flow is under 2x last year. Natural gas prices are holding well. It now pays a 17% dividend that their cash flow can sustain. He's been adding to his position. There's a huge disconnect between this stock price and its fundamentals. No reality, just fear. The balance sheet is fine and the…

(A Top Pick Apr 26/19, Down 85%) He sold out when oil prices dropped to the mid-$30s. He will own it again and likes their hedge book, which is 48% hedged. They luckily refinanced their debt out to 2027 just before the COVID crisis took hold.

He won't buy any service stocks today. It just isn't profitable; the market isn't rewarding drilling. Stop drilling and buy stocks, is his message to the oil industry. He'd rather buy Trican who are buying back stock.

There are a couple of knocks in terms of leverage. They have more older well bores. Management don't own enough stock.

They have cut back and preserved capital. They do not have a debt issue. They are a gas play. If gas prices stay strong, they should do well. She anticipates their 4th quarter production being lower. She is not buying it today, but the future looks good.

They did a flow through share. The company is involved in oil and Nat. gas. He has a $1.20 target on it. If they can generate more cash flow they can get the debt down. He likes it. He may add on weakness.

Enterprise value is very cheap. But the issue is they have debt. They did an infrastructure deal to reduce that debt. A big part of that debt is a 2024 maturity at a low interest rate, so Crew will survive. Their liquids are in a condensate-rich area. The stock has been hammered because of high…

Weakness in share price recently is related to their moving HQ into the US. Their strategy for the move is to trigger share buying in the US as they become part of a larger market index, he thinks. There is no guarantee this will happen in the US, so this is a pretty risky strategy.…

He stayed away because they went to the states to make acquisitions. He did not know why the Americans would not already take these assets. He stays away from it.

It is astounding how good quality companies with good hedge books, like ERF, have fallen like all the other energy companies. They have about half of their production hedged for this year. They have 20% hedged at $57 and another 22% priced at $11 premium to spot prices. He sees meaningful upside once we pass…

They paid down the debt recently and are in very good shape. They are doing less CAP-X this year. His target is $1.20 so there is lots of upside. It will be a Q4 opportunity.

NexGen vs. Fission He owns both Fission and NexGen. They're far from infrastructure in the Athabasca Basin and would be challenged if it wasn't for their deposits being large and of quality (and next to each other). They could get built as a pair. The Fission deposit is borderline-tier one deposit, whole Nexgen's is. The…

Hold or buy a pipeline? He owns this one for his clients. They may decrease drilling, but when other companies reduce drilling they are forced to sell off royalty interests -- this is good for them. They are slow and steady. CN's pension plan owns this as well in a big way. It appears to…

They have done some good acquisitions and they have heavy oil exposure, but the liquidity is just too slight.

A mico-cap that had some major issues. He would not look at this at all.

A very small cap stock under $10M with debt over $50M. 66% of their production is liquids; the rest is nat. gas. They'll likely cut back production, but if they can keep production flat and free up some cash flow to pay the debt, they may get supports from their lenders. They'll be a long-term…

It is quite a small company. It is hugely volatile. There a lot of problems over the years with the pricing of data coming from India regarding a 10% stake in another company. They have too much debt. The price of the gas they sell has been negotiated. A tough name to predict.

(A Top Pick Oct 22/18, Down 88%) He sold at $3.22, taking a big loss. They have a lot of worries. They are looking to sell the company. They might just liquidate the company, but clean up could be very expensive. He does not like stock consolidations and used that as a trigger to get…

This was his largest holding as of a week ago, but he sold out last week as oil producers getting hit hard. With oil imploding, he expects capex budgets will get slashed. It is difficult to see how this stock would do well, when producers are cutting back.

In tough shape. They made the wrong bet on natural gas. Sell it and buy elsewhere. But it will pay off over five years.

Has nat gas exposure--and he's bearish on all nat gas stocks. Market cap is way too low for investors to really care for in this sector.

70% fracking and then they have coil tubing. They are pretty cheap. They are doing reasonably well. It is really, really cheap. The two biggest shareholders are funds so liquidity is an issue Buy on weakness; he would have a target of $5.

He had a sensitivity sheet that calculated SU is burning through about $4.1 billion at $30 oil. They would have adequate capacity if they were to cut the dividend -- not 100%, because they would be dropped from the dividend funds. He thinks he could do better in other names. Yield 8.3%

It is difficult to be bullish on the service sector. The rig count in Canada will be decimated he thinks. When you look at the opportunity set out there, he thinks there are better opportunities.

A high quality asset base and good success in conventional wells. Management meets and beats guidance. CPP owns about 30% of their shares. They do not have a very good hedge book unfortunately. This keeps him on the sidelines for now.

