This week’s new 52-week lows… (Dec 12-18)

This has done an incredible job of production and getting their costs down. We have a real use of natural gas for electricity air conditioning generation across North America, so gas prices are up. This is not the day that you want to buy gas stocks.

LNG Canada is coming on in 2023 – a long time to protect the balance sheet. He does not like the level of debt as it handcuffs any financial gains. He would not own this.

(A Top Pick April 6/15. Down 32.4%.) Natural gas producer in the Montney. Very well-run. Likes the story longer-term. This could be a $3-$4 stock again, but the problem is low natural gas prices. They are managing themselves frugally for these tough times. A name that you want to buy on weakness. If they got…

HSE will move with the oil price. You can buy it here and trade it when oil spikes. HSE walked away from the Meg Energy deal, which surprised many. Maybe it will happen later.

(A Top Pick Sept 10/10. Up 53.37%.)

Great driller and a low-cost producer of natural gas. However, the problem is the price of natural gas and how to get it out of Alberta and into a market that will pay more for it. That is a problem with a lot of natural gas stocks these days. Dividend yield of 8.96%, a warning…

This was heavily weighted towards natural gas. Management has been doing a great job of divesting non-core assets. Thinks there debt to cash flow is still around 6 or 7 times making them more sensitive to a decrease in the price of natural gas. Thinks there will be a wave of selling in some of…

2nd horizontal well results were disappointing with a 750 MCF a day versus the 1st well of 5 million. Somewhat cautious on the economic viability of this play. Could be quite a bit more headwinds.

An internationally diversified company with operations in Europe. Pays a high 14% dividend. Well-managed. Likes it very much. Higher risk/reward. We need a better global energy environment that would certainly help VET.

In the drilling business with one of the better management teams and a pretty new drill fleet. If you are going to own any drillers in the Canadian space, this is one of the top 3 that you want to own. However, with the drop in oil and gas prices, it is difficult for them…

(A Top Pick Nov. 9/17, Up 14%) It is also a Top Pick today.

The debt is 21%, but down from last December. He would recommend buying it on weakness. They have the gas for LNG approved projects in Canada. We could see takeovers in the next two to three years.

A heavy oil producer that has a lot of leverage on the balance sheet. It trades a relative cheap multiple, but he does not like the exposure to heavy oil. It is a speculative name in his mind that lacks the growth parameters they look for.

Trades at a higher valuation than Horizon North Logistics (HNL-T), but tends to be less volatile. The one major difference between these 2 companies is that Horizon North produces some of their accommodations, while this company doesn’t. Also, this company has exposure to Australia while Horizon North is limited to North America. Both are very…

It is a natural gas producer. He likes the setup for Canadian gas stocks. He bought in the fall. We are starting to get a cold winter. It set a record in Toronto last night. KEL-T was highlighted to him this week as one that gets a pretty good price for its gas and he…

It has been a while since he held it. He prefers owning the senior producers, when it comes to heavy oil. Their projects have not been well capitalized and they have taken time to get the Duvernay assets incorporated from the Raging River acquisition. Nothing wrong with it and they are paying down debt. There…

There are 3 pressure pumpers in Canada and are involved in the hydraulic fracturing of reservoirs as part of the completion process after the well has been drilled. This company has struggled with the debt and has been selling their US business. At this point in the cycle, he wouldn’t be too constructive on this…

They right-sized the dividend, maybe a little too early as the heavy differentials have tightened recently. It is trading at a slight discount to a Torc (TOG-T). He would sell it to take a tax loss and take on TOG-T to get a good yield and higher quality management team.

Hoping to be acquired. Feels the assets are worth a lot more than where the stock is trading. Can't see who would want all of the company's assets. If it was sold in 2 or 3 different pieces, they could probably get more value.

This was criticized for having 2 great assets. Sold one of them because no one believed they had the capital to develop both. They paid down all their debt and are now sitting with a great play at Simonette. This has multizone opportunity and they have infrastructure in place. They have gas gathering systems, processing…

He really likes it. They shut in some of their heavy oil in Q4. They have not reported yet. On Jan 9 they said they were working on cost recovery and liquids rich were going up. His target is a double or triple over twelve months.

This is so cheap and beat up, and it pays a dividend. The risk is up, not down.

