This week’s new 52-week lows… (Dec 12-18)

Another challenged Canadian energy company. Unless there's a change in management or strategy, he doesn't see this going anywhere.

They are more levered towards natural gas. It all comes down to being able to live with the volatility. Anything related to Montney natural gas is betting on LNG, which may not come quickly enough. He would stay away.

It is a liquids rich player with very high liquids content. The problem is that the market cap is below the radar, and the debt is high. It was a $4 plus stock when we had decent gas prices. They are looking to bring their debt down. He thinks the company will survive. They've been…

Hold for a year or so. We're in a secular bear market for commodities, but we're heading into year two of a four-year cycle. Year three is strong for energy (2021). So, HSE is poised to rise. He expects this to move above $12 to $16, and possibly higher in 2021. Resistance is $13-14, the…

Convertible bonds with a 5.75% coupon They own a great base of real estate. The debt issue is a small piece. The bond is well-covered. MTL.DV-T. You get a 6-year option on the stock within the bond, with a $14 convert price. If oil recovers, these bonds will convert into equity. Until then, collect then.…

The US / China truce as of last week eliminated the strong worries people had on the global economy. There has been a large unwind of value stocks for growth stocks. The best value in the world is Canadian energy stocks. PEY-T is a levered natural gas. He took the easy profits off it. If…

Pengrowth (PGF-T) and Perpetual (PMT-T)? Had some challenges with their balance sheet over the last couple of years with the collapse in oil prices. This one would be a little riskier. If you really see a big jump in commodity prices, this probably has a lot more upside than Pengrowth (PGF-T).

Quebec is moving forward. They are having fabulous wells. They have higher net backs because of the lack of need for transportation. On a little bit of weakness the stock is one to keep an eye on.

His entry point is right here. Sells to Europe. Dividend is sustainable, and has never been cut. Sales are hedged, and they get the higher Brent price. Target is $35. Yield is 13.08%. (Analysts’ price target is $25.07)

The company is very cheap in terms of price to book. Their book value was $4 at the end of June. However, they have a debt problem: $211 million of debt compared to an equity value of $369 million. He sees this as a takeover candidate especially now because he is seeing consolidation in the…

(A Top Pick Aug 13/18, Down 61%) They disenfranchised the Canadian shareholders. He sold out sooner before the de listing, so did not do as badly, nor did his subscribers. He disagrees with their move.

Income safe? Both ARX (8% yield and 100% payout ratio) and IPL (yield of 7.7% payout ratio of 110%). He thinks both should be fine to continue with the dividend. If he had to pick, he would prefer ARX as a producer and with lower debt.

It is a heavy oil play and needs a lot of capital. They have not created any shareholder value since going public. MEG-T is a preference.

They build modular spaces and have been hit by the fall in the oil and gas sector. They no longer pay a dividend. He thinks revenues are growing by over 11% annually and they are expanding into the US -- over 65% of sales now. Management is very straightforward. They are helping provide housing in…

Their spending budget exceeds cash flow. He likes the management team. There is the possibility of a reserve write down. It is probably interesting at this level. But he would let it settle out for a while and not get involved.

A leveraged play on crude oil prices. She owns no energy stocks, because she wants to see clarity on takeaway capacity from Alberta. BTE will follow the price of oil. CNQ and Suncor are the better oil names.

He won't buy any service stocks today. It just isn't profitable; the market isn't rewarding drilling. Stop drilling and buy stocks, is his message to the oil industry. He'd rather buy Trican who are buying back stock.

There are a couple of knocks in terms of leverage. They have more older well bores. Management don't own enough stock.

They have cut back and preserved capital. They do not have a debt issue. They are a gas play. If gas prices stay strong, they should do well. She anticipates their 4th quarter production being lower. She is not buying it today, but the future looks good.

They did a flow through share. The company is involved in oil and Nat. gas. He has a $1.20 target on it. If they can generate more cash flow they can get the debt down. He likes it. He may add on weakness.

A small to mid-cap energy producer. It trades at 1/10 of book value. However, they are subject to reserve valuations. The problem is their debt. The market is concerned about bankruptcy risk at these valuations. ROE is still low.

