This week’s new 52-week lows… (Dec 12-18)

This has done an incredible job of production and getting their costs down. We have a real use of natural gas for electricity air conditioning generation across North America, so gas prices are up. This is not the day that you want to buy gas stocks.

LNG Canada is coming on in 2023 – a long time to protect the balance sheet. He does not like the level of debt as it handcuffs any financial gains. He would not own this.

(A Top Pick April 6/15. Down 32.4%.) Natural gas producer in the Montney. Very well-run. Likes the story longer-term. This could be a $3-$4 stock again, but the problem is low natural gas prices. They are managing themselves frugally for these tough times. A name that you want to buy on weakness. If they got…

Breaking News The unsolicited offer has been given an exemption by the ASC that avoids having to provide identical consideration to all securities holders. This means MEG will plan to waive its shareholder rights plan, but still plans to reject the offer the Husky. He feels this is an unusual decision by the ASC and…

Trucking and well completion services. Pre-eminent logistics player on oil sands. Expected them to make acquisitions by this time. Long-term, great company to own. 3.4% yield.

Great driller and a low-cost producer of natural gas. However, the problem is the price of natural gas and how to get it out of Alberta and into a market that will pay more for it. That is a problem with a lot of natural gas stocks these days. Dividend yield of 8.96%, a warning…

This was heavily weighted towards natural gas. Management has been doing a great job of divesting non-core assets. Thinks there debt to cash flow is still around 6 or 7 times making them more sensitive to a decrease in the price of natural gas. Thinks there will be a wave of selling in some of…

2nd horizontal well results were disappointing with a 750 MCF a day versus the 1st well of 5 million. Somewhat cautious on the economic viability of this play. Could be quite a bit more headwinds.

The dividend is likely safe. They have some exposure to European natural gas where prices have fallen. Investors are concerned about the CEO getting a 52% pay raise last year, but the stock underperformed the index--what's going on? When oil stocks rally again, this will likely underperform over Euro prices and using their balance sheet…

In the drilling business with one of the better management teams and a pretty new drill fleet. If you are going to own any drillers in the Canadian space, this is one of the top 3 that you want to own. However, with the drop in oil and gas prices, it is difficult for them…

(A Top Pick Nov. 9/17, Up 14%) It is also a Top Pick today.

Dividend is approaching 14%. Too good to be true? No. He used to own this. Trades at 0.6x book value, an all-time low. Dividend is safe. LNG will get built on the west coast, so be patient and get paid to wait.

They are the number two in Canada. Should be able to monetize some assets and should be debt free. The name is trading at just over 2 times EBITA. At $70 oil, he sees a 102% upside. At $80 oil, he sees an upside of 172%. (Analysts’ price target is $2.41)

A provider of temporary workplace accommodation, primarily in Western Canada, in the oil sands. Likes the name and likes the space. Thinks this space is going to be growing 18% over the next 5 years because of the projects they are involved in. (See Top Picks.)

BIR-T vs. CR-T. BIR-T has much larger production than CR-T. BIR-T is a large cap vs. CR-T being a small cap. He likes both companies and owns them. He does not have a preferred one.

Canadian oil stocks are finally seeing what the market wants from them: stop production growth, pay shareholders, buy back shares and pay down debt. Hopefully this translates into higher stock prices. We've seen a massive exodus of investment from this sector. Valuations are cheap enough. (Analysts’ price target is $3.59)

There are 3 pressure pumpers in Canada and are involved in the hydraulic fracturing of reservoirs as part of the completion process after the well has been drilled. This company has struggled with the debt and has been selling their US business. At this point in the cycle, he wouldn’t be too constructive on this…

Their dividend payout is not sustainable at current levels. But correction in differential and $60 crude will keep the payout sustainable which he thinks will happen.

Hoping to be acquired. Feels the assets are worth a lot more than where the stock is trading. Can't see who would want all of the company's assets. If it was sold in 2 or 3 different pieces, they could probably get more value.

This was criticized for having 2 great assets. Sold one of them because no one believed they had the capital to develop both. They paid down all their debt and are now sitting with a great play at Simonette. This has multizone opportunity and they have infrastructure in place. They have gas gathering systems, processing…

BIR-T vs. CR-T. BIR-T has much larger production than CR-T. BIR-T is a large cap vs. CR-T being a small cap. He likes both companies and owns them. He does not have a preferred one.

