This week’s new 52-week lows… (Dec 12-18)
There’s been quite a lot of stocks falling below their 52-week low which reflects the state of the market.
Here’s this week’s 52-week low stocks.
The real story with AAV is Entropy, which is a new carbon capture division they created. They have had some positive field trials. They have created a liquid that can extract CO2 more effectively and cheaper than before. You are also getting natural gas. In the service business, there is little exclusivity for techniques. Would…
Debt concerns? BXE took bankruptcy protection when debt became too much. There is no equity value in it any longer. Companies that have debt that matures in 2020 or 2021 will have issues. He sees no issues with BIR or TVE on this topic. The new Federal relief program for large companies may be difficult…
It is a liquids rich player with very high liquids content. The problem is that the market cap is below the radar, and the debt is high. It was a $4 plus stock when we had decent gas prices. They are looking to bring their debt down. He thinks the company will survive. They've been…
HSE-T + CVE-T: Stay after the merger? He does not own either one. He understands the merger makes sense. There are a lot of cost savings that can be found. He prefers CNQ-T, PXT-T and one of his Top Picks today. He prefers these to HSE-T. If the sector bounces back you could get an…
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly MTL provides trucking and logistics services in Canada and the US. As the economy continues to reopen in North America, the company will benefit from continued demand for its expertise. Recently reported earnings of $0.21 beat analyst expectations of $0.19 for the quarter. It is trading a good value here…
Natural gas? The outlook for natural gas has improved as associated production has impacted by shut in oil production. He is not fond of PEY as they have covenant violations (that should be worked out). He has others he prefers.
Pengrowth (PGF-T) and Perpetual (PMT-T)? Had some challenges with their balance sheet over the last couple of years with the collapse in oil prices. This one would be a little riskier. If you really see a big jump in commodity prices, this probably has a lot more upside than Pengrowth (PGF-T).
Has been an unfortunate story. Was a leading player in shale gas in Quebec a number of years. The government came out against it. Has some western Canadian production that has cash flow. Balance sheet is relatively clean. Started talking about carbon capture and storage. There is some insider buying recently.
Underperformed. A lot of people owned it for the yield, paying more than they should. Once they cut the dividend, many people exited. Might be an opportunity as an international play. Leveraged to oil price.
The company is very cheap in terms of price to book. Their book value was $4 at the end of June. However, they have a debt problem: $211 million of debt compared to an equity value of $369 million. He sees this as a takeover candidate especially now because he is seeing consolidation in the…
(A Top Pick Aug 13/18, Down 61%) They disenfranchised the Canadian shareholders. He sold out sooner before the de listing, so did not do as badly, nor did his subscribers. He disagrees with their move.
One of the best in the sector in Canada. On a medium- to long-term basis, really likes nat gas. Much more sustainable, as they produce the greenest nat gas than peers. All kinds of free cashflow at these prices. Might see a pullback in the next 6 months, providing a buying opportunity. If you don't…
Higher debt leverage, high operating costs. SU, CNQ or CVE have much more sustainable, quality profits. If oil goes higher, you'll make more money with this one. But understand that it's a riskier bet. If things go down, this type of stock will really crater.
The dividend stocks as a group has underperformed. There's nothing wrong with the fund. He would prefer technology stocks although they don't pay dividends.
Can see a 40% upside here. Goal is to pay down debt and stream out the free cashflow. The inventory depth of the asset, it is trading at 18% free cashflow. Future dividend is possible. Everything looks good in the sector, so you must chose the best option.
Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Has had a huge run with the sector. If oil goes higher, investors may not care about its debt levels. Leveraged so it will do better in a rally since risk gets reduced with higher cash flow. The stock will likely do extremely well if…
CFW vs. TCW Issue has been the balance sheet. Lots of debt. Concerns about solvency. Upswing in the sector is helping them. Whereas TCW has a clean balance sheet with rising fundamentals that's all going to equity holders. TCW is a safer blue chip.
Owns 8% of the company and is the second largest holder right now. Not the most exciting holdings but they are very profitable and gives good cashflow. Well over 10 years of development drilling. 1.9x EV to 22 cashflow and 39% free cashflow yield. Expects them to initiate a healthy dividend next year. Net zero…
They have cut back and preserved capital. They do not have a debt issue. They are a gas play. If gas prices stay strong, they should do well. She anticipates their 4th quarter production being lower. She is not buying it today, but the future looks good.
They did a flow through share. The company is involved in oil and Nat. gas. He has a $1.20 target on it. If they can generate more cash flow they can get the debt down. He likes it. He may add on weakness.
