This week’s new 52-week lows… (Dec 12-18)

Almost entirely natural gas based company. Paying for premium on carbon capture technology involvement with Entropy. Not enough opportunity to justify investment. Better opportunities in oil weighted companies.

Debt concerns? BXE took bankruptcy protection when debt became too much. There is no equity value in it any longer. Companies that have debt that matures in 2020 or 2021 will have issues. He sees no issues with BIR or TVE on this topic. The new Federal relief program for large companies may be difficult…

It is a liquids rich player with very high liquids content. The problem is that the market cap is below the radar, and the debt is high. It was a $4 plus stock when we had decent gas prices. They are looking to bring their debt down. He thinks the company will survive. They've been…

HSE-T + CVE-T: Stay after the merger? He does not own either one. He understands the merger makes sense. There are a lot of cost savings that can be found. He prefers CNQ-T, PXT-T and one of his Top Picks today. He prefers these to HSE-T. If the sector bounces back you could get an…

Likes all transportation, especially this one.

PEY vs. BIR vs. ARX LNG Canada is bringing a significant export opportunity for all Canadian nat gas companies towards the end of 2025. This will be transformational. He likes all Canadian nat gas producers on a volume basis. His preference is ARX, as it's diversified with undeveloped land. Prefers PEY to BIR; management is…

Pengrowth (PGF-T) and Perpetual (PMT-T)? Had some challenges with their balance sheet over the last couple of years with the collapse in oil prices. This one would be a little riskier. If you really see a big jump in commodity prices, this probably has a lot more upside than Pengrowth (PGF-T).

Has been an unfortunate story. Was a leading player in shale gas in Quebec a number of years. The government came out against it. Has some western Canadian production that has cash flow. Balance sheet is relatively clean. Started talking about carbon capture and storage. There is some insider buying recently.

One of the most international oil names in Canada. Is vulnerable to crude oil prices moves, so it has pulled back lately. She only lightly invests in this area and isn't buying energy producers. Oil is too hard to forecast.

The company is very cheap in terms of price to book. Their book value was $4 at the end of June. However, they have a debt problem: $211 million of debt compared to an equity value of $369 million. He sees this as a takeover candidate especially now because he is seeing consolidation in the…

(A Top Pick Aug 13/18, Down 61%) They disenfranchised the Canadian shareholders. He sold out sooner before the de listing, so did not do as badly, nor did his subscribers. He disagrees with their move.

Natural gas prices have been clobbered. Prices usually decline this time of year. Surplus of nat gas. Astute management. Potential deals for LNG. Nat gas prices may not hit prior robust levels, but any boost will benefit ARX.

High exposure to rising oil prices.Excellent prospects going forward.Major tax loses will cover any tax expenses going forward.~30 years of proved reserves.Starting share buyback next month.Expecting more than 100% upside potential for the share price.

The dividend stocks as a group has underperformed. There's nothing wrong with the fund. He would prefer technology stocks although they don't pay dividends.

Very cheap. Huge upside potential. CEO says he'll cut capex before he'll cut the dividend. Lovely yield of 9.26%. (Analysts’ price target is $12.17)

Ranger acquisition (Ranger Oil) misunderstood by the market.Believes deal is accretive on a per-share basis. CEO recently buying back stock himself.$70 oil would equate to $700 million in free cash flow.Bough 4mm shares last week.Has ownership in Clearwater play - the most economic play in North America.

Not as bullish on energy services (not as much drilling). Good job at paying down debt. Capital allocation will ensure less activity in drilling services.

Exposure to medium and heavy grade oil.Small cap that not many large investors care about.Dividend is 10% and is very strong (sustainable above $70).Older assets with abandonment liabilities.Good name for next 1-2 years if you want yield.

They have cut back and preserved capital. They do not have a debt issue. They are a gas play. If gas prices stay strong, they should do well. She anticipates their 4th quarter production being lower. She is not buying it today, but the future looks good.

They did a flow through share. The company is involved in oil and Nat. gas. He has a $1.20 target on it. If they can generate more cash flow they can get the debt down. He likes it. He may add on weakness.

He targets $6.40. Trade this and don't bet the farm. It now trades at $5.20. It moves up if oil prices do.

Just beat earnings and have increased production. Cheap valuation compared to peers. But it's getting more expensive heading into 2021. There's no growth here, but that goes with the entire oil patch. The real issue is will they survive. Their balance sheet is getting better, but still high for a blue-chip name. You'll be saved…

He stayed away because they went to the states to make acquisitions. He did not know why the Americans would not already take these assets. He stays away from it.

