There’s been quite a lot of stocks falling below their 52-week low which reflects the state of the market.
Here’s this week’s 52-week low stocks.
Gas vs oil? As there is less oil production, associated natural gas production is falling. He owns BIR and was buying yesterday. AAV has performed well relative to other gas producers. He took profits on AAV recently and moved it into oil producers. BIR is trading at 2 times EV, but cuts its dividend by…
Debt concerns? BXE took bankruptcy protection when debt became too much. There is no equity value in it any longer. Companies that have debt that matures in 2020 or 2021 will have issues. He sees no issues with BIR or TVE on this topic. The new Federal relief program for large companies may be difficult…
It is a liquids rich player with very high liquids content. The problem is that the market cap is below the radar, and the debt is high. It was a $4 plus stock when we had decent gas prices. They are looking to bring their debt down. He thinks the company will survive. They've been…
They got out of upstream operations and has struggled since then. He's not bullish about energy, and HSE will struggle. But HSE will rise nicely when oil prices rise. Not his favourite oil stock or sector.
Convertible bonds with a 5.75% coupon They own a great base of real estate. The debt issue is a small piece. The bond is well-covered. MTL.DV-T. You get a 6-year option on the stock within the bond, with a $14 convert price. If oil recovers, these bonds will convert into equity. Until then, collect then.…
Natural gas? The outlook for natural gas has improved as associated production has impacted by shut in oil production. He is not fond of PEY as they have covenant violations (that should be worked out). He has others he prefers.
Pengrowth (PGF-T) and Perpetual (PMT-T)? Had some challenges with their balance sheet over the last couple of years with the collapse in oil prices. This one would be a little riskier. If you really see a big jump in commodity prices, this probably has a lot more upside than Pengrowth (PGF-T).
Quebec is moving forward. They are having fabulous wells. They have higher net backs because of the lack of need for transportation. On a little bit of weakness the stock is one to keep an eye on.
A good operator with fine internationally diversification. They cut their high dividend, but had to and won't return to that level. We live in a different world with lower oil prices and demand. VET's balance sheet is okay and this will survive. That said, he prefers Tourmaline Oil which has more cash.
The company is very cheap in terms of price to book. Their book value was $4 at the end of June. However, they have a debt problem: $211 million of debt compared to an equity value of $369 million. He sees this as a takeover candidate especially now because he is seeing consolidation in the…
(A Top Pick Aug 13/18, Down 61%) They disenfranchised the Canadian shareholders. He sold out sooner before the de listing, so did not do as badly, nor did his subscribers. He disagrees with their move.
It has a high quality asset base. Historically, it traded at a massive premium. Current natural gas and oil prices, it is trading at a 10% free cashflow yield. Because the stocks are beaten down, you can get a pretty good deal if you believe oil prices will strengthen.
They pushed their debt to come to term in 2022. An ultra-high torque and leverage stock. If there is an oil shortage and oil price rises to $60, it can be a great play.
The dividend stocks as a group has underperformed. There's nothing wrong with the fund. He would prefer technology stocks although they don't pay dividends.
He is bullish on natural gas with less swamping of the market from the US. Global demand is improving for LNG. It is his small cap pick. They are aggregating free cash to pay all debt and then pay dividends.
There is debt load and the primary asset is not operated in Eagleford. The differentials have also shrank to 9$ today. The debt hurts them and the market does not believe in $50 oil. He would prefer MEG.
He won't buy any service stocks today. It just isn't profitable; the market isn't rewarding drilling. Stop drilling and buy stocks, is his message to the oil industry. He'd rather buy Trican who are buying back stock.
It would not be a name he would own. The number of market participants are very small. There is a certain market-cap threshold for market relevance. There is a pressure for MnA. It has higher cost, medium heavy oil company. They suspended dividends.
They have cut back and preserved capital. They do not have a debt issue. They are a gas play. If gas prices stay strong, they should do well. She anticipates their 4th quarter production being lower. She is not buying it today, but the future looks good.
They did a flow through share. The company is involved in oil and Nat. gas. He has a $1.20 target on it. If they can generate more cash flow they can get the debt down. He likes it. He may add on weakness.
