This week’s new 52-week lows… (Dec 12-18)

This has done an incredible job of production and getting their costs down. We have a real use of natural gas for electricity air conditioning generation across North America, so gas prices are up. This is not the day that you want to buy gas stocks.

A Top Pick November 9/17 Down 64%) Natural gas companies, as a whole, have been taking a beating lately. People are worried about prices of $1.00 /mcf. LNG export capacity is sopping up growing production in the US and he expects a 3.2 TCF storage level there heading into winter, compared against 4.0 TCF historical…

Hasn’t owned this, but understands the appeal of the stock. They have some pretty good attributes. Shed some of their Montney assets, and refocused the company around some very prolific liquids rich Montney assets. He is hearing some test rates of 3000 barrels a day or more on some of these wells. They’ve also locked…

They benefit from the wide WCS differential. They just beat their earnings 7%. Excellent balance sheet. 0.3x net debt-to-EBITDA. 79% payout ratio supports their dividend, and trade cheaper than peers. Only caveat is he doesn't so as much growth in 2019. If you need to own oil, this is very defensive.

Trucking and well completion services. Pre-eminent logistics player on oil sands. Expected them to make acquisitions by this time. Long-term, great company to own. 3.4% yield.

Chart shows a long downward channel from mid-2016. The fact that we don’t have a move higher, like we’ve seen in some of the other energy names, is a little concerning. All indicators are pointing down, and he can see nothing that will change this.

This was heavily weighted towards natural gas. Management has been doing a great job of divesting non-core assets. Thinks there debt to cash flow is still around 6 or 7 times making them more sensitive to a decrease in the price of natural gas. Thinks there will be a wave of selling in some of…

2nd horizontal well results were disappointing with a 750 MCF a day versus the 1st well of 5 million. Somewhat cautious on the economic viability of this play. Could be quite a bit more headwinds.

They have international exposure which diversifies you away from Canadian oil prices. The dividend is safe. They will be paying down debt over the next few years from their cash flow. He likes it at current levels. But he doesn't know when investors will return to this sector to lift current depressed oil prices. Yields…

In the drilling business with one of the better management teams and a pretty new drill fleet. If you are going to own any drillers in the Canadian space, this is one of the top 3 that you want to own. However, with the drop in oil and gas prices, it is difficult for them…

This year will be a very big year for them. They do business in Morocco, which is a great place to do business this year. They sell energy in Morocco for much higher prices than Canada and the United States. They also had a discovery in Egypt and expect government approval to bring this onstream…

The stock has been devastated. Debt is not a concern. They are producing well. It is a high quality name.

His go to name for when WTI returns to $80 next year. Even at today’s high stock price, this could still go to $5 per share. They have reduced their leverage and could become debt-free in the near future. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $1.85 )

Temporary housing accommodation camp provider. Have reached a point where they are more like four-star and five-star hotels because of the labour shortage. Stock has been hitting all-time highs. Does about $120 million in EBITDA. There are about 50,000 beds in the oil sands and they’ve got about 11,000 of them. A replacement cycle is…

Seeing strong improvement now. Since 2017, it's been in a strong downtrend, but has recently improved. He likes it. Been a good rally in the past month, and he sees further upside for this stock and natural gas in general.

This offers great leverage to higher oil prices and tighter heavy oil differentials.. Over 37% of their cash flow comes from the Eagleford and have enormous exposure to the Duvernay. The value of this asset is in excess of the share price. It has had enormous tax loss selling recently, so it has great upside.…

Trican (TCW-T) or Calfrac (CFW-T)? This is a better company operationally and geographically. Less debt, although they do have a lot of debt as well, so everything is not rosy. His preference would be Canyon Services (FRC-T).

A year ago this stock looked very low and the commodity price was low, however, the companies in this sector were still making money. He thinks there will be good returns in the sector, but he prefers more torque with companies that will benefit from tighter heavy oil differentials.

Hoping to be acquired. Feels the assets are worth a lot more than where the stock is trading. Can't see who would want all of the company's assets. If it was sold in 2 or 3 different pieces, they could probably get more value.