Foreign investors are fleeing the country and now this company is doing so because it is now very much an American company after recent acquisitions. He would recommend this company at these levels. It is trading at about 10 times earnings and a slight discount to book value. Any kind of good news in Canada…

Chart shows this has taken quite a dip in the last while. Changes in management because of production mishaps. Need to look at these from both a production standpoint and a commodity standpoint. Have a constrained balance sheet and not a lot of room to raise CapX for growth. More linked to oil than to…

(A Top Pick Aug 22/17, Up 18%) One of the few energy stocks this year with positive returns. He exited, because it's price momentum fell off this fall, though not as badly as its peers. It still scores well in valuation. Good assets. A good stock, but in a tough sector.

An oilfield services company. Longer-term, he likes this. They are the Western Canadian leader in the coil tubing service business. Long-term, there is a good opportunity in this space. In the short term, he would be a little bit cautious on the entire services space. Profitability is pretty muted.

Chart shows this consolidated at around $1.10 this spring. Support was broken in early June and it dropped down to below $1. Then it rose again to the support level at around $1.10. The story doesn’t look so great. He wouldn’t want to be in the stock.

A small short position for him. It is a hedge for him, also. It beat on a recent quarter, but the payout ratio is high and it is too expensive. It has poor price momentum.

Didn’t raise capital in the process of going public. Very cost focused company. $17-19 range. 15% per share growth predicted. On his watch list.

The 3-year chart shows a low that is under $4. Currently this is above that low so it is probably okay. If there is a bounce, you might want to reduce in the bounce, because he thinks there is more to come. On a relative basis, this is one of the better ones.

This is a smaller company. A Cardium player in Western Canada. They have a good team. It is currently doing 3600 BOE’s a day and will be north of 4000-4200 by the end of the year. His 12-month target is $3.60. BV is $3. How many times do you buy a good growing company with…

(Market Call Minute.)

They have gone through a lot of stress at the Board level but that seems to have cleared up. They have a strong balance sheet, with $328 million in debt compared to $2.17 billion of equity. Their production this year will be about the same as last year. He thinks this stock is cheap, like…

PD has done relatively well, considering the drillers have been hammered in this sell-off. Need to see this hold at $2.80. There's been heavy tax-loss selling in oil. Don't step until January. See if resistance holds.

They executed the plan flawlessly. The declining gas price challenges them. Thinks it is pretty neat. Prefers TOU because it is a bigger company. If you are patient with PNE-X in a low gas market it seems they have a strategy for taking advantage of the low gas price.

Still very early stage. A long lead cycle. They are trying to get over the hump. They are de-risking assets. They are trying to maintain a nice clean balance sheet. They have easy access to capital so the market is willing to finance the project. There are companies further along the process, though.

Coming out of Arc Financial (private equity). Clean balance sheet. Trading at 1.9 times next year EBITDA. Historical average in Canada of a pumper is 7. Liquidity vacuum in the stock market is creating this opportunity. (Analysts’ price target is $18.20)

There are higher oil prices, but oil stocks are hitting lows. This is a tremendous disconnected. Seasonlity is in the first half of the year, the run-up to summer driving when the oil price peaks. This year, we're not seeing the typical rally in SU-T. The tone is pessimistic, but there is a great buying…

(A Top Pick Feb 09/18, Down 57%) He sold them out at $3.50 back in April or May last year. Oil was at $60 and cash flow was growing. He liked this pressure pumper then. But now natural gas prices have gone to zero and condensate discounts have expanded. The whole service sector was decimated.

(A Top Pick Apr 5/17, Down 6.73%) It would have been terrible to be here in June of last year. They under promise and over deliver. This is a core way to dabble in energy.

(A Top Pick Mar 08/18, Down 8%) One of the biggest gas producers in Canada. He is surprised it has been as stable as it has. It has done a good job with hedging and market diversification. Still a core holding.

One of the 1st ones to unlock a zone in the Cardium, and now the industry is following them. Their results have been getting better and better and better. Production per share has been very, very strong. This is one that can compete with the US names.

It's been stuck at these levels for a long time, but likes recent volumes. No problem buying this one.

Play on the US housing recovery as well as timber, as they ship to US and Asia. Management bought 3 sawmills in 2006 which have been losing money. Have recapitalized a couple of the mills and are looking for better utilization. With better timber prices, she is expecting it to turn around and will probably…

(Market Call Minute.) Lumber is probably the poster child for seasonality. The time to own is going into the 4th quarter. There has been some improvement in housing which favours lumber producers, and this is one of the best suited. He would look toward September.