Weakness in share price recently is related to their moving HQ into the US. Their strategy for the move is to trigger share buying in the US as they become part of a larger market index, he thinks. There is no guarantee this will happen in the US, so this is a pretty risky strategy.…

He stayed away because they went to the states to make acquisitions. He did not know why the Americans would not already take these assets. He stays away from it.

A large holding for him and he is concerned about upcoming earnings. He sees it trading at 8-12% free cash flow next year based on his oil price outlook. They are doing share buybacks. They have 10 years of inventory in the US Bakken and you are only paying about half of historical valuation. He…

They paid down the debt recently and are in very good shape. They are doing less CAP-X this year. His target is $1.20 so there is lots of upside. It will be a Q4 opportunity.

NexGen vs. Fission He owns both Fission and NexGen. They're far from infrastructure in the Athabasca Basin and would be challenged if it wasn't for their deposits being large and of quality (and next to each other). They could get built as a pair. The Fission deposit is borderline-tier one deposit, whole Nexgen's is. The…

He can't figure out why these types of royalty companies are going out of favour. This type of environment is a good for royalty companies. The dividend is 8.41%. This is an oil and gas name that is safe to own this year. He thinks they will increase the dividend this year. (Analysts’ price target…

They have done some good acquisitions and they have heavy oil exposure, but the liquidity is just too slight.

A mico-cap that had some major issues. He would not look at this at all.

(A Top Pick Oct 09/18, Down 55%) He has a one year target of $1.60. Debt is not a problem. He thinks this is a cheap stock. This is a buy today on weakness.

It is quite a small company. It is hugely volatile. There a lot of problems over the years with the pricing of data coming from India regarding a 10% stake in another company. They have too much debt. The price of the gas they sell has been negotiated. A tough name to predict.

(A Top Pick Oct 22/18, Down 88%) He sold at $3.22, taking a big loss. They have a lot of worries. They are looking to sell the company. They might just liquidate the company, but clean up could be very expensive. He does not like stock consolidations and used that as a trigger to get…

The chart is pretty ugly right now and he does not see the bear trend ending yet. He wants to see a base form first.

In tough shape. They made the wrong bet on natural gas. Sell it and buy elsewhere. But it will pay off over five years.

Has nat gas exposure--and he's bearish on all nat gas stocks. Market cap is way too low for investors to really care for in this sector.

70% fracking and then they have coil tubing. They are pretty cheap. They are doing reasonably well. It is really, really cheap. The two biggest shareholders are funds so liquidity is an issue Buy on weakness; he would have a target of $5.

Oil is a difficult space, but SU is building a base around $40. Strategy: buy the strongest stock in a struggling sector, which is SU. SU has the balance sheet to pick up cheap assets.

Energy has been bad but energy services has been really bad. He would look to add above $120.

It is a mid cap. Their debt to cash flow is one times, which is very low.

Management has big inside ownership. They monetized some of their infrastructure. It gives them liquidity to buy assets in other Nat gas names that remain very depressed. It is catalyst rich so there should be a robust pipeline of deals. (Analysts’ price target is $20.43)

It has followed the trend that many small caps have followed. Multiples have compressed. It is trading at 2.5 times cash flow next year. The management has an antiquated mindset that they will grow as much as they can.

It's been stuck at these levels for a long time, but likes recent volumes. No problem buying this one.

Forestry space He owns no names. The stocks are okay but face trade disputes and an economic slowdown that will hit housing stocks. The stocks have been beaten up.

Jim Pattison's bid to go private has ended. Buy on weakness; offers solid, long-term value. Pattison sees value. But be patient with this one. With the rejection, expect overreaction to the downside. Buy around $11-12.

Has an old mine outside of Los Angeles that was run in the 1930s. Closed down during the Second World War and they are doing open pit mining in the area. Has some issues, but at these gold prices, it will probably start to work again. Under followed. Highly speculative.

The company has suspended its dividend. They operate diamond mines in South Africa. They are looking into underground, from open pit. The cost is more expensive than thought. The price of diamonds has been reduced, though retail prices won’t change.