Gas weighted. Recently sold one of their non-Montney assets, which really cleared the balance sheet and put them into a position to become a focused Montney gas player, with a balance sheet that could finance activity, for at least the next 12-18 months. Getting over the hump where you are self financing is very important.…

Oil producers have been a mixed bag. This one is in the 'dog' category. It consolidated, then downtrend, then consolidation, then downtrend. It is forever breaking down. He would say he does not like the chart. There are other oil stocks if you want to be in the sector.

The oil sector remains in limbo until this sector sees light at the end of the tunnel. If you own oil stocks, hold them, but don't add.

Chart shows this has taken quite a dip in the last while. Changes in management because of production mishaps. Need to look at these from both a production standpoint and a commodity standpoint. Have a constrained balance sheet and not a lot of room to raise CapX for growth. More linked to oil than to…

He’s not really excited about energy, and gets a feeling we are just being manipulated. He likes big cap energy in the US. This closed at $13.29, and his model price is $17.30, a 30% upside. It’s one Canadian stock that actually has a distribution that is actually lower than its income. Thinks it goes…

An oilfield services company. Longer-term, he likes this. They are the Western Canadian leader in the coil tubing service business. Long-term, there is a good opportunity in this space. In the short term, he would be a little bit cautious on the entire services space. Profitability is pretty muted.

Chart shows this consolidated at around $1.10 this spring. Support was broken in early June and it dropped down to below $1. Then it rose again to the support level at around $1.10. The story doesn’t look so great. He wouldn’t want to be in the stock.

(A Top Pick Feb 8/17, Up 8%) It is going to boost its dividend each year. You should get 10% total return. It is a nice conservative way to play a volatile sector.

Didn’t raise capital in the process of going public. Very cost focused company. $17-19 range. 15% per share growth predicted. On his watch list.

The 3-year chart shows a low that is under $4. Currently this is above that low so it is probably okay. If there is a bounce, you might want to reduce in the bounce, because he thinks there is more to come. On a relative basis, this is one of the better ones.

This is a smaller company. A Cardium player in Western Canada. They have a good team. It is currently doing 3600 BOE’s a day and will be north of 4000-4200 by the end of the year. His 12-month target is $3.60. BV is $3. How many times do you buy a good growing company with…

(Market Call Minute.)

It hit upon hard times with an extremely highly leveraged balance sheet, but management has kept the company alive. They have significantly de-risked the company but it has shrunk. The balance sheet is very much improved. This is a very high risk/high reward kind of play.

Is the largest driller in Canada. Did very well in Q2 in US, but less so in Canada. Debt has gone up, so they have some balance sheet concerns. Has other names in this sector that may be better with higher growth potential and less balance sheet concerns.

They executed the plan flawlessly. The declining gas price challenges them. Thinks it is pretty neat. Prefers TOU because it is a bigger company. If you are patient with PNE-X in a low gas market it seems they have a strategy for taking advantage of the low gas price.

Still very early stage. A long lead cycle. They are trying to get over the hump. They are de-risking assets. They are trying to maintain a nice clean balance sheet. They have easy access to capital so the market is willing to finance the project. There are companies further along the process, though.

Coming out of Arc Financial (private equity). Clean balance sheet. Trading at 1.9 times next year EBITDA. Historical average in Canada of a pumper is 7. Liquidity vacuum in the stock market is creating this opportunity. (Analysts’ price target is $18.20)

$60.37 is his target price. You can enter it now. It will benefit from rising oil prices. It's a low-risk trade.

The utilization rate in the US is under duress. They slowed drilling in Q4. This stock is very cheap. The balance sheet is good. Book value is $3.27 and the stocks trades less than half that. The company has been buying back shares. You have to wait for the turn in the cycle. Buy it…

The 1st place this is going to run into resistance is at around $7.80, so there is a lot of upside left. It should start pushing onto $9.15. It's a good stock to own right now.

Tourmaline versus Painted Pony. TOU-T is a $5.8 billion company with 22% liquids, moving towards 40% liquids production soon. PONY-T market cap is $438 million. These are apples to oranges. He lies both companies, however, and both are on his recommended list. If we see a further market erosion with tax loss season approaching in…

One of the 1st ones to unlock a zone in the Cardium, and now the industry is following them. Their results have been getting better and better and better. Production per share has been very, very strong. This is one that can compete with the US names.