Has an old mine outside of Los Angeles that was run in the 1930s. Closed down during the Second World War and they are doing open pit mining in the area. Has some issues, but at these gold prices, it will probably start to work again. Under followed. Highly speculative.

Operated by the Lundine family. This has been a truly outstanding Canadian success story. It mines and markets some of the highest quality diamonds globally. Earnings on a quarterly basis are lumpy, but over the course of a year they earn and distribute a lot of money. Return on cost employed in this mine is…

Yukon. Million oz discovered. Large potential to expand.

Management is first-class. The stock may be fully priced given where they are in the assets that they acquired. However, if you go back in time with this management, you don’t do poorly investing with them.

Mainly in Alaska and Arizona. Stock is generally not known. Project generation. Relationships and projects with several other companies. It spreads the risk.

This is the unknown royalty company. They bought the royalty package from Sherrit, that was the old CP royalty package. He knows those assets extremely well. Feels this is the best collection of brainpower, cash and royalty cash flow relative to market cap available on the planet.

Picked up a large land package in Ontario and Québec. Conceptually picked up on trend large deposits of Detour (DGC-T) and looking to replicate the same success.

A fantastic story. Have about 5 billion pounds of copper and gold. Cash costs in this environment should be about negative. Sees upside in this one.

They are active in several concessions in Mongolia. Any one of their projects could be a major mine. Should do well over the long term.

A lot of people want to play the housing market in the US and their recovery, which hasn’t really recovered the way people thought it would. Last year there were 900,000 new homes sold, and somewhere between 1 and 1.5 million new homes is a reasonable expectation. This company sells all the stuff that goes…

Compared to Canfor (CFP-T) and West Fraser (WFT-T), this has the least exposure to the softwood lumber issue. Only 15%-20% of their product is shipped across the US border. 60% of their production is already in the US. The housing market in the US is growing, but is still growing quite slowly because of the…

A few days ago they acquired a historic mine and believe that there is more ore in the mine. It transforms the company and gives them a project they can sink their teeth into and gives them a new direction.

They are traying to lower their debt. Some momentum above $1.20. It had a break out from 75 cents. Has a few places of resistance as t works its way up. A stock he is trying to acquire.

Just announced a 70% increase in their mineral reserves. 7.7 million ounces of gold and 3.6 billion of copper. Extended the Prosperity mine life from 20 years to 33 years. It will be the largest gold/copper reserve project in Canada. Expect they will get a partner.

Haven’t looked at it for 2 years. REIT sector hasn’t had great tailwinds, with rates going up. But now REITs have outperformed the TSX. Artis reissued securities, has assets in the US. Balance sheet getting a bit better, solid management. But company is unfocussed. Other REITs are doing better. Struggling to find its identity. Avoid…

Has held in remarkably well given the manufacturing slowdown in Canada. One of his largest holdings in one of his funds. One of the 2 cheapest stocks in the universe that he covers. A really strong ROE at 23%. Trading at 4.5X Price to Free Cash Flow, so is really cheap. Dividend yield of 6.5%.…

This is too big for him, since he invests in small/mid-caps. Canadian consumers are levered up, so he doesn't buy Canadian banks. He prefers TD.

Great company. They have been the quality act in the funds business. He has a soft spot for them as they were the very first client when he started in business in 1993. ETFs are putting them under pressure. Fees are coming down. It is not a growth business anymore. Their writing is a little…

(A Top Pick March 20/13. Down 58%.)

GWO-T vs. MFC-T. MFC-T has the advantage of being a very diversified company, globally. They have done well from that diversification. He tends to prefer it to GWO-T, although he might use its weakness to buy.

It is a smaller cap REIT. The payout is high. Most of the earnings are US$ translated back to CAD$, which just appreciated over the last three months. The market is pricing this depreciation in the yield into the stock. He is not expecting a dividend cut, but it is a possibility. AIR B&B’s have…

They are doing a good job. It has broken above its 50 day moving average. The trend is in a non-aggressive down trend. It is near the top of its channel.

PWF bought three separate companies--Investors Group, Great-West Life and London Life--and will do now synergize them, which is a good thing. It'll take a few years, but this will reduce overhead and costs and let them compete better with MFC and SLF.