Natrual gas prices? The 2021 strip price for AECO is over $2. That will work for strong balance sheet producers like TOU, NVA (60% natural gas), and ARX.

A long term holding for him. Now is not the time sell. The oil patch has struggled as a whole. They have the flexibility to stop drilling when economics are poor. The stock is cheap here and they have had good drill results recently. At this small market cap (under $100 million) it is not…

It's been stuck at these levels for a long time, but likes recent volumes. No problem buying this one.

Forestry space He owns no names. The stocks are okay but face trade disputes and an economic slowdown that will hit housing stocks. The stocks have been beaten up.

Lumber prices and stocks were under a lot of pressure last year. Today you have strong US housing and demand. This is an attractive entry point. A bid to take it private was withdrawn and the stock dropped. (Analysts’ price target is $16.38)

Has an old mine outside of Los Angeles that was run in the 1930s. Closed down during the Second World War and they are doing open pit mining in the area. Has some issues, but at these gold prices, it will probably start to work again. Under followed. Highly speculative.

The company has suspended its dividend. They operate diamond mines in South Africa. They are looking into underground, from open pit. The cost is more expensive than thought. The price of diamonds has been reduced, though retail prices won’t change.

Agnico-Eagle (AEM-T) came in a while ago and made a 9.9% stake in this company. The stock went up, but it really hasn’t done much since then. Then Barrick (ABX-T) came in and said they really liked the deposit and wanted to do a joint venture. This is a much better approach that is better…

Likes the managers, but concerned with the topography. A decent-sized gold project. A good speculation.

(Top Pick Mar 8/11, Down 65.85%)

He's owned this for two decades. ALS has been weak lately because a lot of its cash from royalties from coal mines. Alberta suspects coal gets backed out by natural gas, which means ALS's free cash flow from that gas will decline in the next five years. This stock is still very cheap based on…

Wallbridge Mining to buy Balmoral It depends on your timeframe--some will take the premium in Balmoral and grab the profit. He expects in two years that the deal will benefit shareholders with lower costs. The Abitibi is a great gold district. If he owned this, he'd hang onto it.

Copper pricing seems to be Firming here. Commodities are starting to come off from a bottom here. It is 9 years into a bull market and into a recovery. If you are going to play it, this is probably a not bad place to be. Copper looks interesting here.

This now has a project in Mongolia which has epithermal veins, which he loves. When you do find them and they carry great grades, it can grow really fast. This has a 50 g/meter width quite prominent with something like 16% which gets him excited. Still very early stage.

It has returned to previous support from November. He would look at the $9 range. If it breaks below that they we have a problem, otherwise it will base at this level before going up to $16.

Refunding of tariffs It's on his shortlist as he watches the forestry group. The tariffs refund are definitely good. He wants to see longer-term stability in housing starts first. Reason is that a lot of housing are steel and concrete condos, not wooden houses. The whole sector is under a cloud, though bottoming now. He'd…

“Jumps and Steps” – quite common in junior companies. Each jump is a news item. As it gets closer to production, it will keep on doing this. Pullbacks are due to profit taking. Must stay above the $0.30 level, otherwise it may be bad news.

Historically owned bonds. If the trend for nickel continues, it will do well.

This is on his watch list. He is not familiar with their fundamentals. Today's earnings release will help define their future.

Their assets were all in Alberta. They are trying to switch their portfolio and are trying to reduce debt. They have increased their occupancy rates. They are trading at 14 times Price to AFFO. They want to become more of an Industrial portfolio. It is a work in progress. In his neutral bucket. You could…

This is a tough business to be in as construction and design are low margin businesses. The last couple of quarters showed some operational hiccups. He needs to see these issues turn around before investing. He thinks there are other ways to play the infrastructure wave, such as Brookfield or SNC Lavalin.

At this particular point in time, he wouldn't put fresh capital in the bank sector. They are near their high. A good company but a little too rich. He would wait a few weeks or month to participate in any of the banks.

It's cheap and a pretty well run business, but the mutual fund business is not as good as it was 10-15 years ago. Fees in the financial services sector are under pressure. The long term challenges in the industry would keep him away from the stock.

It broke a down trend. It has pretty weak upside. The recent level of highs has not been taken out. It is struggling.

Likes it a lot and recommended it a few weeks ago as yields have been bottoming and flattening out. Yields will rise long-term, he predict, which will benefit lifecos like this. GWO broke its downtrend at end-2018, rose, hit a second bottom (a double-bottom) and is now accelerating higher.

He does not think their distribution level is sustainable. They don’t have the right dividend coverage or distribution level.