It is a stock that is very cheap. With high energy prices, that has lifted all of these companies. It was as low as 10% of its book value. His fair market value has been going literally straight up. He would stay with it. He recommended it as a speculative buy a while ago as…
Just beat earnings and have increased production. Cheap valuation compared to peers. But it's getting more expensive heading into 2021. There's no growth here, but that goes with the entire oil patch. The real issue is will they survive. Their balance sheet is getting better, but still high for a blue-chip name. You'll be saved…
He stayed away because they went to the states to make acquisitions. He did not know why the Americans would not already take these assets. He stays away from it.
Trading at 2.2x enterprise value to cashflow, which is cheaper than earlier this year. Q1 of next year should see a material share buyback. Trading at a 30% free cashflow yield. The low valuation will be rerated. Could trade at a 5x multiple, which would be a 153% upside. (Analysts’ price target is $12.19)
An oil and gas drilling company in North America. Oil and gas services companies have additional leverage on the oil markets which already have significant volatility. If we get into the positive sweet spot it can raise prices and make a lot of money, but we are not there yet. They have been through multiple…
NexGen vs. Fission He owns both Fission and NexGen. They're far from infrastructure in the Athabasca Basin and would be challenged if it wasn't for their deposits being large and of quality (and next to each other). They could get built as a pair. The Fission deposit is borderline-tier one deposit, whole Nexgen's is. The…
It had a roller coaster ride over the last five years but is running on all cylinders right now. They would benefit immensely from rising commodity prices such as energy. They will be able to increase dividends.
Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. A strong management team should be able to grow a company faster and thus the stock will get expensive. GXE shares were $1.01 in June so a price target of $1.10 is not unreasonable. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
Have been increasing production aggressively. They just acquired a company to add to their production. This acquisition should help them move from small cap to mid cap. It has had a nice move up from there. Looks attractive. Waiting for a pull-back.
It is quite a small company. It is hugely volatile. There a lot of problems over the years with the pricing of data coming from India regarding a 10% stake in another company. They have too much debt. The price of the gas they sell has been negotiated. A tough name to predict.
(A Top Pick Oct 22/18, Down 88%) He sold at $3.22, taking a big loss. They have a lot of worries. They are looking to sell the company. They might just liquidate the company, but clean up could be very expensive. He does not like stock consolidations and used that as a trigger to get…
We are on a different cycle than in the past. The business model has shifted which is now positive for oil macro. Oil production growth is no longer elastic to rising oil prices. They are now taking free cashflow and companies are now buying back stocks. There is an opportunity for a rerate. Owned it…
In tough shape. They made the wrong bet on natural gas. Sell it and buy elsewhere. But it will pay off over five years.
Has nat gas exposure--and he's bearish on all nat gas stocks. Market cap is way too low for investors to really care for in this sector.
70% fracking and then they have coil tubing. They are pretty cheap. They are doing reasonably well. It is really, really cheap. The two biggest shareholders are funds so liquidity is an issue Buy on weakness; he would have a target of $5.
He owns some of the peers. He has not gotten back into the story because of previous operational problems. He would add it now if he wanted to add more into the oil sector. They are doing more on clean technologies now. It is a good trade idea. He is not sure he would sell…
TCW vs. CFW Issue for CFW has been the balance sheet. Lots of debt. Concerns about solvency. Upswing in the sector is helping them. Whereas TCW has a clean balance sheet with rising fundamentals that's all going to equity holders. TCW is a safer blue chip.
(A Top Pick Sep 18/20, Up 107%) Was taken over. Liked it for the team, asset and valuation. Was sad to see it go. There were motivated sellers. Sold to Whitecap.
(A Top Pick Dec 29/20, Up 170%) They are great operators. The balance sheet is in great shape. They did smart acquisitions. Everyone is starting to discover this name. It is still a decent valuation.
There are aspects that will detract institutional ownership. There are some promotional aspects. The name is cheap and are paying down debt. It is not a name he is looking at. The quantitative and qualitative aspects need to match and for him it does not meet his requirements.
🛢 Basic Materials
It's been stuck at these levels for a long time, but likes recent volumes. No problem buying this one.
Forestry space He owns no names. The stocks are okay but face trade disputes and an economic slowdown that will hit housing stocks. The stocks have been beaten up.
(A Top Pick Jul 02/21, Down 3%) A play over the next year. If you look at housing demand in US and Canada over the next 5 years, there will be increasing demand for lumber. Trading at only 2x this year's earnings. Earnings for 2022 will be solid.