This is secondary (suburban) office. There is going to be a really interesting play in suburban office at some point. You’ll have to watch for GDP numbers for small business growth in Canada. There is quite a large spread in what people are willing to pay, for class A buildings versus suburban office. These guys…

If you can't buy the coin directly this is a very interesting leveraged play. It is one of the biggest bit coin miners out there. Two years from now the net asset value of the company could double. (Analysts’ target: $7.85).

They issued a lot of shares to get the deal done. It is a great business. The press release today said the loan book is growing. This is incredibly fast. They will have to raise more debt financing soon. You have an overhang from PHM-X with the same management. They just need a few quarters…

This buys small grocery anchored centres. It is so small that it is hard to get some love. If you own it, it is going to move around and will be very volatile. You are going to lose and gain. The main part of your return is going to be your yield, currently over 11%,…

Market Call Minute. There is not a lot of earnings momentum on this, and they have to do a lot internally to get their business model going.

Thinks there is a lot of disarray in the company right now. Cut their dividends earlier in the year.

If it breaks $110 we are going up. He just picked it up. He likes the basing here we just saw. There is a downtrend overhanging it. He thinks the risk/reward is really good. It is a good place to pickup at least half the position.

Should one buy Dream, which pays no dividend and has dropped significantly in value or just buy its managed REITs and be happy with the 8% distribution? Really depends on your needs. If you need theincome or happy with the capital gains. This is the asset manager that manages the REITs. It also has a…

He owns a lot of their debt. But he'd rather invest in Warren Buffet than Prem Watsa. WB is a better buyer/investor overall.

Chart shows it has had 2 little bottoms, and is positive that the downtrend has been broken. Financials in general have been pretty weak. Until this one breaks out of the downtrend channel, he would not start a new position. Rising interest rates help financials. Dividend yield of 6.3%.

A name where there was a lot of growth priced in on the IPO. The company is still growing, but not profitably yet. However, it is so oversold and we are starting to see the bounce. That is probably the end of tax loss selling and you could see a nice trade in it here.

He normally has iShares DEX Short-Term Bond (XSB-T), but is looking for something that will give him a little bit of an edge. This is about 60% Canadian Corp., about 25% US, as well as some US high-yield. The distribution yield and their yield to maturity are close, which is unusual. They are also doing…

An equal weight of US banks and includes some regional banks along with some of the big banks. He would prefer to own the larger market cap weighted ETF’s, such as XLF-N.

Has been beaten up and you are getting double gearing to basket of producers. You are not taking single company risks.

A good ETF. You're swapping a lot of income for growth. If you want that, then fine.

HBP S&P 500 Bull (HSU-T) or BMO Equal Weight US Banks Hedged To CDN$ (ZUB-T)? These are 2 completely different things. A lot of people are negative on Bull+ and Bear+ ETFs but he thinks there is a place for these things but he doesn’t think it is here. Thinks it is going to be…

Given that the energy space is volatile, but not overly sold, the covered call strategies have looked pretty attractive over the last couple of years. Generally speaking, he is not an energy fan or investor. However, when his arm gets twisted by a TSX that roars forward, and he is not playing that game, he…

A bit tricky in that Suncor is a big part of it. If you really believe and want to invest in oil, particularly in Western Canada, the guys that are going to get the biggest kicks are the ones that have been hammered down. The boys out West have done a really good job in…

MSCI EAFE (CAD-Hedged) ETF. International. Cap weighted. Broadly diversified. It tracks the MSCI EAFE index, so it is a whole wide variety of 1st world economy stocks.

If you are looking for a growth story in Canada, not including energy, you'll have to look at midcaps. Avoids volatility.

(A Top Pick Sept 1/11. Up 15.83%.) Given the choice, you should always tilt towards small cap in value. There aren't a lot of value-based ETF's but there are a lot more in the US. Currency hedged.

(A Top Pick Feb 10/11. Up 2.51%.) Junior Oil Index ETF. Low interest rates and high oil prices makes oils particularly good because of takeovers.

Loves this space (U.S. banks). He owns many of them. He'd add to ZUB here. Some U.S. banks, like JP Morgan, report earnings next week. Another catalyst is their trading revenue is expected to rise in a big way. Interest rates rising are anothe tailwind.

Is this a buy over the next 1-2 years? He thinks the buy in by Aurora was interesting. Their existing business is going through transformation and they are working at trying to improve on or sell assets – especially in Alberta. He is on the fringe of wanting to own it.