Enterprise value is very cheap. But the issue is they have debt. They did an infrastructure deal to reduce that debt. A big part of that debt is a 2024 maturity at a low interest rate, so Crew will survive. Their liquids are in a condensate-rich area. The stock has been hammered because of high…
Just beat earnings and have increased production. Cheap valuation compared to peers. But it's getting more expensive heading into 2021. There's no growth here, but that goes with the entire oil patch. The real issue is will they survive. Their balance sheet is getting better, but still high for a blue-chip name. You'll be saved…
He stayed away because they went to the states to make acquisitions. He did not know why the Americans would not already take these assets. He stays away from it.
Sold the stock a couple months ago and then bought back a 5% weight this morning. The stock has probably bottomed. The market wanted them to transact and when they did not execute, the multiple collapsed. At $50 oil, it will trade at 2.3x cashflow. The stock price could triple going forward.
They paid down the debt recently and are in very good shape. They are doing less CAP-X this year. His target is $1.20 so there is lots of upside. It will be a Q4 opportunity.
NexGen vs. Fission He owns both Fission and NexGen. They're far from infrastructure in the Athabasca Basin and would be challenged if it wasn't for their deposits being large and of quality (and next to each other). They could get built as a pair. The Fission deposit is borderline-tier one deposit, whole Nexgen's is. The…
It was a past pick. He trimmed half his position today to buy Enerplus and another company. The CEO and board are quite timid when they should be more aggressive. They cut the dividends by 71%. There is no exploratory risk and is one of the more defendable business. A new CEO must be more…
They have done some good acquisitions and they have heavy oil exposure, but the liquidity is just too slight.
It rose 4x since the mid-March low. Production is and will shut down in Q2 and Q3, and won't return until Q4. They are seeking financial support from the EDC and BDC, which are not giving support to any Canadian oil companies. There needs to be more support though reports today say that the rules…
It is quite a small company. It is hugely volatile. There a lot of problems over the years with the pricing of data coming from India regarding a 10% stake in another company. They have too much debt. The price of the gas they sell has been negotiated. A tough name to predict.
(A Top Pick Oct 22/18, Down 88%) He sold at $3.22, taking a big loss. They have a lot of worries. They are looking to sell the company. They might just liquidate the company, but clean up could be very expensive. He does not like stock consolidations and used that as a trigger to get…
The biggest land driller in Canada and one of the largest in North America. They still generated free cashflow even during challenging times. At $50 oil, they can generate free cashflow equivalent to their market cap if producers drill to maintain production. Downside is limited since they generated free cash this year still. (Analysts’ price…
In tough shape. They made the wrong bet on natural gas. Sell it and buy elsewhere. But it will pay off over five years.
Has nat gas exposure--and he's bearish on all nat gas stocks. Market cap is way too low for investors to really care for in this sector.
70% fracking and then they have coil tubing. They are pretty cheap. They are doing reasonably well. It is really, really cheap. The two biggest shareholders are funds so liquidity is an issue Buy on weakness; he would have a target of $5.
Shorting this has been a good play. There have been operational challenges and there were mine depletions. ESG forces are also a headwind. A well-owned company still being the largest in Canada. If oil prices inflect soon, Suncor will be a beneficiary.
He prefers services companies to producers. Existing wells decline quickly. Services companies have gear that you don’t have to worry about it declining. Insiders have been buying more recently. This one could be the last one standing.
Bullish on gas for the first time in years. Outlook for gas is very strong. An easy way to play growing demand. You have scale, good balance sheet, dividend payments. Valuation is good. 15% free cashflow at $50 oil. 90% upside is possible. (Analysts’ price target is $22.52)
Liked their ability to buy back shares from free cash flow. But then management decided to chase growth, so he divested. Decent gas exposure. Its recovery is still too low to attract investor interest. Better names to own.
🛢 Basic Materials
It's been stuck at these levels for a long time, but likes recent volumes. No problem buying this one.
Forestry space He owns no names. The stocks are okay but face trade disputes and an economic slowdown that will hit housing stocks. The stocks have been beaten up.
Allan Tong’s Discover Picks During the depths of the lockdown, the price of lumber in the CME futures has tripled since April 1 to nearly touch US$828 (per thousand board feet) just recently. There are no signs yet to show a slowdown in demand. Meanwhile, Canfor is still only halfway to its all-time highs above…
Has an old mine outside of Los Angeles that was run in the 1930s. Closed down during the Second World War and they are doing open pit mining in the area. Has some issues, but at these gold prices, it will probably start to work again. Under followed. Highly speculative.
The company has suspended its dividend. They operate diamond mines in South Africa. They are looking into underground, from open pit. The cost is more expensive than thought. The price of diamonds has been reduced, though retail prices won’t change.