Chart shows this has taken quite a dip in the last while. Changes in management because of production mishaps. Need to look at these from both a production standpoint and a commodity standpoint. Have a constrained balance sheet and not a lot of room to raise CapX for growth. More linked to oil than to…

A great energy company. Good managers with most of their oil in the Bakken, good. He owns enough oil elsewhere.

An oilfield services company. Longer-term, he likes this. They are the Western Canadian leader in the coil tubing service business. Long-term, there is a good opportunity in this space. In the short term, he would be a little bit cautious on the entire services space. Profitability is pretty muted.

Chart shows this consolidated at around $1.10 this spring. Support was broken in early June and it dropped down to below $1. Then it rose again to the support level at around $1.10. The story doesn’t look so great. He wouldn’t want to be in the stock.

(A Top Pick Jan 10/18, Down 31%) These should be safer than the producers. But as soon as a producer turns off the tap, the royalty does not have to be paid. This is really good value here. This is a play on oil returning to better times.

Didn’t raise capital in the process of going public. Very cost focused company. $17-19 range. 15% per share growth predicted. On his watch list.

The 3-year chart shows a low that is under $4. Currently this is above that low so it is probably okay. If there is a bounce, you might want to reduce in the bounce, because he thinks there is more to come. On a relative basis, this is one of the better ones.

This is a smaller company. A Cardium player in Western Canada. They have a good team. It is currently doing 3600 BOE’s a day and will be north of 4000-4200 by the end of the year. His 12-month target is $3.60. BV is $3. How many times do you buy a good growing company with…

(Market Call Minute.)

(A Top Pick June 8, 2017. Down 13%). Activist investors have gained seats on the board and are having a significant influence on management decisions. He thinks it is likely that the company will sell itself by the Fall, at a significant premium, therefore it looks like a promising short-term play. If that doesn’t happen,…

All the drillers have under performed. This is probably a good entry point -- around 5 year lows. He does not love the sector, but the risk reward is enticing. He owns PD-T right now instead. He would recommend taking money off the table if the stock price strengthens due to the volatility of the…

They executed the plan flawlessly. The declining gas price challenges them. Thinks it is pretty neat. Prefers TOU because it is a bigger company. If you are patient with PNE-X in a low gas market it seems they have a strategy for taking advantage of the low gas price.

Still very early stage. A long lead cycle. They are trying to get over the hump. They are de-risking assets. They are trying to maintain a nice clean balance sheet. They have easy access to capital so the market is willing to finance the project. There are companies further along the process, though.

Coming out of Arc Financial (private equity). Clean balance sheet. Trading at 1.9 times next year EBITDA. Historical average in Canada of a pumper is 7. Liquidity vacuum in the stock market is creating this opportunity. (Analysts’ price target is $18.20)

(A Top Pick Oct 24/18, Down 4%) He'd still buy it today. Not as much torque as in other oil names, but SU is widely held and pays a safe 4% yield. It's the top energy company in Canada, both upstream and downstream. Their refining profits will improve going forward.

(A Top Pick Feb 09/18, Down 57%) He sold them out at $3.50 back in April or May last year. Oil was at $60 and cash flow was growing. He liked this pressure pumper then. But now natural gas prices have gone to zero and condensate discounts have expanded. The whole service sector was decimated.

He thinks there is an opportunity with this one as the light oil differentials will compress again soon. The company sells into the Cromer market, where differentials are much tighter. This translates to high-quality valuations at a good discount. He expects steady eddy growth.

Too big to be taken over, except by a major, and it's quite independent, so that's a very low chance. Pure gas play, well run, profitable, has growth. Chart is pretty good for an energy stock. But valuations are still extremely low. It's in upper 5% of names, but whole group is out of favour.…

(Top Pick Dec 20/16, Up 101%) Their net backs are about the largest in the industry. They have beaten guidance and all the analysts have moved their numbers up. They are the fastest growing small cap company. If we get a lift in oil prices it will go up even higher.

It's been stuck at these levels for a long time, but likes recent volumes. No problem buying this one.

Play on the US housing recovery as well as timber, as they ship to US and Asia. Management bought 3 sawmills in 2006 which have been losing money. Have recapitalized a couple of the mills and are looking for better utilization. With better timber prices, she is expecting it to turn around and will probably…

Despite a strong US housing market, overseas is not doing that well. There are a lot of people that have been caught holding the stock, and will start selling above $20 as soon as the price recovers. The stock is under pressure.