It's been stuck at these levels for a long time, but likes recent volumes. No problem buying this one.

Play on the US housing recovery as well as timber, as they ship to US and Asia. Management bought 3 sawmills in 2006 which have been losing money. Have recapitalized a couple of the mills and are looking for better utilization. With better timber prices, she is expecting it to turn around and will probably…

Lumber is something he doesn’t want to be playing in right now. He would prefer OSB through Norbord (OSB-T), which hasn’t really been impacted by Chinese dumping, and benefits from a low Cdn$.

Has an old mine outside of Los Angeles that was run in the 1930s. Closed down during the Second World War and they are doing open pit mining in the area. Has some issues, but at these gold prices, it will probably start to work again. Under followed. Highly speculative.

Operated by the Lundine family. This has been a truly outstanding Canadian success story. It mines and markets some of the highest quality diamonds globally. Earnings on a quarterly basis are lumpy, but over the course of a year they earn and distribute a lot of money. Return on cost employed in this mine is…

Yukon. Million oz discovered. Large potential to expand.

Management is first-class. The stock may be fully priced given where they are in the assets that they acquired. However, if you go back in time with this management, you don’t do poorly investing with them.

Mainly in Alaska and Arizona. Stock is generally not known. Project generation. Relationships and projects with several other companies. It spreads the risk.

(A Top Pick March 6/12. Down 4.52%.) A fantastic company. Management has done a spectacular job. About $180 million in the kitty. Extremely conservative financially.

Picked up a large land package in Ontario and Québec. Conceptually picked up on trend large deposits of Detour (DGC-T) and looking to replicate the same success.

A fantastic story. Have about 5 billion pounds of copper and gold. Cash costs in this environment should be about negative. Sees upside in this one.

They are active in several concessions in Mongolia. Any one of their projects could be a major mine. Should do well over the long term.

A lot of people want to play the housing market in the US and their recovery, which hasn’t really recovered the way people thought it would. Last year there were 900,000 new homes sold, and somewhere between 1 and 1.5 million new homes is a reasonable expectation. This company sells all the stuff that goes…

This is one of those stocks that has double seasonality. It has a very strong period of upside moves, and a very strong period of downside moves. Historically this has done very well from the beginning of October right through until April of each year. Something that is very important is the big arrangement with…

A few days ago they acquired a historic mine and believe that there is more ore in the mine. It transforms the company and gives them a project they can sink their teeth into and gives them a new direction.

A fantastic looking stock. The last upward trend is really positive. If it can get above the high of around $1.70 it reached in early 2017, it is not going to have much resistance. If it could get above the $1.80 point, it could easily be a double.

Just announced a 70% increase in their mineral reserves. 7.7 million ounces of gold and 3.6 billion of copper. Extended the Prosperity mine life from 20 years to 33 years. It will be the largest gold/copper reserve project in Canada. Expect they will get a partner.

This started as a Western Canadian focused REIT and has expanded into the US. Their payout ratio is a little higher than others, but overtime this is an investment that will pay well and he has faith they will work to lower the leverage on the balance sheet. Yield 8.4%.

Has held in remarkably well given the manufacturing slowdown in Canada. One of his largest holdings in one of his funds. One of the 2 cheapest stocks in the universe that he covers. A really strong ROE at 23%. Trading at 4.5X Price to Free Cash Flow, so is really cheap. Dividend yield of 6.5%.…

They increased their dividend. U.S. operations are attractive and they are expanding them. Better U.S. growth helps them. A good stock. Ranks BMO #4 of the big Canadian banks after TD, RBC and SB.

They are in a tough industry being in mutual funds and trying to transition out. Saw a big decline from 2015 until 2016 and now we’ve just moved sideways when they should have been moving up. We are in seasonal period and financial companies tends to get strong at this time of the year. From…

(A Top Pick March 20/13. Down 58%.)

Great West Life (GWO-T), Sun Life (SLF-T) or Manulife (MFC-T)? This depends on quality and size, but if you are thinking of just keeping it very safe, Manulife and Sun Life would be the 2 he would zoom in on.