(A Top Pick Jun 03/22, Down 4%) Has since sold shares. Bearish on natural gas prices. Wants to focus on light to medium oil names.Better names out there to earn return on capital.

One of the largest fleets of generation 3 and 4 deeper coil tubing. Two businesses: coil tubing and tools. Both are being run efficiently. Margin pressure in the sector. Great little story that will be a big beneficiary of LNG drilling. No debt. 5-year bull market target of $3. 2023 will be a pivotal year…

NexGen vs. Fission He owns both Fission and NexGen. They're far from infrastructure in the Athabasca Basin and would be challenged if it wasn't for their deposits being large and of quality (and next to each other). They could get built as a pair. The Fission deposit is borderline-tier one deposit, whole Nexgen's is. The…

Does not own shares.Better opportunities in mid-cap oil weighted names.Quality company with assets in USA.Trading at discount to other names in sector (PrairieSky etc.)

Small player in energy space ($270 MM market cap).Believes dividend is sustainable (~11% yield).Not many large funds buying.China re-opening will increase oil price and lift share price.Good for retail investor.

A mico-cap that had some major issues. He would not look at this at all.

Have been increasing production aggressively. They just acquired a company to add to their production. This acquisition should help them move from small cap to mid cap. It has had a nice move up from there. Looks attractive. Waiting for a pull-back.

It is quite a small company. It is hugely volatile. There a lot of problems over the years with the pricing of data coming from India regarding a 10% stake in another company. They have too much debt. The price of the gas they sell has been negotiated. A tough name to predict.

Not a good investment with current management team. Other energy companies available with better opportunities.

Energy is very cyclical. This will lose money when the economy is on the downturn. That happened a few years ago. Unless you are optimistic about oil prices, don't build a position.

Does not believe dividend us sustainable given current strip price.Could take on debt to sustain dividend.Challenges ahead for the company.Depends on outlook for natural gas.

Has nat gas exposure--and he's bearish on all nat gas stocks. Market cap is way too low for investors to really care for in this sector.

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. STEP is down 35% this year, but up 59% in 52-weeks. Profit taking is probably part of the issue here. It did beat estimates in the 4Q, but the sector has been quite weak, and the company has recently seen two downgrades by brokers. EPS is supposed…

Owns some shares in holdings.Health and safety improvements will help the company.Highest payout in any Canadian company (dividends and share buybacks).Strong balance sheet. Expecting a 100% return on share price.

Depreciation is real. The more you pump, the faster the equipment wears down. Well service activity is much higher than 2-3 years ago. Rig counts are moving up, pricing is higher, and TCW will benefit. Sweet spot in the cycle right now, but he has concerns about length of cycle. Any near-term softening in nat…

(A Top Pick Nov 20/21, Up 69%) Liked it for assets. Ultimately sold to Whitecap.

The oil and gas companies were the best performers in 2022 and are now the worst performers. Tourmaline is the fifth largest natural gas producer in North America and probably the largest in Canada, with some of the best assets. It has a superstar CEO who has built other companies successfully and is buying stock…

There are aspects that will detract institutional ownership. There are some promotional aspects. The name is cheap and are paying down debt. It is not a name he is looking at. The quantitative and qualitative aspects need to match and for him it does not meet his requirements.

It's been stuck at these levels for a long time, but likes recent volumes. No problem buying this one.

Forestry space He owns no names. The stocks are okay but face trade disputes and an economic slowdown that will hit housing stocks. The stocks have been beaten up.

He sold all lumber stocks after the huge runup. But if he had to look at one, this would be it. Over $10 cash per share, with stock at $24, which means over 40% of company value is net cash. Lots of optionality. Intriguing.

Has an old mine outside of Los Angeles that was run in the 1930s. Closed down during the Second World War and they are doing open pit mining in the area. Has some issues, but at these gold prices, it will probably start to work again. Under followed. Highly speculative.

The company has suspended its dividend. They operate diamond mines in South Africa. They are looking into underground, from open pit. The cost is more expensive than thought. The price of diamonds has been reduced, though retail prices won’t change.