Has an old mine outside of Los Angeles that was run in the 1930s. Closed down during the Second World War and they are doing open pit mining in the area. Has some issues, but at these gold prices, it will probably start to work again. Under followed. Highly speculative.

Operated by the Lundine family. This has been a truly outstanding Canadian success story. It mines and markets some of the highest quality diamonds globally. Earnings on a quarterly basis are lumpy, but over the course of a year they earn and distribute a lot of money. Return on cost employed in this mine is…

Yukon. Million oz discovered. Large potential to expand.

Management is first-class. The stock may be fully priced given where they are in the assets that they acquired. However, if you go back in time with this management, you don’t do poorly investing with them.

Mainly in Alaska and Arizona. Stock is generally not known. Project generation. Relationships and projects with several other companies. It spreads the risk.

This is the unknown royalty company. They bought the royalty package from Sherrit, that was the old CP royalty package. He knows those assets extremely well. Feels this is the best collection of brainpower, cash and royalty cash flow relative to market cap available on the planet.

Picked up a large land package in Ontario and Québec. Conceptually picked up on trend large deposits of Detour (DGC-T) and looking to replicate the same success.

A fantastic story. Have about 5 billion pounds of copper and gold. Cash costs in this environment should be about negative. Sees upside in this one.

They are active in several concessions in Mongolia. Any one of their projects could be a major mine. Should do well over the long term.

A lot of people want to play the housing market in the US and their recovery, which hasn’t really recovered the way people thought it would. Last year there were 900,000 new homes sold, and somewhere between 1 and 1.5 million new homes is a reasonable expectation. This company sells all the stuff that goes…

Compared to Canfor (CFP-T) and West Fraser (WFT-T), this has the least exposure to the softwood lumber issue. Only 15%-20% of their product is shipped across the US border. 60% of their production is already in the US. The housing market in the US is growing, but is still growing quite slowly because of the…

A few days ago they acquired a historic mine and believe that there is more ore in the mine. It transforms the company and gives them a project they can sink their teeth into and gives them a new direction.

This has been on his watch list for years but he is not accumulating it. Years ago, he went to the AGM, he didn’t have confidence in the management. They have taken care of the debt load that he was concerned about but that is costing them revenues. The company is primed to commodities, so…

Just announced a 70% increase in their mineral reserves. 7.7 million ounces of gold and 3.6 billion of copper. Extended the Prosperity mine life from 20 years to 33 years. It will be the largest gold/copper reserve project in Canada. Expect they will get a partner.

Fine to hold for the dividend, though there are better REITs. Experienced management that will maintain the yield. They are improving their portfolio. You're fine to own this.

Has held in remarkably well given the manufacturing slowdown in Canada. One of his largest holdings in one of his funds. One of the 2 cheapest stocks in the universe that he covers. A really strong ROE at 23%. Trading at 4.5X Price to Free Cash Flow, so is really cheap. Dividend yield of 6.5%.…

Rotation from small-cap banks into large ones? He doesn't see a correlation. BMO itself was the highest flyer in 2018 until it got hit hard in Q4, and now it's back in the middle of the big 5 Canadian banks. He's been gradually selling off BMO (he owns 4 of the 5 banks). BMO is…

Great company. They have been the quality act in the funds business. He has a soft spot for them as they were the very first client when he started in business in 1993. ETFs are putting them under pressure. Fees are coming down. It is not a growth business anymore. Their writing is a little…

(A Top Pick March 20/13. Down 58%.)

GWO-T vs. MFC-T. MFC-T has the advantage of being a very diversified company, globally. They have done well from that diversification. He tends to prefer it to GWO-T, although he might use its weakness to buy.

Tied to the railroad industry, mid-west US. They made some non-rail acquisitions. They had a mini-stumble. This is not a bad entry point below $10.

They are doing a good job. It has broken above its 50 day moving average. The trend is in a non-aggressive down trend. It is near the top of its channel.

They recently bought back 5-8% of shares outstanding. It's a good income stock at a 5.9% dividend. PWF's performance depends on its subsidiaries, though it trades at an historially wide 19% discount to those subs. Maybe the subs have better growth. It's a safe defensive stock.