Agnico-Eagle (AEM-T) came in a while ago and made a 9.9% stake in this company. The stock went up, but it really hasn’t done much since then. Then Barrick (ABX-T) came in and said they really liked the deposit and wanted to do a joint venture. This is a much better approach that is better…
Likes the managers, but concerned with the topography. A decent-sized gold project. A good speculation.
He's owned this for two decades. ALS has been weak lately because a lot of its cash from royalties from coal mines. Alberta suspects coal gets backed out by natural gas, which means ALS's free cash flow from that gas will decline in the next five years. This stock is still very cheap based on…
Wallbridge Mining to buy Balmoral It depends on your timeframe--some will take the premium in Balmoral and grab the profit. He expects in two years that the deal will benefit shareholders with lower costs. The Abitibi is a great gold district. If he owned this, he'd hang onto it.
Copper pricing seems to be Firming here. Commodities are starting to come off from a bottom here. It is 9 years into a bull market and into a recovery. If you are going to play it, this is probably a not bad place to be. Copper looks interesting here.
This now has a project in Mongolia which has epithermal veins, which he loves. When you do find them and they carry great grades, it can grow really fast. This has a 50 g/meter width quite prominent with something like 16% which gets him excited. Still very early stage.
Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. The sector and in particular the company has shown good momentum. Good cash flow off-sets their stretched balance sheet. Cheap on valuation. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
Earnings expectations are for a $0.14 loss this year per share, compared to $1.23 from last year. The company has recovered to strongly on the US housing market recovery. Based on historic valuations relative to book value he sees a range of $11 to $16 for the share price. It has a good balance sheet.…
“Jumps and Steps” – quite common in junior companies. Each jump is a news item. As it gets closer to production, it will keep on doing this. Pullbacks are due to profit taking. Must stay above the $0.30 level, otherwise it may be bad news.
This is a zero, although not priced there yet. That is where it is going. It has been a lousy company for a long time. Madagascar will prove to be their undoing. They defaulted on their debt in February. Their debt is currently worth 54 cents on the dollar so the stock is worth zero.
This is on his watch list. He is not familiar with their fundamentals. Today's earnings release will help define their future.
They intend to spin out their western Canadian retail real assets to become an owner of office and industrial assets in North America. Investors will receive units of this new small-cap REIT, which will be difficult to value. The hope is that the office/industrial REIT will see a re-rating of its value. Spin-outs often don't…
The overall yield is 5.8%. The dividend seems to be well covered. The earnings for last quarter were 33% higher than expected. The outlook for the company is pretty good. The acquisition could offer good synergy.
You can buy any of the banks here in Canada. They have under-performed the general market. His favourites are RY-T and TD-T. He likes US banks right now, also.
(A Top Pick May 02/19, Down 25%) He got stopped out. It was a value play. It was cheap at $15. He doesn't know how retailer investors will respond to this current uncertainty. The mutual fund business was facing headwinds before the pandemic. He won't buy back his shares.
It broke a down trend. It has pretty weak upside. The recent level of highs has not been taken out. It is struggling.
GWO vs. SLF Insurance companies have done a lot to reduce their risk. GWO is cheaper than SLF, with a higher growth rate, but it hasn't been as steady eddy as SLF. Whole space is pretty cheap. Dividends are safe. Boring area. You can own both, but GWO is the better buy.
It is a difficult stock to own in this environment. The pandemic has shut them. He believes the distribution has been suspended. They have impaired cash flow and higher level.
(A Top Pick Jun 26/19, Down 3%) Financials have been punished. Still holds it because of the valuation, trading below book value. Solid balance sheet. Will benefit from a reflation trade or rates moving higher. Payout ratio of only 27% with a yield of 4.1%.
Doesn't like the merger with POW. Sell PWF and buy Aecon? Don't because Aecon has its own issues, and the merger makes sense. PWF/POW was an old-1980s structure and needed to consolidate to raise the overall value. Problem is, there's is little growth in the company's existing businesses. Mutual funds are getting crushed by ETFs,…
He is not bull on the office space. They have been growing in sub-markets he is not keen on. 37% is in Atlantic Canada and he is not keen on their holdings.
(A Top Pick May 14/18, Down 21%) It had a tough go since he was on. He continues to believe it is one of the best plays to get exposure to bit coin. It is a well run company.
(A Top Pick Feb 24/16. Down 43.33%.) This was a big disappointment. They changed their focus on their business plan. He got stopped out. They were basically doing loans to doctors, but have now changed and is doing software service. The market didn’t like that.