Agnico-Eagle (AEM-T) came in a while ago and made a 9.9% stake in this company. The stock went up, but it really hasn’t done much since then. Then Barrick (ABX-T) came in and said they really liked the deposit and wanted to do a joint venture. This is a much better approach that is better…

Likes the managers, but concerned with the topography. A decent-sized gold project. A good speculation.

(Top Pick Mar 8/11, Down 65.85%)

An excellently managed royalty with diversified metals -- mostly base metals, coal and potash along with gold. It is down about 16% since August as it was impacted by lower copper prices and some reductions in production. They carry about $95 million in debt, costing about $2 million per quarter. There may be some short…

A very small gold explorer. Probably the best claim to fame is that its project is located near the Detour Gold (DGC-T) project near the west detour part of that project. A very prospective camp. Still early stage. He likes the management team.

Copper pricing seems to be Firming here. Commodities are starting to come off from a bottom here. It is 9 years into a bull market and into a recovery. If you are going to play it, this is probably a not bad place to be. Copper looks interesting here.

This now has a project in Mongolia which has epithermal veins, which he loves. When you do find them and they carry great grades, it can grow really fast. This has a 50 g/meter width quite prominent with something like 16% which gets him excited. Still very early stage.

It has returned to previous support from November. He would look at the $9 range. If it breaks below that they we have a problem, otherwise it will base at this level before going up to $16.

Forestry has been a declining business his entire career. They are very cyclical so you can make a lot of money on recovery. He thinks the US housing market is picking up and so there will be increased demand for lumber. (Analysts’ price target is $18.14)

“Jumps and Steps” – quite common in junior companies. Each jump is a news item. As it gets closer to production, it will keep on doing this. Pullbacks are due to profit taking. Must stay above the $0.30 level, otherwise it may be bad news.

Historically owned bonds. If the trend for nickel continues, it will do well.

This still has legs. There’s been a break out in the 10-year decline we have seen in base metal prices, which should be positive for all the base metal companies, particularly the Canadian ones which could have by-products of zinc, lead or other things that can bring a fair dollar.

Strong, experienced managers, but investors don't like the wide diversity of real estate assets this contains. Also, they have a lot of exposure to Alberta that they are selling down. They have decent U.S. exposure. Artis is okay. But managers are too responsive to activists.

This is a tough business to be in as construction and design are low margin businesses. The last couple of quarters showed some operational hiccups. He needs to see these issues turn around before investing. He thinks there are other ways to play the infrastructure wave, such as Brookfield or SNC Lavalin.

BNS vs. BMO He prefers BNS, though their last report disappointed. Their credit did hold up well; capital positions are strong. BMO just reported this morning. BNS pays a slightly higher yield. PB is identical. BNS will enjoy a better upside given its Latin American operations, whereas BMO is focussed on North America. Both are…

A big Canadian mutual fund company. A go-go stock for many years and a fast-grower, but is now under pressure like the sector. Still produces a lot of fresh cash flow. It's in trading range of $18-23. Pays a nice dividend.

It broke a down trend. It has pretty weak upside. The recent level of highs has not been taken out. It is struggling.

Likes it a lot and recommended it a few weeks ago as yields have been bottoming and flattening out. Yields will rise long-term, he predict, which will benefit lifecos like this. GWO broke its downtrend at end-2018, rose, hit a second bottom (a double-bottom) and is now accelerating higher.

It is operating in a very difficult space and he is short in that space. These leases reset every night. Revenue per available room at best is going be flat over the next year. They have too much debt and don’t cover their distribution.

Will do well if interest rates go up. A lifeco that offers financial services. Scores in the top 25% of valuation with decent price momentum and volatility. (Analysts’ price target is $60.89)

$30-36 is the range to play within it. A trading stock. Financials, like this, are now toppy. PWF is stuck in this range.

Very competent managers, but he doesn't like this REIT because they are externally managed--hit with external management fees. They manage public and private fees; he prefers internally managed REITs.

(A Top Pick May 14/18, Down 21%) It had a tough go since he was on. He continues to believe it is one of the best plays to get exposure to bit coin. It is a well run company.

(A Top Pick Feb 24/16. Down 43.33%.) This was a big disappointment. They changed their focus on their business plan. He got stopped out. They were basically doing loans to doctors, but have now changed and is doing software service. The market didn’t like that.

