This week’s new 52-week lows… (Dec 12-18)
There’s been quite a lot of stocks falling below their 52-week low which reflects the state of the market.
Here’s this week’s 52-week low stocks.
Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Not overly expensive with a market cap approaching $1B. Momentum is good. Growth is looking good this year and the sector is recovering. Would let this run for now. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
Debt concerns? BXE took bankruptcy protection when debt became too much. There is no equity value in it any longer. Companies that have debt that matures in 2020 or 2021 will have issues. He sees no issues with BIR or TVE on this topic. The new Federal relief program for large companies may be difficult…
It is a liquids rich player with very high liquids content. The problem is that the market cap is below the radar, and the debt is high. It was a $4 plus stock when we had decent gas prices. They are looking to bring their debt down. He thinks the company will survive. They've been…
HSE-T + CVE-T: Stay after the merger? He does not own either one. He understands the merger makes sense. There are a lot of cost savings that can be found. He prefers CNQ-T, PXT-T and one of his Top Picks today. He prefers these to HSE-T. If the sector bounces back you could get an…
Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Some weakness after earnings would not be a surprise after running up 34% this year. Targets are going up after the release and there is not much to pick on that would justify the weakness. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
Natural gas? The outlook for natural gas has improved as associated production has impacted by shut in oil production. He is not fond of PEY as they have covenant violations (that should be worked out). He has others he prefers.
Pengrowth (PGF-T) and Perpetual (PMT-T)? Had some challenges with their balance sheet over the last couple of years with the collapse in oil prices. This one would be a little riskier. If you really see a big jump in commodity prices, this probably has a lot more upside than Pengrowth (PGF-T).
Has been an unfortunate story. Was a leading player in shale gas in Quebec a number of years. The government came out against it. Has some western Canadian production that has cash flow. Balance sheet is relatively clean. Started talking about carbon capture and storage. There is some insider buying recently.
Underperformed. A lot of people owned it for the yield, paying more than they should. Once they cut the dividend, many people exited. Might be an opportunity as an international play. Leveraged to oil price.
The company is very cheap in terms of price to book. Their book value was $4 at the end of June. However, they have a debt problem: $211 million of debt compared to an equity value of $369 million. He sees this as a takeover candidate especially now because he is seeing consolidation in the…
(A Top Pick Aug 13/18, Down 61%) They disenfranchised the Canadian shareholders. He sold out sooner before the de listing, so did not do as badly, nor did his subscribers. He disagrees with their move.
As the world drifts to e-cars and renewable energy, oil continues to rebound in 2021, driven by the reopening. American cars are hitting the road this Memorial Day weekend and will cover a lot of miles this summer fueled by pent-up demand from people dying to get out of their homes. Others will fly. All…
Could buy up to 10% outstanding shares at current cashflow and pay 4-7% dividend. The issue for them is refinancing their note due February of next year at $450M USD. At $50 oil, they were generating $14M in free cashflow, at $70 it is $274M free cashflow which is 70% free cashflow yield. Remains one…
The dividend stocks as a group has underperformed. There's nothing wrong with the fund. He would prefer technology stocks although they don't pay dividends.
Focused on nat gas, unlike SU. Strong seasonality right now, which favours BIR, until mid-late June. A reasonable buy at this point.
It gives you leverage to WTI oil. About 25% of their production is heavy oil. Like many oil companies in 2021-22, BTE is reducing debt as we caught in 2020 with too much debt. What hinders their upside is that they've hedged a lot of their production--50% of it is capped at US$52 per barrel.…
He won't buy any service stocks today. It just isn't profitable; the market isn't rewarding drilling. Stop drilling and buy stocks, is his message to the oil industry. He'd rather buy Trican who are buying back stock.
Bought 7% of the company. A name where you get mature assets with strong leverage to a rising oil price. Strong dividends and share buy backs. At 4x multiple at $70 oil, it would trade at $5.60 share price, a 67% upside potential.
They have cut back and preserved capital. They do not have a debt issue. They are a gas play. If gas prices stay strong, they should do well. She anticipates their 4th quarter production being lower. She is not buying it today, but the future looks good.
They did a flow through share. The company is involved in oil and Nat. gas. He has a $1.20 target on it. If they can generate more cash flow they can get the debt down. He likes it. He may add on weakness.
It is a stock that is very cheap. With high energy prices, that has lifted all of these companies. It was as low as 10% of its book value. His fair market value has been going literally straight up. He would stay with it. He recommended it as a speculative buy a while ago as…
Just beat earnings and have increased production. Cheap valuation compared to peers. But it's getting more expensive heading into 2021. There's no growth here, but that goes with the entire oil patch. The real issue is will they survive. Their balance sheet is getting better, but still high for a blue-chip name. You'll be saved…
He stayed away because they went to the states to make acquisitions. He did not know why the Americans would not already take these assets. He stays away from it.