Agnico-Eagle (AEM-T) came in a while ago and made a 9.9% stake in this company. The stock went up, but it really hasn’t done much since then. Then Barrick (ABX-T) came in and said they really liked the deposit and wanted to do a joint venture. This is a much better approach that is better…

Likes the managers, but concerned with the topography. A decent-sized gold project. A good speculation.

(Top Pick Mar 8/11, Down 65.85%)

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Growth has been good and the balance sheet is decent. The royalty properties are solid. They have some potential to grow dividends. Valuation is high at 29x earnings for a small company. Management has done a good job and the sector remains good. Unlock Premium - Try 5i…

Wallbridge Mining to buy Balmoral It depends on your timeframe--some will take the premium in Balmoral and grab the profit. He expects in two years that the deal will benefit shareholders with lower costs. The Abitibi is a great gold district. If he owned this, he'd hang onto it.

Just completed an expansion. A bit more debt leveraged. Fortunes rise and fall with copper, especially with a recession scenario. China's problems aren't helping. Should be back to $3 in next 3-6 months, $4 in a year. Operational issues in Q1. Second half should improve. Sit tight. You could dip your toe in Q4.

This now has a project in Mongolia which has epithermal veins, which he loves. When you do find them and they carry great grades, it can grow really fast. This has a 50 g/meter width quite prominent with something like 16% which gets him excited. Still very early stage.

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. The sector and in particular the company has shown good momentum. Good cash flow off-sets their stretched balance sheet. Cheap on valuation. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

Lumber went on a moon shot in the first couple of months of Covid. Housing starts are rolling over. As lumber goes, so goes the stock. Buy when it's at a fraction of book value and the chart's collapsed. Not timely.

“Jumps and Steps” – quite common in junior companies. Each jump is a news item. As it gets closer to production, it will keep on doing this. Pullbacks are due to profit taking. Must stay above the $0.30 level, otherwise it may be bad news.

Transformed company from 4-5 years ago. Not a good investment. Looking elsewhere. 96% retail ownership implies speculative asset. Tough business to operate in (mining). Consistently losing money.

This is on his watch list. He is not familiar with their fundamentals. Today's earnings release will help define their future.

(A Top Pick Jan 26/23, Down 7.8%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O’Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with AX.UN has triggered its stop at $8.80.  To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time.  

Question was on comparing Aecon to Bird. They have good yields of 5%. Backlogs are not as meaningful in this environment. Construction costs are up and there are still supply chain issues. Bird is in a better situation since it has fewer fixed costs.

Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O’Reilly Owing Canadian chartered banks during periods of market uncertainty is always a good strategy.  It currently trades at 1.5x book and under 10x earnings.  Cash reserves are growing as the company retires debt.  We recommend placing a stop-loss at $100, looking to achieve $143.50 — upside potential over 20%.  Yield…

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Strategy of US expansion is risky, but we prefer it to staying in Canada. CEO is young, but we think the Board knows its strategy well. Recent acquisition may not work out, but we would rather the company try to move forward than simply bleed out with…

It has really transformed over the last ten years. It is attractively valued but it will be aggressive in spending that excess capital. You may not see that value-unlocking potential. He would look for more of a stable cash flow. He is not sure how the mine developments will pan work out.

Dividend probably safe. Prefers the diversification with POW. Nothing against it, but he'd buy SLF and MFC ahead of this one. Fairly well managed and well capitalized. Good yield.

They own U.S. hotels, a high-risk, high-reward stock. He's bearish on hotels, which is struggling with labour costs and keeping labour. HOT.UN has done a good job restoring vacancies, in the low-70s, though their peak was in the 80s. However, they've made up the balance on their hotel rates. Their balance sheet is slightly higher,…

(A Top Pick Nov 13/20, Up 33%) Has started buying back shares and paying dividends. Financials should do well as the yield curve steepens. Valuation is not as compelling as before. Middle of the pack. Has moved to US banks and non-financial banks in Canada.

(A Top Pick Dec 04/19, Up 13%) He'd buy it again. Nice value stock. Nice yield. Trading at discount to book. Would benefit from rising interest rates, which he expects. Cheaper than all the banks.

He's bearish on office REITs, given work-from-home. SOT operates in secondary markets, which can be a good business, but is capital intensive. SOT is doing a fine job, but offices face double-digit vacancies. Money needs to be spend on improving spaces, less to shareholders.