Over the last year you have seen a significant growth. It is on his radar screen. The securities side and the banking side are both doing well. He would be interested if it pulled back.

Doesn't like the merger with POW. Sell PWF and buy Aecon? Don't because Aecon has its own issues, and the merger makes sense. PWF/POW was an old-1980s structure and needed to consolidate to raise the overall value. Problem is, there's is little growth in the company's existing businesses. Mutual funds are getting crushed by ETFs,…

He is not bull on the office space. They have been growing in sub-markets he is not keen on. 37% is in Atlantic Canada and he is not keen on their holdings.

(A Top Pick May 14/18, Down 21%) It had a tough go since he was on. He continues to believe it is one of the best plays to get exposure to bit coin. It is a well run company.

(A Top Pick Feb 24/16. Down 43.33%.) This was a big disappointment. They changed their focus on their business plan. He got stopped out. They were basically doing loans to doctors, but have now changed and is doing software service. The market didn’t like that.

Small and obscure and in commercial real estate that he doesn't like. This will suffer if there's a downturn. This is also small-cap; better to buy a larger-cap REIT.

Is there any growth in the investment business? AGF's balance sheet is too big for what they earn. Potential write-offs must happen to bring that down. Asset management businesses are being killed. $10.84 is his target price--lots of upside and they can cover their dividend.

He owns this one and likes the management team. There seems to be a consistent buyer of this stock. They have high margins. It is not cheap at these levels. There are not too many ways to play technology from a real estate perspective. They have a strong position on pricing data in the real…

Preferred shares? He holds preferreds for their clients. These are senior to common stock and are more risky than bonds. The preferred market is unique to Canada and lacks liquidity at times. The yields are very attractive at 6% or higher. Just be careful of the difference between the "rate reset" offerings that renew their…

Blackstone took over Dream Global, and DRM got a large cheque out of it in their holdings and asset management contract. They've since done a large issuer bid that that the biggest shareholder, the CEO, tendered into below NAV. So, the NAV has grown. DRM will benefit from lower interest rates. (Analysts’ price target is…

(A Top Pick Sep 12/19, Up 2%) He still thinks Prem Watsa will deliver. FFH has a global reach and long-term commitment to India. $540-600 band is supportive, but he's looking for upside above $600-620. If so, this could go to $800.

The family of companies are well run. There are headwinds investing in a mutual fund business. It rallied back recently and pays a decent dividend. The dividend is safe.

This is a way to play the millennial fintech market with a dash of crypto. The stock made its IPO at 10, then pulled back sharply. They have a platform that allows millennials (or anyone else) to get loans, mortgages, and other financial products -- now including a crypto layer. There are 10 million millennials…

(A Top Pick Feb 16/16. Up 6.28%.) This has some creative stuff and he had been looking for bond portfolios that are actively managed and a little bit outside the normal ETF’s. He is still buying some of this.

ZUB-T vs. ZBK-T. If you are thinking long term, he would go into the hedged version. It is not time to step into US banks yet. We will likely make lower lows. You are not owning them for dividend payout these days.

HPB Energy Bull+ ETF. Immediate leverage to oil price moves. If you have a very good near-term bet that you want to make on oil this would be the way to go but if you are looking for an investment in the oil patch that has a long-term investment implications, then you should go to…

Cuts in dividends? This ETF covered writes about 33% of the portfolio. The higher volatility in energy adds well to value -- buffering about 10% of the total loss. The dividends could be cut entirely by the companies. The premiums would likely maintained.

HBP S&P 500 Bull (HSU-T) or BMO Equal Weight US Banks Hedged To CDN$ (ZUB-T)? These are 2 completely different things. A lot of people are negative on Bull+ and Bear+ ETFs but he thinks there is a place for these things but he doesn’t think it is here. Thinks it is going to be…

This is a call on oil. He is not going to want to buy a lot of oil. This is the 15 largest companies and they write covered calls. You will collect much higher premiums for the calls. But he would be cautious of this one.

The composition of this ETF has become highly concentrated. Five names account for 78% of its value. CNQ and SU account for most it. Both of those names have rallied well compared to their peers as buyers in the US have been stepping in. However, their hedge books are naked to oil prices right now.…

Europe, Australia, and Far East so has been affected by Brexit. A good ETF but hasn't performed well. Could buy ZWE, which is more European based. Would like to see more U.S. exposure.

(A Top Pick August 8/17, Up 8%) This holds what’s left over from the XIU 60. Wanted to get into some smaller stuff to get better diversification, and focus on this rather than the broader-based indices.