A court ruled that the pipeline can flow until March next year. This pipeline has never had an issue. Optimistic that it will not be shutdown. Bought two assets and increased drilling inventory to 10 years. At $70 oil, it is trading at 3x enterprise value to cashflow, and 31% free cashflow yield. (Analysts’ price…
An oil and gas drilling company in North America. Oil and gas services companies have additional leverage on the oil markets which already have significant volatility. If we get into the positive sweet spot it can raise prices and make a lot of money, but we are not there yet. They have been through multiple…
NexGen vs. Fission He owns both Fission and NexGen. They're far from infrastructure in the Athabasca Basin and would be challenged if it wasn't for their deposits being large and of quality (and next to each other). They could get built as a pair. The Fission deposit is borderline-tier one deposit, whole Nexgen's is. The…
(A Top Pick Mar 20/20, Up 77%) Picked it again for top pick. Biggest holding in his portfolios. Very undervalued company in the oil and gas area. Generates huge amounts of free cashflow with 5% dividend. Trades at half the valuation of other royalty companies.
Leverage was a past problem, not now. It's a smallcap. They have decommissioning (of oil wells) liabilities. They produce lower-quality barrels, not as good as, say, WCP. This never made the cut for him, and the smallcap is unattractive.
It rose 4x since the mid-March low. Production is and will shut down in Q2 and Q3, and won't return until Q4. They are seeking financial support from the EDC and BDC, which are not giving support to any Canadian oil companies. There needs to be more support though reports today say that the rules…
It is quite a small company. It is hugely volatile. There a lot of problems over the years with the pricing of data coming from India regarding a 10% stake in another company. They have too much debt. The price of the gas they sell has been negotiated. A tough name to predict.
(A Top Pick Oct 22/18, Down 88%) He sold at $3.22, taking a big loss. They have a lot of worries. They are looking to sell the company. They might just liquidate the company, but clean up could be very expensive. He does not like stock consolidations and used that as a trigger to get…
We are on a different cycle than in the past. The business model has shifted which is now positive for oil macro. Oil production growth is no longer elastic to rising oil prices. They are now taking free cashflow and companies are now buying back stocks. There is an opportunity for a rerate. Owned it…
In tough shape. They made the wrong bet on natural gas. Sell it and buy elsewhere. But it will pay off over five years.
Has nat gas exposure--and he's bearish on all nat gas stocks. Market cap is way too low for investors to really care for in this sector.
70% fracking and then they have coil tubing. They are pretty cheap. They are doing reasonably well. It is really, really cheap. The two biggest shareholders are funds so liquidity is an issue Buy on weakness; he would have a target of $5.
It's been painful to own Canadian oil and gas. Hard to see any pipelines being approved in NA going forward. The only way this goes up is if oil prices move up for a long time, and if they did he'd sell. Well run, but trading where it was 15 years ago.
Doesn't see much upside here, though there will be pricing power finally for the pressure-pumpers now that foreign players have left Canada. He begs companies like this not to invest excess money to drill a lot, just keep drilling flat. And use excess cash to buy back shares. The space is less competitive than before.…
(A Top Pick Jun 19/20, Up 82%) Was bought by Whitecap two months ago. Was bought at an attractive valuation. Would continue to own Whitecap.
He owns its peers. He likes the natural gas space. TOU stands out. The U.S. is increasing its exports. Events like last winter's storm drives demand. TOU will do good for investors in the next few years. [Note: audio problems]
There are aspects that will detract institutional ownership. There are some promotional aspects. The name is cheap and are paying down debt. It is not a name he is looking at. The quantitative and qualitative aspects need to match and for him it does not meet his requirements.
🛢 Basic Materials
It's been stuck at these levels for a long time, but likes recent volumes. No problem buying this one.
Forestry space He owns no names. The stocks are okay but face trade disputes and an economic slowdown that will hit housing stocks. The stocks have been beaten up.
Largest operator in North America of lumber mills. After a decade of low lumber prices, Canadian lumber capacity has severely curtailed. This gives the backdrop for huge cash flows out of forest products area. Trading at 2x 2021 earnings. Could double over the next year. (Analysts’ price target is $43.00)
Has an old mine outside of Los Angeles that was run in the 1930s. Closed down during the Second World War and they are doing open pit mining in the area. Has some issues, but at these gold prices, it will probably start to work again. Under followed. Highly speculative.