This is secondary (suburban) office. There is going to be a really interesting play in suburban office at some point. You’ll have to watch for GDP numbers for small business growth in Canada. There is quite a large spread in what people are willing to pay, for class A buildings versus suburban office. These guys…

If you can't buy the coin directly this is a very interesting leveraged play. It is one of the biggest bit coin miners out there. Two years from now the net asset value of the company could double. (Analysts’ target: $7.85).

They issued a lot of shares to get the deal done. It is a great business. The press release today said the loan book is growing. This is incredibly fast. They will have to raise more debt financing soon. You have an overhang from PHM-X with the same management. They just need a few quarters…

This buys small grocery anchored centres. It is so small that it is hard to get some love. If you own it, it is going to move around and will be very volatile. You are going to lose and gain. The main part of your return is going to be your yield, currently over 11%,…

Market Call Minute. There is not a lot of earnings momentum on this, and they have to do a lot internally to get their business model going.

Thinks there is a lot of disarray in the company right now. Cut their dividends earlier in the year.

CIBC vs CN Rail for income? He would be getting out of all the Canadian rails at this point. The banks are also getting hurt. Negative interest rate curves are a warning that something ugly is going to happen. The GDP will fall and interest rates will begin to rise. He would therefore buy into…

Should one buy Dream, which pays no dividend and has dropped significantly in value or just buy its managed REITs and be happy with the 8% distribution? Really depends on your needs. If you need theincome or happy with the capital gains. This is the asset manager that manages the REITs. It also has a…

Their core P&C insurance business has improved in recent years. They now have a lot of cash. You're betting on Prem Watsa's investing acumen who will put that capital to work. Trading close to book value for the first time in six years. (Analysts’ price target is $748.46)

All asset management companies have been hurt in the last year, partly because the markets haven’t done very much, and they get their fees on how their assets do. Also, there are new regulations coming into the mutual fund business that is putting pressure on fees, which are way too high. A well-run company. Owns…

A name where there was a lot of growth priced in on the IPO. The company is still growing, but not profitably yet. However, it is so oversold and we are starting to see the bounce. That is probably the end of tax loss selling and you could see a nice trade in it here.

He normally has iShares DEX Short-Term Bond (XSB-T), but is looking for something that will give him a little bit of an edge. This is about 60% Canadian Corp., about 25% US, as well as some US high-yield. The distribution yield and their yield to maturity are close, which is unusual. They are also doing…

An equal weight of US banks and includes some regional banks along with some of the big banks. He would prefer to own the larger market cap weighted ETF’s, such as XLF-N.

Has been beaten up and you are getting double gearing to basket of producers. You are not taking single company risks.

A good ETF. You're swapping a lot of income for growth. If you want that, then fine.

HBP S&P 500 Bull (HSU-T) or BMO Equal Weight US Banks Hedged To CDN$ (ZUB-T)? These are 2 completely different things. A lot of people are negative on Bull+ and Bear+ ETFs but he thinks there is a place for these things but he doesn’t think it is here. Thinks it is going to be…

Given that the energy space is volatile, but not overly sold, the covered call strategies have looked pretty attractive over the last couple of years. Generally speaking, he is not an energy fan or investor. However, when his arm gets twisted by a TSX that roars forward, and he is not playing that game, he…

Doesn’t think this is worth buying, as he doesn’t expect the price of oil is going to change much from its $50 range. Whenever the price gets high, the Americans turn on the taps and the price goes back down again.

MSCI EAFE (CAD-Hedged) ETF. International. Cap weighted. Broadly diversified. It tracks the MSCI EAFE index, so it is a whole wide variety of 1st world economy stocks.

If you are looking for a growth story in Canada, not including energy, you'll have to look at midcaps. Avoids volatility.

(A Top Pick Sept 1/11. Up 11.2%.)

(A Top Pick March 23/11. Down 9.45%.) This one has done better than other oil products. Fairly expensive oil, combined with low interest rates is an environment for takeovers.

He likes US banks. He prefers ZBK-T, because it's the unhedged version and he expects the Canadian dollar to soften up this year. But it's a little riskier. Otherwise, buy the safer, hedged ZUB.