Blockchain miner. Blockchain is like the internet in 1995-96. Once it gets going, you can't stop it. Technology moving forward is diversifying. Investors can participate in the building of the network. $20 target. No dividend. (Analysts’ price target is $22.99)

(A Top Pick Feb 24/16. Down 43.33%.) This was a big disappointment. They changed their focus on their business plan. He got stopped out. They were basically doing loans to doctors, but have now changed and is doing software service. The market didn’t like that.

Small cap Canadian REIT with 50% assets in industrial real estate. Growing is tough given economic cycle. Looking into secondary markets. Better opportunities elsewhere.

Mackenzie Investment Group is much more dynamic, much bigger. Better play.

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Record quarters during COVID. Entry into debt valuation interesting. Greater SaaS revenues support better margins. Premium valuation means less room for error. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

Still likes it. Very discounted with what's happening in the financial world, especially in the US. An opportunity for long-term investors, around 8x earnings, yield 5.9%. 

Blackstone took over Dream Global, and DRM got a large cheque out of it in their holdings and asset management contract. They've since done a large issuer bid that that the biggest shareholder, the CEO, tendered into below NAV. So, the NAV has grown. DRM will benefit from lower interest rates. (Analysts’ price target is…

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. FFH in the past focused on growing book value per share and paying minimal dividends.The company compounded book value per share at around 15% on average, used to be considered as a “Canadian version” of  BRK.B. However, in the last ten years, performance has not been…

Are sensitive to market flows. Part of the Power Financial Group; she owns Power shares, the parent company. Prefers Power Corp. for its dividend.

Smaller cap company. The financial technology was originally launched as a lender. Now it is in bitcoin and wallets. Still no earnings. Challenge is that it trades 28x EBITDA, no return of equity, no cashflow. Has had good price momentum in the past but too volatile.

(A Top Pick Feb 16/16. Up 6.28%.) This has some creative stuff and he had been looking for bond portfolios that are actively managed and a little bit outside the normal ETF’s. He is still buying some of this.

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Higher rates can be good for the financial sector. The main concern is whether rates push us into recession. Certainly a possibility, but right now the economy is much stronger than most expected, and thus banks should be OK for a while. At some point, the narrative is…

HPB Energy Bull+ ETF. Immediate leverage to oil price moves. If you have a very good near-term bet that you want to make on oil this would be the way to go but if you are looking for an investment in the oil patch that has a long-term investment implications, then you should go to…

In his income portfolio. He's cautious on Canadian energy, as the politics are not agreeable to energy right now, but he still wants to participate. Biggest 20 energy companies in the world. Good way to play in a diversified way with one holding.

HBP S&P 500 Bull (HSU-T) or BMO Equal Weight US Banks Hedged To CDN$ (ZUB-T)? These are 2 completely different things. A lot of people are negative on Bull+ and Bear+ ETFs but he thinks there is a place for these things but he doesn’t think it is here. Thinks it is going to be…

This is a call on oil. He is not going to want to buy a lot of oil. This is the 15 largest companies and they write covered calls. You will collect much higher premiums for the calls. But he would be cautious of this one.

Big runup, and then a sideways consolidation. Easy money's been made in energy. Oil likely to move lower and be in a sideways, choppy trading range. For the bulk of this year, and into 2024, energy stocks will go sideways and be relative underperformers. For example, if market's up 10%, energy might be up 8-9%.…

If you're looking at a global ETF, remember that 60% of it's going to be US. For an Asian ETF, 52% is going to be Japan. People want diversification. To get decent global exposure, you're going to need to pick up a couple of ETFs, as just one can't do it all. One is XIN,…

(A Top Pick August 8/17, Up 8%) This holds what’s left over from the XIU 60. Wanted to get into some smaller stuff to get better diversification, and focus on this rather than the broader-based indices.

It's the US small caps index. They do better in times of declining yields and higher growth. This is good if you want to hunker down and hedge the US dollar. Small caps are beat up, but he predicts a rotation in the coming year to favour small caps. XSU is decent, but he prefers…

He would recommend taking a tax loss on this and buying into his energy fund. His fund has fewer names and a larger average market cap. The ETF is passive -- he prefers active management.

If a long term investor, a good buy. Not a good product for day traders. Don't worry about liquidity. Always a buyer for product.

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. No longer backed by Aurora. Multiple attempts to redesign stores. Multiple products sold at steep discounts. Deteriorating margins.