The company has suspended its dividend. They operate diamond mines in South Africa. They are looking into underground, from open pit. The cost is more expensive than thought. The price of diamonds has been reduced, though retail prices won’t change.
Agnico-Eagle (AEM-T) came in a while ago and made a 9.9% stake in this company. The stock went up, but it really hasn’t done much since then. Then Barrick (ABX-T) came in and said they really liked the deposit and wanted to do a joint venture. This is a much better approach that is better…
Likes the managers, but concerned with the topography. A decent-sized gold project. A good speculation.
Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Growth has been good and the balance sheet is decent. The royalty properties are solid. They have some potential to grow dividends. Valuation is high at 29x earnings for a small company. Management has done a good job and the sector remains good. Unlock Premium - Try 5i…
Wallbridge Mining to buy Balmoral It depends on your timeframe--some will take the premium in Balmoral and grab the profit. He expects in two years that the deal will benefit shareholders with lower costs. The Abitibi is a great gold district. If he owned this, he'd hang onto it.
Highly leveraged to the copper price, and is a major producer. Has a great outlook. They are reducing costs to improve efficiency. Debt is an issue, but the high copper price solves this and enhances margins. It's up 500% in the past year. Too much beta for him though, but this is fine if you…
This now has a project in Mongolia which has epithermal veins, which he loves. When you do find them and they carry great grades, it can grow really fast. This has a 50 g/meter width quite prominent with something like 16% which gets him excited. Still very early stage.
Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. The sector and in particular the company has shown good momentum. Good cash flow off-sets their stretched balance sheet. Cheap on valuation. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
The free cashflow coming off this stock is phenomenal. Trading at 2x expected earnings this year. Forest product companies are difficult due to the fact they sell commodities. Primarily the owner of lumber mills. There is a shortage of lumber in the NA market due to continual moves by the US against the Canadian lumber…
“Jumps and Steps” – quite common in junior companies. Each jump is a news item. As it gets closer to production, it will keep on doing this. Pullbacks are due to profit taking. Must stay above the $0.30 level, otherwise it may be bad news.
Getting to the right theme is the most important thing. Has a good basket of assets. Recently pulled back. It's a small cap, so you have to be careful. But it should continue to participate as long as base materials continue to improve.
This is on his watch list. He is not familiar with their fundamentals. Today's earnings release will help define their future.
It's exposed to western Canada, an unloved asset class, but the valuation is very attractive and the new CEO has a new plan to flexibly invest in private and public real estate. This combination is great. The dividend pays over 5%, so you're paid to wait. The CEO has a track record restructuring asset. Artis…
He tends to shy away from the construction industry. It's volatile, very low margins, risk of cost overruns. Consulting is more lucrative and steady, as with WSP. Trade it if you want.
(A Top Pick Jul 09/21, Up 103%) Still a holder of BMO. Trimmed a little due to the valuation being quite high. Dividend yield is also being compressed. Investors are looking at banks for the anticipated dividend increases. Still owns it. When yields pop up to above 4%, they will buy back more.
They acquire a lot of businesses, especially in the U.S. investment advsiors, and are shifting from mutual funds to private investment advisory. This will be a powerful platform. The stock has been languishing below $20 for a long time, especially in 2020. When markets go down, asset managers go down more, and rise more than…
It broke a down trend. It has pretty weak upside. The recent level of highs has not been taken out. It is struggling.
He owns and likes both this and SLF. Both GWO and SLF have 52% revenue exposure from Canada, but SLF has a bit more Asian exposure and GWO has European exposure. GWO has outperformed the TSX since last April/May, but there's more to go. Both will benefit from rising yields. GWO's yield is about 4.73%.
Hotels are typically the first sector to go down in a downturn and the first to come out. Today there is zero visibility, however. He would move on from this one.
A Quebec based financial services, insurance, financial advice and brokerage. They have been caught up in the brought sell-off in financial stocks. Interest rates being low has hurt them. However, he sees interest rates rising as the economy improves. Top 3% on valuation, 8x PE, 4x cashflow and 1x book value. It is cheap with…
(A Top Pick Dec 04/19, Up 13%) He'd buy it again. Nice value stock. Nice yield. Trading at discount to book. Would benefit from rising interest rates, which he expects. Cheaper than all the banks.
He is not bull on the office space. They have been growing in sub-markets he is not keen on. 37% is in Atlantic Canada and he is not keen on their holdings.