Has an old mine outside of Los Angeles that was run in the 1930s. Closed down during the Second World War and they are doing open pit mining in the area. Has some issues, but at these gold prices, it will probably start to work again. Under followed. Highly speculative.
The company has suspended its dividend. They operate diamond mines in South Africa. They are looking into underground, from open pit. The cost is more expensive than thought. The price of diamonds has been reduced, though retail prices won’t change.
Agnico-Eagle (AEM-T) came in a while ago and made a 9.9% stake in this company. The stock went up, but it really hasn’t done much since then. Then Barrick (ABX-T) came in and said they really liked the deposit and wanted to do a joint venture. This is a much better approach that is better…
Likes the managers, but concerned with the topography. A decent-sized gold project. A good speculation.
Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Growth has been good and the balance sheet is decent. The royalty properties are solid. They have some potential to grow dividends. Valuation is high at 29x earnings for a small company. Management has done a good job and the sector remains good. Unlock Premium - Try 5i…
Wallbridge Mining to buy Balmoral It depends on your timeframe--some will take the premium in Balmoral and grab the profit. He expects in two years that the deal will benefit shareholders with lower costs. The Abitibi is a great gold district. If he owned this, he'd hang onto it.
Highly leveraged to the copper price, and is a major producer. Has a great outlook. They are reducing costs to improve efficiency. Debt is an issue, but the high copper price solves this and enhances margins. It's up 500% in the past year. Too much beta for him though, but this is fine if you…
This now has a project in Mongolia which has epithermal veins, which he loves. When you do find them and they carry great grades, it can grow really fast. This has a 50 g/meter width quite prominent with something like 16% which gets him excited. Still very early stage.
Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. The sector and in particular the company has shown good momentum. Good cash flow off-sets their stretched balance sheet. Cheap on valuation. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
See his comments on Domain. It's a commodity producer, and he doesn't buy price-takers. He's very bearish on lumber prices; we won't be buying lumber to build decks again (after the 2020 lockdowns).
“Jumps and Steps” – quite common in junior companies. Each jump is a news item. As it gets closer to production, it will keep on doing this. Pullbacks are due to profit taking. Must stay above the $0.30 level, otherwise it may be bad news.
Getting to the right theme is the most important thing. Has a good basket of assets. Recently pulled back. It's a small cap, so you have to be careful. But it should continue to participate as long as base materials continue to improve.
This is on his watch list. He is not familiar with their fundamentals. Today's earnings release will help define their future.
It was a diversified REIT in the US and Canada and then there was board transition an activist shareholder has taken control to sell off the assets and reinvest the capital into other publicly traded REITs. He questions this business strategy. Choose the REITs they invested in for yourselves.
(A Top Pick Dec 24/20, Up 28.8%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with BDT has achieved its objective at $10. To be disciplined, we recommend covering half the position at this time and trailing up the stop (from $6.50) to $8.25. If triggered this would all but guarantee a net investment return…
(A Top Pick May 25/21, Up 107%) They came off a depressed environment, but held good momentum entering the summer. Canada will enjoy good growth into 2022. Solid. In March 2020, you did not want to sell banks and had to look forward to the recover. If you stayed with the banks including BMO, it…
Really likes the investment management sector. It should be pretty good business in a time of a decent market and reflation. When a group gets into gear, you want to look at the leaders.
It broke a down trend. It has pretty weak upside. The recent level of highs has not been taken out. It is struggling.
They've made a big push into the U.S. retirement services business, basically a record-keeping market. It's a very defenisive stock, trades at a cheap 10x earnings and pays a 4.5% dividend. GWO will see earnings growth. Pays a 4% dividend. (Analysts’ price target is $40.00)
Hotels are typically the first sector to go down in a downturn and the first to come out. Today there is zero visibility, however. He would move on from this one.
A Quebec based financial services, insurance, financial advice and brokerage. They have been caught up in the brought sell-off in financial stocks. Interest rates being low has hurt them. However, he sees interest rates rising as the economy improves. Top 3% on valuation, 8x PE, 4x cashflow and 1x book value. It is cheap with…
(A Top Pick Dec 04/19, Up 13%) He'd buy it again. Nice value stock. Nice yield. Trading at discount to book. Would benefit from rising interest rates, which he expects. Cheaper than all the banks.
He is not bull on the office space. They have been growing in sub-markets he is not keen on. 37% is in Atlantic Canada and he is not keen on their holdings.