Small and obscure and in commercial real estate that he doesn't like. This will suffer if there's a downturn. This is also small-cap; better to buy a larger-cap REIT.

Is there any growth in the investment business? AGF's balance sheet is too big for what they earn. Potential write-offs must happen to bring that down. Asset management businesses are being killed. $10.84 is his target price--lots of upside and they can cover their dividend.

A former top pick. It's had a nice run this year. It's a real estate service company transforming into a tech, the Bloomberg of real estate, that's growing by double-digits. A good one to hold for the long run. Good managers.

Banks on the whole are going sideways. It's OK. Pretty good dividend. Stuck in a range, $100 on the low side and $120 on the high end. Good for the dividend, but not for growth. Yield is 5.3%.

Dream Global REIT Dream Global REIT was sold in September to Blackstone. A fee was paid to Dream Unlimited in this sale, so the stock spiked. This cash gives DRM the chance to buyback more stock. You can still make money here, though it's moved up.

Insurance and hedge businesses lead to some volatility in earnings. The chart doesn't show much, neutral, and doesn't indicate much opportunity. Can't see it going up or down. It's stuck in a range.

Buy BAM instead? Nice up-channel, but faces resistance. Neutral for him. Yes, sell IGM and buy BAM.

This is a way to play the millennial fintech market with a dash of crypto. The stock made its IPO at 10, then pulled back sharply. They have a platform that allows millennials (or anyone else) to get loans, mortgages, and other financial products -- now including a crypto layer. There are 10 million millennials…

(A Top Pick Feb 16/16. Up 6.28%.) This has some creative stuff and he had been looking for bond portfolios that are actively managed and a little bit outside the normal ETF’s. He is still buying some of this.

Good time to buy? U.S. Banks ETF. Very popular, very liquid and very good at what it does. A great way for Canadians investos to access U.S. banks quickly and easily. Since it last peak the U.S. banks have been declining on price due to falling rates in the U.S.. When rates are low the…

HPB Energy Bull+ ETF. Immediate leverage to oil price moves. If you have a very good near-term bet that you want to make on oil this would be the way to go but if you are looking for an investment in the oil patch that has a long-term investment implications, then you should go to…

A safe investment in the oil space is the ETF, HPF-T, so you're paid an 8% dividend to wait. It holds the world's 15 biggest oil companies.

HBP S&P 500 Bull (HSU-T) or BMO Equal Weight US Banks Hedged To CDN$ (ZUB-T)? These are 2 completely different things. A lot of people are negative on Bull+ and Bear+ ETFs but he thinks there is a place for these things but he doesn’t think it is here. Thinks it is going to be…

This is a call on oil. He is not going to want to buy a lot of oil. This is the 15 largest companies and they write covered calls. You will collect much higher premiums for the calls. But he would be cautious of this one.

Energy is a big part of the Canadian story. The world is serious about climate change. We need balance in the transition away from fossil fuels and limiting pipeline capacity is one of the most idiotic way of doing this.

Europe, Australia, and Far East so has been affected by Brexit. A good ETF but hasn't performed well. Could buy ZWE, which is more European based. Would like to see more U.S. exposure.

(A Top Pick August 8/17, Up 8%) This holds what’s left over from the XIU 60. Wanted to get into some smaller stuff to get better diversification, and focus on this rather than the broader-based indices.

Not an area he would pay attention to though it is interesting. In good economic times, small caps are the place to be. In this cycle, the big caps and tech has been carrying the ball. The ETF hasn’t gone anywhere. Maybe small-caps aren’t doing well this cycle. We are also late in the cycle…

He would recommend taking a tax loss on this and buying into his energy fund. His fund has fewer names and a larger average market cap. The ETF is passive -- he prefers active management.

Time to cut losses? He has had a lot of questions on this one. Investors tend to run to banks when interest rates are thought to be rising as bank profitability tends to rise when rate spreads expands. US banks did not do well last year for various reasons. With the investment cycle going on…

The dividend was very high, almost too high. The dividend was illuminated and the stock price took a hit. They are active in the alcohol space and marijuana. Have been raising money, and could be a potential acquisition for Aurora.