Hut-8 is another Canadian Bitcoin miner headquarted in Toronto, though it trades on the TSX. Daily volumes average 2.5 million, but swing wildly. Over 12 months, Bitfarms outperforms HUT-T 753% vs 858%, but the stocks have run in parallel the past month. Neither stock pays a dividend (no surprise). HUT's EPS in -0.22 while BITF's…
(A Top Pick Feb 24/16. Down 43.33%.) This was a big disappointment. They changed their focus on their business plan. He got stopped out. They were basically doing loans to doctors, but have now changed and is doing software service. The market didn’t like that.
Small and obscure and in commercial real estate that he doesn't like. This will suffer if there's a downturn. This is also small-cap; better to buy a larger-cap REIT.
We'll see very good numbers out of the investment management companies, given the run in markets. He hasn't looked at AGF lately, but it's interesting. The current 4% dividend could slightly rise. AGF is fairly valued as is its PE. Hold, if you own.
He owns this one and likes the management team. There seems to be a consistent buyer of this stock. They have high margins. It is not cheap at these levels. There are not too many ways to play technology from a real estate perspective. They have a strong position on pricing data in the real…
Likes it. More Canadian-centric than their peers. The banks are delivering very good ROE, though not sure if they can maintain that. CM pays a dividend over 4%. It's well-managed.
Blackstone took over Dream Global, and DRM got a large cheque out of it in their holdings and asset management contract. They've since done a large issuer bid that that the biggest shareholder, the CEO, tendered into below NAV. So, the NAV has grown. DRM will benefit from lower interest rates. (Analysts’ price target is…
If we get inflation that translates into higher long term interest rates then it should help insurance companies. It has a big equity portfolio compared to others. The risk-reward ratio is different. He prefers MFC-T.
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly IGM is a $10 billion Canadian financial services business with brand names including IG Wealth Management and Mackenzie Investments. It trades at 13x earnings compared to peers at 29x. With its expected growth in earnings, its PEG ratio is 1.03 and it trades at under 2x book value. It pays…
Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. It is up 172% this year. The company is reaping the benefits of transaction volumes surging with bitcoin price. Moves with the bitcoin price. A little rich at around 10x sales. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
(A Top Pick Feb 16/16. Up 6.28%.) This has some creative stuff and he had been looking for bond portfolios that are actively managed and a little bit outside the normal ETF’s. He is still buying some of this.
You have credit risk for mortgages. Banks are well provisioned for credit losses, though these might be loosened shortly. The yield curve is steepening so in the short run, banks are more profitable. It's hard to say how much is priced in. Not early but if the yield curve remains steep, banks will do well…
HPB Energy Bull+ ETF. Immediate leverage to oil price moves. If you have a very good near-term bet that you want to make on oil this would be the way to go but if you are looking for an investment in the oil patch that has a long-term investment implications, then you should go to…
Cuts in dividends? This ETF covered writes about 33% of the portfolio. The higher volatility in energy adds well to value -- buffering about 10% of the total loss. The dividends could be cut entirely by the companies. The premiums would likely maintained.
HBP S&P 500 Bull (HSU-T) or BMO Equal Weight US Banks Hedged To CDN$ (ZUB-T)? These are 2 completely different things. A lot of people are negative on Bull+ and Bear+ ETFs but he thinks there is a place for these things but he doesn’t think it is here. Thinks it is going to be…
This is a call on oil. He is not going to want to buy a lot of oil. This is the 15 largest companies and they write covered calls. You will collect much higher premiums for the calls. But he would be cautious of this one.
Average adviser clients would have 5-20% allocation in energy. It is cyclical and volatile. It could go down. Wouldn't recommend holding more than 20% weighting in the sector. Current energy weighting on the TSX is 12%.
Europe, Australia, and Far East so has been affected by Brexit. A good ETF but hasn't performed well. Could buy ZWE, which is more European based. Would like to see more U.S. exposure.
(A Top Pick August 8/17, Up 8%) This holds what’s left over from the XIU 60. Wanted to get into some smaller stuff to get better diversification, and focus on this rather than the broader-based indices.
It's the US small caps index. They do better in times of declining yields and higher growth. This is good if you want to hunker down and hedge the US dollar. Small caps are beat up, but he predicts a rotation in the coming year to favour small caps. XSU is decent, but he prefers…
He would recommend taking a tax loss on this and buying into his energy fund. His fund has fewer names and a larger average market cap. The ETF is passive -- he prefers active management.
In general, US financials have had trouble tracking the S&P. He's underweight financials. Net interest margins, loan losses, economic uncertainty. Had moved up, but now back down.
Alcanna (CLIQ-T) TSE
Over time it will come back. They have a strong position in liquor retailing and have moved into Cannabis. They are clearly going to be a survivor. They are going to be able to consolidate.