Hut-8 is another Canadian Bitcoin miner headquarted in Toronto, though it trades on the TSX. Daily volumes average 2.5 million, but swing wildly. Over 12 months, Bitfarms outperforms HUT-T 753% vs 858%, but the stocks have run in parallel the past month. Neither stock pays a dividend (no surprise). HUT's EPS in -0.22 while BITF's…
(A Top Pick Feb 24/16. Down 43.33%.) This was a big disappointment. They changed their focus on their business plan. He got stopped out. They were basically doing loans to doctors, but have now changed and is doing software service. The market didn’t like that.
Small and obscure and in commercial real estate that he doesn't like. This will suffer if there's a downturn. This is also small-cap; better to buy a larger-cap REIT.
Stock's been very cheap for a long time. Underowned. Climbing the wall of worry. Don't buy now, as it's whippy. Dividend is safe. Good place to be if you like asset management. Valuations are really good, with probably more to go.
He owns this one and likes the management team. There seems to be a consistent buyer of this stock. They have high margins. It is not cheap at these levels. There are not too many ways to play technology from a real estate perspective. They have a strong position on pricing data in the real…
(A Top Pick Dec 29/20, Up 35%) The banks had not performed at that point last year. They had over-reserved at the beginning of the pandemic.
Blackstone took over Dream Global, and DRM got a large cheque out of it in their holdings and asset management contract. They've since done a large issuer bid that that the biggest shareholder, the CEO, tendered into below NAV. So, the NAV has grown. DRM will benefit from lower interest rates. (Analysts’ price target is…
Prem Watsa engages in market timing, unlike Warren Buffett. Fairfax is a black box as to what it owns. Challenging business. Stuck in the mud for a while. If you want too look at good capital allocators in the P&C business, look at BRK.B, which he owns.
Really likes the investment management sector. It should be pretty good business in a time of a decent market and reflation. When a group gets into gear, you want to look at the leaders.
Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Interesting fintech company. Trades at 7x sales. Sales growth is good but need to see positive cash flow. Has exposure to crypto and moves with it. Has made some acquisitions with a recent on in investment dealing. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
(A Top Pick Feb 16/16. Up 6.28%.) This has some creative stuff and he had been looking for bond portfolios that are actively managed and a little bit outside the normal ETF’s. He is still buying some of this.
You have credit risk for mortgages. Banks are well provisioned for credit losses, though these might be loosened shortly. The yield curve is steepening so in the short run, banks are more profitable. It's hard to say how much is priced in. Not early but if the yield curve remains steep, banks will do well…
HPB Energy Bull+ ETF. Immediate leverage to oil price moves. If you have a very good near-term bet that you want to make on oil this would be the way to go but if you are looking for an investment in the oil patch that has a long-term investment implications, then you should go to…
For the next year or two, energy will probably outperform. The reflation trade will buoy energy. Dips will be good occasions. Further than 5 years and the sector is less desirable. A pure play in large cap energy is probably a better way to go.
HBP S&P 500 Bull (HSU-T) or BMO Equal Weight US Banks Hedged To CDN$ (ZUB-T)? These are 2 completely different things. A lot of people are negative on Bull+ and Bear+ ETFs but he thinks there is a place for these things but he doesn’t think it is here. Thinks it is going to be…
This is a call on oil. He is not going to want to buy a lot of oil. This is the 15 largest companies and they write covered calls. You will collect much higher premiums for the calls. But he would be cautious of this one.
Average adviser clients would have 5-20% allocation in energy. It is cyclical and volatile. It could go down. Wouldn't recommend holding more than 20% weighting in the sector. Current energy weighting on the TSX is 12%.
Europe, Australia, and Far East so has been affected by Brexit. A good ETF but hasn't performed well. Could buy ZWE, which is more European based. Would like to see more U.S. exposure.
(A Top Pick August 8/17, Up 8%) This holds what’s left over from the XIU 60. Wanted to get into some smaller stuff to get better diversification, and focus on this rather than the broader-based indices.
It's the US small caps index. They do better in times of declining yields and higher growth. This is good if you want to hunker down and hedge the US dollar. Small caps are beat up, but he predicts a rotation in the coming year to favour small caps. XSU is decent, but he prefers…
He would recommend taking a tax loss on this and buying into his energy fund. His fund has fewer names and a larger average market cap. The ETF is passive -- he prefers active management.
In general, US financials have had trouble tracking the S&P. He's underweight financials. Net interest margins, loan losses, economic uncertainty. Had moved up, but now back down.
Alcanna (CLIQ-T) TSE
Over time it will come back. They have a strong position in liquor retailing and have moved into Cannabis. They are clearly going to be a survivor. They are going to be able to consolidate.