Small and obscure and in commercial real estate that he doesn't like. This will suffer if there's a downturn. This is also small-cap; better to buy a larger-cap REIT.
Is there any growth in the investment business? AGF's balance sheet is too big for what they earn. Potential write-offs must happen to bring that down. Asset management businesses are being killed. $10.84 is his target price--lots of upside and they can cover their dividend.
He owns this one and likes the management team. There seems to be a consistent buyer of this stock. They have high margins. It is not cheap at these levels. There are not too many ways to play technology from a real estate perspective. They have a strong position on pricing data in the real…
(A Top Pick Jul 16/19, Up 1%) It's the best performer of the big 5 banks and pays the second-highest dividend that'll make up most of returns. Don't expect share appreciation in banks, but still a solid business with banks getting a piece of the equity management business. But the lending spread will be challenged…
Blackstone took over Dream Global, and DRM got a large cheque out of it in their holdings and asset management contract. They've since done a large issuer bid that that the biggest shareholder, the CEO, tendered into below NAV. So, the NAV has grown. DRM will benefit from lower interest rates. (Analysts’ price target is…
He prefers buying a insurance company directly like Manulife and Intact. Though well-run, FFH has a mixed bag of many assets. This mix adds a level of risk vs. pure insurers.
IGM-T vs. MIC-T. He would prefer MIC-T. He likes the underlying fundamentals, but has always worried about a real estate downturn and how it would affect it. He prefers it to IGM-T where he does not see how the fee structure would be sustainable in the long run.
This is a way to play the millennial fintech market with a dash of crypto. The stock made its IPO at 10, then pulled back sharply. They have a platform that allows millennials (or anyone else) to get loans, mortgages, and other financial products -- now including a crypto layer. There are 10 million millennials…
(A Top Pick Feb 16/16. Up 6.28%.) This has some creative stuff and he had been looking for bond portfolios that are actively managed and a little bit outside the normal ETF’s. He is still buying some of this.
ZUB-T vs. ZBK-T. If you are thinking long term, he would go into the hedged version. It is not time to step into US banks yet. We will likely make lower lows. You are not owning them for dividend payout these days.
HPB Energy Bull+ ETF. Immediate leverage to oil price moves. If you have a very good near-term bet that you want to make on oil this would be the way to go but if you are looking for an investment in the oil patch that has a long-term investment implications, then you should go to…
Cuts in dividends? This ETF covered writes about 33% of the portfolio. The higher volatility in energy adds well to value -- buffering about 10% of the total loss. The dividends could be cut entirely by the companies. The premiums would likely maintained.
HBP S&P 500 Bull (HSU-T) or BMO Equal Weight US Banks Hedged To CDN$ (ZUB-T)? These are 2 completely different things. A lot of people are negative on Bull+ and Bear+ ETFs but he thinks there is a place for these things but he doesn’t think it is here. Thinks it is going to be…
This is a call on oil. He is not going to want to buy a lot of oil. This is the 15 largest companies and they write covered calls. You will collect much higher premiums for the calls. But he would be cautious of this one.
Challenge with buying US ETFs that participate in MLPs is that they're not favourable to a Canadian investor. Withholding tax of 15-30%. Be very, very careful on the MLPs. If you want gas exposure, think about XEG or ZEO. Most bang for the buck would be the HED, with small cap exposure. Small caps have…
Europe, Australia, and Far East so has been affected by Brexit. A good ETF but hasn't performed well. Could buy ZWE, which is more European based. Would like to see more U.S. exposure.
(A Top Pick August 8/17, Up 8%) This holds what’s left over from the XIU 60. Wanted to get into some smaller stuff to get better diversification, and focus on this rather than the broader-based indices.
Not an area he would pay attention to though it is interesting. In good economic times, small caps are the place to be. In this cycle, the big caps and tech has been carrying the ball. The ETF hasn’t gone anywhere. Maybe small-caps aren’t doing well this cycle. We are also late in the cycle…
He would recommend taking a tax loss on this and buying into his energy fund. His fund has fewer names and a larger average market cap. The ETF is passive -- he prefers active management.
In general, US financials have had trouble tracking the S&P. He's underweight financials. Net interest margins, loan losses, economic uncertainty. Had moved up, but now back down.
Alcanna (CLIQ-T) TSE
The dividend was very high, almost too high. The dividend was illuminated and the stock price took a hit. They are active in the alcohol space and marijuana. Have been raising money, and could be a potential acquisition for Aurora.
Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. The company is very well run with a strong position in Canada.They have high debt but it should not affect their small dividend payments. Growth will be better in 2021. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
BRP INC (DOO-T) TSE
Hard to believe that in a middle of a recession, their products would be in high demand. But they are. The stimulus cheques are being spent as discretionary income. Scores well on momentum and valuation, but volatile. High beta. Earnings outlook is reasonable. Don't sell it here.
His favourite manufacturing stock. LNR makes transmissions for Ford and GE pick-up trucks, so they're at the forefront for the car industry. They also have products for e-cars, like an electric axle. Their SkyJack division is rebounding with the construction business, and their fire machinery business is positioned well in the coming recovery.
It is unbelievable where this stock is trading at. Acquisitions this year are worth less than half what they paid for them. It was trading at less than half what it was worth. They are trading below the amount of cash they have. It shocks him how far it continues to go down.
One of his core holdings. They are continuing to grow their margins. It is trading at a huge discount to other alcohol companies. (Analysts’ price target is $17.00)
(A Top Pick Jun 18/18, Up 1%) Still likes it. It's well-run. They're growing their brands and they have a big opportunity to get into cannabis beverages which will be legal in Canada in October 2019. BRB is well-positioned for this and this market could be very large.
It was doing everything well and they were going to sell the business before the pandemic. Now, the business is ruined. With social distancing and lack of good movies, it is un-investable.
They bought Newfoundland Capital. It is a radio operator now. Debt is high but they keep increasing their dividend. People see them as background music in a retail environment. It is an okay stock and he would like it a lot better with a lot less debt.
Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Their Q3 report was very positive and beat estimates. The revenue forecast is 40% compared to last year. The EBITDA forecast is nearly 75% of 2019 levels. The stock should start being more noticed. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
Provides a service very similar to Alphabet (GOOGL-Q), which is provided for free. When your competitor is providing your services free, it is tough to be competitive.
(A Top Pick May 29/18, Down 40%) They make electronic products for other manufacturers, like Cisco. There has been a lot of new product spending delays in the space and this is hurting them. The valuation is great and the company continues to buy back their own shares.
(A Top Pick Oct 18/19, Up 275%) He kept picking away it and still owns it. A few years ago, this stood at $80, but fell to $10 when they a great deal to buy DigitalGlobe which increased the company's value though levered the balance sheet. MAXR does satellite imaging and analytics for defence and…
Just announced a discovery in Columbia. Flow tested over 2000 barrels per day. This well could produce up to 5000 when brought into production. A very well distributed stock so it might not jump too fast. Company could get taken out.
(A Top Pick Oct 15/19, Up 20%) Operates MRI clinics in the US. Now second largest in the US. Can consolidate and grow. Substantial margins in the mid-20s. Impressive management team. Still likes it at these levels.
(A Top Pick Dec 20/18, Down 40%) It had a good turn in January. Beaten down stocks can have a nice bounce in January.
How COVID will effect this industry, retirement homes? He owns Sienna instead. EXE is much more involved in government-funded LTCs. Along with Chartwell, these two companies are under government scrutiny, so they likely do a much better job than private LTCs. Good question how COVID will affect these homes: there may be increased costs to…
They hit a financing crisis and needed cash. So, they issued 20 billion share at 1.5 cents per share. A massive dilution that destroyed the shareholder base. Avoid.
A US company like EIF-T, and is it like Cargojet? No, not like Cargojet, and he can't compare EIF to an US company. But a Canadian comparable is Onex, a holding company that owns industrials and several small airlines that served remote regions (i.e. northern Quebec). All airlines are struggling now, but these remote areas…
(A Top Pick May 08/19, Down 25%) A tough environment for them. They sold out of their holding last June around $22. They were having troubles rolling out a South American strategy so opted to move on.
Very cheap, trading below book value. Balance sheet is a little heavy. Great yield. Historically miss earnings. Consolidate a declining industry and try to rationalize it by cutting costs. He holds if for the yield and the valuation. Have to be patient.
It formed a nice base. It has a strong yield. It is coming out the last few days. We are getting close to a break out.
He bought it as a value play with sum of the parts worth more than it was trading at. They are trying to sell some of the parts. Thinks they will sell all the parts and distribute the cash. $4-$5 breakup value. It is taking longer than he thought to break it up.
Use this list wisely to identify buying opportunities.
Happy trading !!!