(A Top Pick Jun 11/20, Up 13%) He sold. Still likes the company, but he had better ideas in the near-term. Windfall last year, as it was an essential retailer. This year, comparisons will lag and some aisles are off-limits as non-essential.
BRP INC (DOO-T) TSE
Frustrating when you get things right on the demand side, but supply doesn't follow through. That's the risk going forward. The chip shortage is catching everyone. Hold on to it. The theme of outdoor recreation is here to stay, and demand will last for quite some time.
2019 was affected by a GM strike. In 2021 it is shaping up to be a full recovery as each of their three businesses are coming back. Insider buying activity further reinforces his positive view. (Analysts’ price target is $100.40)
It is unbelievable where this stock is trading at. Acquisitions this year are worth less than half what they paid for them. It was trading at less than half what it was worth. They are trading below the amount of cash they have. It shocks him how far it continues to go down.
The stock has seen some significant down moves in recent weeks. Starting to show up with buy recommendations based on value. The company is well positioned as the second largest wine producer in Canada. Dealing with some headwinds. Strengthening CAD will create more imports which can be difficult for domestic producers. A short term speculative…
(A Top Pick Jun 18/18, Up 1%) Still likes it. It's well-run. They're growing their brands and they have a big opportunity to get into cannabis beverages which will be legal in Canada in October 2019. BRB is well-positioned for this and this market could be very large.
Difficulty is that we're still in the pandemic. A lot of content has moved to streaming, so it will be hard to get people back to the theatre, plus logistical problems of health safety. The movie Black Widow will be an interesting test case.
Pleasantly surprised with the business fundamentals. Aspects of their business are growing. Very undemanding valuation. Continue to hold. It's on his watch list.
Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Their Q3 report was very positive and beat estimates. The revenue forecast is 40% compared to last year. The EBITDA forecast is nearly 75% of 2019 levels. The stock should start being more noticed. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
Provides a service very similar to Alphabet (GOOGL-Q), which is provided for free. When your competitor is providing your services free, it is tough to be competitive.
A contract manufacturer for electronics, communications, and storage. The move to the cloud has benefited them. The stock has struggled for a while but it is too cheap to ignore right now. Top 10% on valuation. 0.6x book value, 4.3x enterprise to EBITA, and 4x cashflow. A cashflow machine with no concerns on the balance…
The space sector is promising. Still owns this and bought more with the weakness. With digital globe acquisition, they have married the space area well. Low level orbit satellite structure is promising. There are companies that need their data. Best positioned to combine data and put it in a good format. The valuation is still…
Just announced a discovery in Columbia. Flow tested over 2000 barrels per day. This well could produce up to 5000 when brought into production. A very well distributed stock so it might not jump too fast. Company could get taken out.
A frustrating position. Imaging clinics in the US. Performing well and acquiring clinics. Higher margins than peers. Positive news has come out, so the rest of the year should be better, closing the gap in the valuation. Generating free cashflow and paying down debt. Alzheimer's drug will push organic demand for scans.
(A Top Pick Dec 20/18, Down 40%) It had a good turn in January. Beaten down stocks can have a nice bounce in January.
There's always something that stops him from entering the seniors space in REITs: labour, regulator issues, though again demographics are a positive. That isn't a good enough, though. How will governments with huge debts supplement the entire seniors home space? However, EXE is cheap. This space is too volatile.
They hit a financing crisis and needed cash. So, they issued 20 billion share at 1.5 cents per share. A massive dilution that destroyed the shareholder base. Avoid.
It is a good cyclical play. Trading at a premium but the earnings will likely come up. A whippy stock. Much better outlook for manufacturing and aviation. Should not be a core position but it is a recovery play.
Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. The stock took a hit from political moves in Chile. Overall it is a good grower and more growth is expected over the next two years. Currently trading at 18x earnings. Metals and mining stocks have been doing well recently. It is worth holding at…
Represents value and cyclicality, which have been rewarded. Stable printing business, depressed volumes are coming back. New direction in flexible packaging is exciting and a growth business. Have made some specialty printing acquisitions. Consistent dividend grower, which should return this year. Potential for a multiple re-rating is significant. Lots of upside.
It formed a nice base. It has a strong yield. It is coming out the last few days. We are getting close to a break out.
He bought it as a value play with sum of the parts worth more than it was trading at. They are trying to sell some of the parts. Thinks they will sell all the parts and distribute the cash. $4-$5 breakup value. It is taking longer than he thought to break it up.
Use this list wisely to identify buying opportunities.
Happy trading !!!