(A Top Pick Jan 21/19, Up 29%) He trimmed them in the mid-to high $50s about a year or so ago and then added them back. They exercised their option to take a 50.1 stake in a chain in South America. They do everything very carefully. He thinks it could be a really nice growth…

He likes the price momentum and the fact they bought back a large number of shares. With strong employment and wage growth, they will do well in the consumer discretionary spending space. There are few competitors in the space. Yield 0.67% (Analysts’ price target is $63.04)

They have been diversifying their business away from solely auto parts. They have been challenged by a stressed business for auto parts, particularly in Germany. A lot of these issues have been factored in. Trades at 6 times earnings and 8 times cash flow. One knock against them was the level of debt incurred to…

It is unbelievable where this stock is trading at. Acquisitions this year are worth less than half what they paid for them. It was trading at less than half what it was worth. They are trading below the amount of cash they have. It shocks him how far it continues to go down.

(A Top Pick Nov 18/18, Down 8%) They made acquisitions and markets got ahead of themselves. Now things have settled down. It is a nice stable company and the dividends should increase over time. Stay with it.

(A Top Pick Jun 18/18, Up 1%) Still likes it. It's well-run. They're growing their brands and they have a big opportunity to get into cannabis beverages which will be legal in Canada in October 2019. BRB is well-positioned for this and this market could be very large.

Being purchased? Why its trading over the $34 offer price is possibly due to short covering. There is a long period before the deal closes and Cineplex still has a chance of finding a higher bid. He would continue to hold it to tender and not sell.

In general terms still on a downtrend. Bearish big picture. Could get back into the 20 dollars.

They bought Newfoundland Capital. It is a radio operator now. Debt is high but they keep increasing their dividend. People see them as background music in a retail environment. It is an okay stock and he would like it a lot better with a lot less debt.

They are still sitting on a lot of cash. They are still in a patent litigation. It has not done a whole lot and last year it finally went up. Legal fees were a big drag on this company and they have reduced this. It is not a bad name but it is not that…

Provides a service very similar to Alphabet (GOOGL-Q), which is provided for free. When your competitor is providing your services free, it is tough to be competitive.

(A Top Pick May 29/18, Down 40%) They make electronic products for other manufacturers, like Cisco. There has been a lot of new product spending delays in the space and this is hurting them. The valuation is great and the company continues to buy back their own shares.

Two years ago, he looked at Maxar. Ever since, they've made one mistake after another. Look elsewhere.

Just announced a discovery in Columbia. Flow tested over 2000 barrels per day. This well could produce up to 5000 when brought into production. A very well distributed stock so it might not jump too fast. Company could get taken out.

Investors don't recognize its value. It can grow inorganically in this environment. A solid business that operates medical MRI clinics, the number two player in the U.S. Payout rates have been very stable. Free cash flow will turn around this year. This should do well this year and boasts a lot of upside. Also, a…

(A Top Pick Dec 20/18, Down 40%) It had a good turn in January. Beaten down stocks can have a nice bounce in January.

A great demographic pick. He bought in at $7.01 in 2014 and bought in again at $6.62. He liked how they paid down debt and reduced operations in the US. He likes the dividend and thinks there is still good upside -- maybe another 50%. They have been growing organically and by takeover. He would…

They hit a financing crisis and needed cash. So, they issued 20 billion share at 1.5 cents per share. A massive dilution that destroyed the shareholder base. Avoid.

Strong upward chart in 2019 with a clear base around $36 will provide momentum.

A contrarian pick. If there's a recovery in manufacturing, you buy industrials like this. It's growing earnings 14% annually in the next few years mostly from cost-cutting. Trades at 12x earnings. Pays a safe 3.2% dividend, and they will buyback stock. This will grow despite a weak macro, even better in a strong macro. (Analysts’…

It's failed to execute, though it has stopped falling. Hasn't created a meaningful rally.

It formed a nice base. It has a strong yield. It is coming out the last few days. We are getting close to a break out.

He bought it as a value play with sum of the parts worth more than it was trading at. They are trying to sell some of the parts. Thinks they will sell all the parts and distribute the cash. $4-$5 breakup value. It is taking longer than he thought to break it up.