He sees it going a little higher than it is today. It has been a darling for a long time. In a recession, people tend to shop down.

They tend to do well during the summer time. From March to August it gets the bulk of its gain. In the back half of the year it tends to turn lower.

Price is discounting a large recession. Trading at 5x 2019 expected earnings. Revenues and earnings are still expected to be positive this year. Also in aerial lifts and agriculture. More diversified than Magna. Yield is 1.06%. (Analysts’ price target is $61.50)

The industry has been hammered in the last couple of years. It is hard to analyze. The results aren’t that transparent. It is hard to know how it is doing organically. He does not think the company was that well managed in the past. It is a wait and see approach.

Doesn’t own dual class share companies, but this one has been an amazing growth story. Incredibly successful. If he didn’t have an issue with dual class shares, he might actually buy this. It is unbelievable to him that in an industry which is low growth, they have made some great acquisitions and they cover all…

What normally happens with the smaller brewers is that they get taken out. He likes the company, but doesn’t follow it closely. A good story with good earnings growth.

It's been a rollercoaster, killed in Q4. but he's expected a big year in the cinemas in Q2 and Q3 with a lot of box office money to be made. Also, the Rec Rooms and selling wine and beer in all theatres are good diversifiers. CGX competes with home video streaming, though. CGX is priced…

They make bikes, baby furniture, baby equipment, car seats, etc. The family that is involved in it owns a significant stake. He sees better days ahead. It is trading at a reasonable valuation. Dividend yield of about 4%.

Music on your cable box. They put up a good quarter recently and raised their dividend. There is insider trading. It is going to become a street darling. It is somewhat illiquid. (Analysts’ target: $10.00).

(A Top Pick Sep 26/17, Up 10%) They just won a huge law suit against AAPL-Q and the stock is up a lot today. He would not count it as money in the bank as AAPL-Q is going to appeal. This company may also win other suits in progress. They have lots of money in…

Provides a service very similar to Alphabet (GOOGL-Q), which is provided for free. When your competitor is providing your services free, it is tough to be competitive.

$300 million in cash and less than 9 times earnings. They just can’t get any love. It had a bit better execution in terms of earnings and they could get recognized. They buy back stocks. Leverage on their operations is quite high and it has not performed yet. (Analysts’ target: $14.87).

It just landed on his watch list. He needs to study it more. It's had troubles. In the past 52 weeks it hit nearly $60, but is now around $8. Another great Canadian company that's having all kinds of problems: heavy debt, a satellite that imploded that hit revenues badly. He waits at least 6…

Gas play in Guatemala and Colombia. Have a lot of land blocks near where Petrominerales (PMG-T) hit. Just drilled a well with a fairly large target in Guatemala and found oil at a much higher area than expected. Cased the well and we'll hear more next week. Highly speculative.

Akumin on the TSX will migrate to NASDAQ which will be a big catalyst. It trades in U.S. dollars. They're a medical imaging company, a space ripe for consolidation. AKU is also in artificial intelligence. (Analysts' price target: $6.00)

Has some zip to it. Long term it should do well.

They are a leader in Canada, used to be in the US but pulled back. He bought it but it pulled back. He is getting a good return from the coupons. He thinks this one can double. They have more debt than he would like to see but the payout ratio is reasonable. It is…

They are going to have a lot of catalysts between now and Q1 2018 on their drugs and some of their trials. He sold it higher up for technical reasons. He would hold onto it because of the catalysts.

Payout ratio is 78%, pretty safe. Modelling 20% EPS growth. Recent acquisition is performing well. Pretty cheap. Have had higher labour costs. Two things to watch: 1) very whippy, as it’s a small cap, 2) balance sheet, if we’re going into a recession. If we don’t have a recession for a while, you can do…

They have a Caterpillar franchise out west and are in Latin America. They have a facility where they remanufacture Caterpillar parts. If you think there are legs left in the mining cycle you could add to it.

It is one he does not own. He has looked at it in detail. On a PE and multiple basis it trades cheap and always has done. Over the long term you will be able to see them pay a few extra pennies with dividend increases. The multiple looks attractive but don't catch the falling…

Fixed price energy contracts door to door. It has done fairly well. The turn in terms of their clients is so high, though. He does not feel that comfortable with them. 8% yield and do people really believe it?

Well run company. Long term hold.