Not an area he would pay attention to though it is interesting. In good economic times, small caps are the place to be. In this cycle, the big caps and tech has been carrying the ball. The ETF hasn’t gone anywhere. Maybe small-caps aren’t doing well this cycle. We are also late in the cycle…

He would recommend taking a tax loss on this and buying into his energy fund. His fund has fewer names and a larger average market cap. The ETF is passive -- he prefers active management.

ZUB-T vs. ZBK-T. If you are thinking long term, he would go into the hedged version. It is not time to step into US banks yet. We will likely make lower lows. You are not owning them for dividend payout these days.

The dividend was very high, almost too high. The dividend was illuminated and the stock price took a hit. They are active in the alcohol space and marijuana. Have been raising money, and could be a potential acquisition for Aurora.

They have low price points and do well during recessions. She owns a different store based in the US instead. She would hold it if you own it, but at 21 times earnings, she would not be buying yet.

He likes the price momentum and the fact they bought back a large number of shares. With strong employment and wage growth, they will do well in the consumer discretionary spending space. There are few competitors in the space. Yield 0.67% (Analysts’ price target is $63.04)

Magna He owns Linamar instead. Both are suffering from perception with EPS plunging--car sales have peaked and there are fears that ride sharing will dominate more. Will people keep buying new cars? If so, these companies will do well. But both are great companies that should grow market share by acquisition and diversifying their businesses.

It is unbelievable where this stock is trading at. Acquisitions this year are worth less than half what they paid for them. It was trading at less than half what it was worth. They are trading below the amount of cash they have. It shocks him how far it continues to go down.

One of his core holdings. They are continuing to grow their margins. It is trading at a huge discount to other alcohol companies. (Analysts’ price target is $17.00)

(A Top Pick Jun 18/18, Up 1%) Still likes it. It's well-run. They're growing their brands and they have a big opportunity to get into cannabis beverages which will be legal in Canada in October 2019. BRB is well-positioned for this and this market could be very large.

Being purchased? Why its trading over the $34 offer price is possibly due to short covering. There is a long period before the deal closes and Cineplex still has a chance of finding a higher bid. He would continue to hold it to tender and not sell.

In general terms still on a downtrend. Bearish big picture. Could get back into the 20 dollars.

They bought Newfoundland Capital. It is a radio operator now. Debt is high but they keep increasing their dividend. People see them as background music in a retail environment. It is an okay stock and he would like it a lot better with a lot less debt.

A lawsuit with Apple resulted in $85.3 million settlement in their favour, but it is not all settled yet -- it could take years. All three of their divisions are earning well, but earnings are lumpy. Earnings come out February 27. They are searching for a new CEO. They have $70 million in the bank,…

Provides a service very similar to Alphabet (GOOGL-Q), which is provided for free. When your competitor is providing your services free, it is tough to be competitive.

(A Top Pick May 29/18, Down 40%) They make electronic products for other manufacturers, like Cisco. There has been a lot of new product spending delays in the space and this is hurting them. The valuation is great and the company continues to buy back their own shares.

It has come back a long way after they had a satellite explode. He is amazed it is doing as well with the debt load it carries. It is too expensive for him today.

Just announced a discovery in Columbia. Flow tested over 2000 barrels per day. This well could produce up to 5000 when brought into production. A very well distributed stock so it might not jump too fast. Company could get taken out.

He's long owned this. They run diagnostic imaging centres in the U.S. They charge half what hospitals do, which is attracting businesses. AKU has one big competitor in the U.S. that is twice the size of AKU. He believes the competitor will one day buy AKU. He'll wait 18 months for this take-out to happen.

(A Top Pick Dec 20/18, Down 40%) It had a good turn in January. Beaten down stocks can have a nice bounce in January.

Extendicare has a better chart than Chartwell. It has a head-and-shoulder chart movement. If you take into account the general market sell-off, investors need to be forgiving.

They hit a financing crisis and needed cash. So, they issued 20 billion share at 1.5 cents per share. A massive dilution that destroyed the shareholder base. Avoid.

Diversified business. Trust structure, so debt is higher than normal. Good at acquiring. Payout ratio is 60-70%. Dividend growth will be more moderate next couple of years. Yield is 5%.

Decent growth rate, good balance sheet. Even cheaper now. Markets will distort everything to the upside or downside. The script is to sell things that have really swelled, and put it into these lows. Now a ridiculously low valuation. Hold it, and add to it if you can. You want to own a name like…

It's failed to execute, though it has stopped falling. Hasn't created a meaningful rally.

It formed a nice base. It has a strong yield. It is coming out the last few days. We are getting close to a break out.

He bought it as a value play with sum of the parts worth more than it was trading at. They are trying to sell some of the parts. Thinks they will sell all the parts and distribute the cash. $4-$5 breakup value. It is taking longer than he thought to break it up.