Is this a buy over the next 1-2 years? He thinks the buy in by Aurora was interesting. Their existing business is going through transformation and they are working at trying to improve on or sell assets – especially in Alberta. He is on the fringe of wanting to own it.

It has done well and if the position is too large, trim it back. It has done a phenomenal job because they are one of the few that does not compete with AMZN-Q. The issue they are facing is that it is getting tougher to find more locations to open new stores. They made an…

Ski-doos. Has a fairly mediocre track record at the moment. In hugely better shape than Bombardier (BBD.B-T).

He has owned it in the past. He was hoping when the Canada-US-Mexico auto parts tariff issues worked out they would benefit. However, earnings growth continues to be challenged at the moment. Better opportunity elsewhere. Yield 1%

The industry has been hammered in the last couple of years. It is hard to analyze. The results aren’t that transparent. It is hard to know how it is doing organically. He does not think the company was that well managed in the past. It is a wait and see approach.

It is his biggest position, one of the best managed companies in Canada. They are growing organically. They recently did a 3 for 1 stock split. It is not the value it was. He would hold it.

What normally happens with the smaller brewers is that they get taken out. He likes the company, but doesn’t follow it closely. A good story with good earnings growth.

He owned in the past. He got stopped out. Yield is 7%. 1700 screens and 165 theaters. They don't have control over the film slate but they do have control on the 70 million people that come every year and diversifying the offering and they are doing that with the rec rooms and so forth.…

They make bikes, baby furniture, baby equipment, car seats, etc. The family that is involved in it owns a significant stake. He sees better days ahead. It is trading at a reasonable valuation. Dividend yield of about 4%.

Music on your cable box. They put up a good quarter recently and raised their dividend. There is insider trading. It is going to become a street darling. It is somewhat illiquid. (Analysts’ target: $10.00).

They still generate a lot of cash flow from their patents. New management has a new strategy. They made acquisitions last year to diversify. They seem to be implementing a software roll up strategy. Hang on if you own it, otherwise wait a few quarters to see exactly what the strategy will be.

Provides a service very similar to Alphabet (GOOGL-Q), which is provided for free. When your competitor is providing your services free, it is tough to be competitive.

$300 million in cash and less than 9 times earnings. They just can’t get any love. It had a bit better execution in terms of earnings and they could get recognized. They buy back stocks. Leverage on their operations is quite high and it has not performed yet. (Analysts’ target: $14.87).

It's been a tough performer the past year, compounded in the last month. They had a satellite crash and lost on those contracted revenues--to add to their woes. They carry a lot of debt. It'll be a long road for them. They face competitors, too.

Gas play in Guatemala and Colombia. Have a lot of land blocks near where Petrominerales (PMG-T) hit. Just drilled a well with a fairly large target in Guatemala and found oil at a much higher area than expected. Cased the well and we'll hear more next week. Highly speculative.

Akumin on the TSX will migrate to NASDAQ which will be a big catalyst. It trades in U.S. dollars. They're a medical imaging company, a space ripe for consolidation. AKU is also in artificial intelligence. (Analysts' price target: $6.00)

Has some zip to it. Long term it should do well.

It's been beaten up, but the technicals look really good. It's broken a downtrend. Everything is lined up from a fundamental and technical perspective. If it breaks $8, then it should have no resistence to reach $10. Nice dividend above 6%. (Analysts' price target: $8.83)

They are going to have a lot of catalysts between now and Q1 2018 on their drugs and some of their trials. He sold it higher up for technical reasons. He would hold onto it because of the catalysts.

He likes this name. They are modeling 20% EPS growth, 10% FCF growth. Pays a nice dividend easy for them to pay. Payout ratio of 60%. The only negative is that their balance sheet is a little too levered. The name doesn't get the respect it deserves. he think it is going higher.

Hold it for two years? It's a deeply cyclical stock that hasn't been doing well. He wouldn't hold it for two years, but rather buy it now as a trading opportunity.

It is one he does not own. He has looked at it in detail. On a PE and multiple basis it trades cheap and always has done. Over the long term you will be able to see them pay a few extra pennies with dividend increases. The multiple looks attractive but don't catch the falling…

Fixed price energy contracts door to door. It has done fairly well. The turn in terms of their clients is so high, though. He does not feel that comfortable with them. 8% yield and do people really believe it?

Well run company. Long term hold.