A great company. Owned it in the past. Sold it with the notion that the windfall from last year was not going to return. It was deemed an essential retailer when everything was closed. Same store sales comparisons are struggling due to last year. Has checked back a little. A slow and steady grower in…
BRP INC (DOO-T) TSE
Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. There is no news to account for the weakness. The stock rose last week and has essentially returned to those levels. Estimates have risen, which pushes expectations to beat on earnings. The company has beaten estimates 8 quarters in a row. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
Like his MG-T comment today, but the valuation is not quite as attractive. He is not sure about the drive-train exposure. He is fine with the overall group however.
It is unbelievable where this stock is trading at. Acquisitions this year are worth less than half what they paid for them. It was trading at less than half what it was worth. They are trading below the amount of cash they have. It shocks him how far it continues to go down.
This is a real quality company, really well managed, great cash flow. This is a great time to buy it. It has not been this cheap in eight to ten years. The retail channels have done well although restaurant sales have not. It is recovering with restaurants reopening.
(A Top Pick Jun 18/18, Up 1%) Still likes it. It's well-run. They're growing their brands and they have a big opportunity to get into cannabis beverages which will be legal in Canada in October 2019. BRB is well-positioned for this and this market could be very large.
People own this for the dividend, and pre-Covid this company was innovative with preferred seating and cafes, and programming opera and sports. But this is a difficult environment now; he doesn't see people returning to cinemas given social distancing. Also, the studios are releasing films on streaming. True, a lot of blockbusters will be released,…
Pleasantly surprised with the business fundamentals. Aspects of their business are growing. Very undemanding valuation. Continue to hold. It's on his watch list.
Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Their Q3 report was very positive and beat estimates. The revenue forecast is 40% compared to last year. The EBITDA forecast is nearly 75% of 2019 levels. The stock should start being more noticed. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
Provides a service very similar to Alphabet (GOOGL-Q), which is provided for free. When your competitor is providing your services free, it is tough to be competitive.
A contract manufacturer for electronics, communications, and storage. The move to the cloud has benefited them. The stock has struggled for a while but it is too cheap to ignore right now. Top 10% on valuation. 0.6x book value, 4.3x enterprise to EBITA, and 4x cashflow. A cashflow machine with no concerns on the balance…
The space sector is promising. Still owns this and bought more with the weakness. With digital globe acquisition, they have married the space area well. Low level orbit satellite structure is promising. There are companies that need their data. Best positioned to combine data and put it in a good format. The valuation is still…
Just announced a discovery in Columbia. Flow tested over 2000 barrels per day. This well could produce up to 5000 when brought into production. A very well distributed stock so it might not jump too fast. Company could get taken out.
A frustrating position. Imaging clinics in the US. Performing well and acquiring clinics. Higher margins than peers. Positive news has come out, so the rest of the year should be better, closing the gap in the valuation. Generating free cashflow and paying down debt. Alzheimer's drug will push organic demand for scans.
(A Top Pick Dec 20/18, Down 40%) It had a good turn in January. Beaten down stocks can have a nice bounce in January.
There's always something that stops him from entering the seniors space in REITs: labour, regulator issues, though again demographics are a positive. That isn't a good enough, though. How will governments with huge debts supplement the entire seniors home space? However, EXE is cheap. This space is too volatile.
They hit a financing crisis and needed cash. So, they issued 20 billion share at 1.5 cents per share. A massive dilution that destroyed the shareholder base. Avoid.
Does not think there is a risk of a dividend cut. Assets being held include aviation in remote northern communities, industrial businesses and they keep adding to it. It is a junior, private equity arm. An acquisitive player. Yield is competitive and it should grow. Good company, good management team with good operating strategy.
Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. The stock took a hit from political moves in Chile. Overall it is a good grower and more growth is expected over the next two years. Currently trading at 18x earnings. Metals and mining stocks have been doing well recently. It is worth holding at…
Canada's largest printing and packaging operation. EPS was .51 cents. A bit of a disappointment. They benefitted from the emergency wage subsidy. Right now, they are facing difficult comparison to last year, especially with currency conversion with the Canadian dollar coming back to strength. Yields 4%. Has M&A optionality. Has re-rating potential as their packaging…
It formed a nice base. It has a strong yield. It is coming out the last few days. We are getting close to a break out.
He bought it as a value play with sum of the parts worth more than it was trading at. They are trying to sell some of the parts. Thinks they will sell all the parts and distribute the cash. $4-$5 breakup value. It is taking longer than he thought to break it up.
Use this list wisely to identify buying opportunities.
Happy trading !!!