DOL vs. ATD Both are timely, great secular growers. If he really had to choose, he'd pick ATD because of the more attractive valuation of 15-16x. DOL is in the mid-high 20s multiple, but it's justifiable because it has a faster organic growth rate. ATD has a more under-levered balance sheet, a capable serial acquirer.…

It held up well during the downturn and is therefore resilient. It has rallied and maintained at these higher levels. The consumer goods sector and leisure products are doing well.

(A Top Pick Dec 15/22, Up 4.2%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O’Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with LNR has triggered its stop at $67.  To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time.  This will result in a net investment gain of 12%, when combined with our previous recommendation to cover half the position.…

It is unbelievable where this stock is trading at. Acquisitions this year are worth less than half what they paid for them. It was trading at less than half what it was worth. They are trading below the amount of cash they have. It shocks him how far it continues to go down.

It was hit hard during the pandemic when restaurants were closed, but are recovering strongly. Recently, have faced higher freight and material costs. Despite those, margins are healthy. Consumers are returning to bars, restaurants and airports. He expects better results in coming quarters. 

(A Top Pick Jun 18/18, Up 1%) Still likes it. It's well-run. They're growing their brands and they have a big opportunity to get into cannabis beverages which will be legal in Canada in October 2019. BRB is well-positioned for this and this market could be very large.

Too many good shows on competing streaming services. Kids don't go to a movie every Friday the way he used to. Doesn't know what the catalyst is. Dividend gone. Balance sheet probably not in good shape, pandemic did lots of damage. All depends on quality of movies. Media companies all losing money. No growth tailwinds…

In general terms still on a downtrend. Bearish big picture. Could get back into the 20 dollars.

Pleasantly surprised with the business fundamentals. Aspects of their business are growing. Very undemanding valuation. Continue to hold. It's on his watch list.

(A Top Pick Jan 20/22, Down 27%) Expects them to sell a division so they become a pure play in intelligent transportation systems only like e-toll lanes. Now have an $800 million backlog, because governments need more ways to collect money from drivers to pay for highways. Should fetch $1 per share once that division…

Provides a service very similar to Alphabet (GOOGL-Q), which is provided for free. When your competitor is providing your services free, it is tough to be competitive.

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. As had a good quarter with beating estimates and raising results. Continues to see demand from the cloud and semiconductor industries. Revenues rose 27% and EPS also beat. They raised revenue outlook from $6.37B to $6.5B. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

(A Top Pick Oct 07/20, Down 7%) Not long after making the recommendation the stock benefited from a lot of ETF buying. They exited on the strong buying on a much higher gain. Since then, the ETF buying has evaporated and the stock price has come back down.

Just announced a discovery in Columbia. Flow tested over 2000 barrels per day. This well could produce up to 5000 when brought into production. A very well distributed stock so it might not jump too fast. Company could get taken out.

A frustrating position. Imaging clinics in the US. Performing well and acquiring clinics. Higher margins than peers. Positive news has come out, so the rest of the year should be better, closing the gap in the valuation. Generating free cashflow and paying down debt. Alzheimer's drug will push organic demand for scans.

(A Top Pick Dec 20/18, Down 40%) It had a good turn in January. Beaten down stocks can have a nice bounce in January.

He's looking at the space, which is attractive. Off the highs. Business is materially tougher, but we need it. Regulatory issues and scrutiny on EXE. Labour situation also difficult. Likes the price, but wants to see more on the business fundamentals.

They hit a financing crisis and needed cash. So, they issued 20 billion share at 1.5 cents per share. A massive dilution that destroyed the shareholder base. Avoid.

Aerospace parts and manufacturing. Assets mainly out West. Generates hundreds of millions of dollars in free cashflow every year. At a nice inflection point, where valuation doesn't fully reflect demonstrated free cashflow conversion from franchises. Really nice yield of 5.21%. (Analysts’ price target is $61.18)

(A Top Pick Jan 13/22, Up 5%) Beat last quarter guidance.Great backlog of projects.Current share price cheap.Does not think industrial activity will slow too much.Great name to get exposure to large section of the economy.China re-opening a tailwind. 

Longer-term downtrend, the opposite of what the market's a doing in a negative way. It's a big sign that something is not moving in the right direction. Be cautious.

It formed a nice base. It has a strong yield. It is coming out the last few days. We are getting close to a break out.

He bought it as a value play with sum of the parts worth more than it was trading at. They are trying to sell some of the parts. Thinks they will sell all the parts and distribute the cash. $4-$5 breakup value. It is taking longer than he thought to break it up.