This recently took a hit, because they did an issuance. Issued some shares to repay some debt. They’ve done a pretty good job. Thinks the payout ratio is fine. Hotels are a more cyclical area, so you have to be careful. Trading at a good multiple and has good distribution.

Has been more beat up in the market compared to Sun Life Financial (SLF-T) and Manulife (MFC-T), because it has less exposure to outside of Canada, although they do have a bit of US business. Also, their asset management business is seeing a little bit of negative flow. This has brought the stock price down…

They have insurance and investment groups with assets into Europe as well. He likes their yield over 6%. He is interested in this again. With the recent pullback, there is now less risk.

He likes the Slate team which are doing a lot of really interesting things across the board. This is more secondary office, suburban office buildings. It will be an interesting vehicle in the future, but we are not there yet, as he expects more pressure of people leaving older buildings in the suburbs and coming…

If you can't buy the coin directly this is a very interesting leveraged play. It is one of the biggest bit coin miners out there. Two years from now the net asset value of the company could double. (Analysts’ target: $7.85).

They issued a lot of shares to get the deal done. It is a great business. The press release today said the loan book is growing. This is incredibly fast. They will have to raise more debt financing soon. You have an overhang from PHM-X with the same management. They just need a few quarters…

This buys small grocery anchored centres. It is so small that it is hard to get some love. If you own it, it is going to move around and will be very volatile. You are going to lose and gain. The main part of your return is going to be your yield, currently over 11%,…

The problem is that they just sell mutual funds and are under huge duress right now to be able to do something more than just that. Expects they will come out with a brand of ETF’s. Net outflows are continuing. It is not a good time to be a mutual fund company. When CRM2 regulations…

Real estate advisory and have a small survey business in western Canada. Q1 was disappointing. Would be concerned unless they could deliver stronger fundamental results.

This has been disappointing for the past couple of years, but the dividend yield of 5% is good. He would not worry about holding this. His stop-loss would be $100.

Should one buy Dream, which pays no dividend and has dropped significantly in value or just buy its managed REITs and be happy with the 8% distribution? Really depends on your needs. If you need theincome or happy with the capital gains. This is the asset manager that manages the REITs. It also has a…

(Past Top Pick Sept.29, 2017, Up 8%) They sold their majority stake in their Asian insurance business. It does suffer lumpy earnings, but they write profitable insurance. Made a big purchase in Allied World last year. Some of their investments, like the Toronto Star, may or may not work out, but Prem Watsa is a…

Chart shows it has had 2 little bottoms, and is positive that the downtrend has been broken. Financials in general have been pretty weak. Until this one breaks out of the downtrend channel, he would not start a new position. Rising interest rates help financials. Dividend yield of 6.3%.

A name where there was a lot of growth priced in on the IPO. The company is still growing, but not profitably yet. However, it is so oversold and we are starting to see the bounce. That is probably the end of tax loss selling and you could see a nice trade in it here.

He normally has iShares DEX Short-Term Bond (XSB-T), but is looking for something that will give him a little bit of an edge. This is about 60% Canadian Corp., about 25% US, as well as some US high-yield. The distribution yield and their yield to maturity are close, which is unusual. They are also doing…

(A Top Pick Sept 23/15. Up 35.44%.) Thinks this will continue on. It is a core holding for him.

Has been beaten up and you are getting double gearing to basket of producers. You are not taking single company risks.

A good ETF. You're swapping a lot of income for growth. If you want that, then fine.

HBP S&P 500 Bull (HSU-T) or BMO Equal Weight US Banks Hedged To CDN$ (ZUB-T)? These are 2 completely different things. A lot of people are negative on Bull+ and Bear+ ETFs but he thinks there is a place for these things but he doesn’t think it is here. Thinks it is going to be…

Given that the energy space is volatile, but not overly sold, the covered call strategies have looked pretty attractive over the last couple of years. Generally speaking, he is not an energy fan or investor. However, when his arm gets twisted by a TSX that roars forward, and he is not playing that game, he…

(A Top Pick April 12/16. Up 2.96%.) This is a classic seasonal play. Historically the energy sector in Canada does well from the 3rd week in January right through until the middle of June. If you own, continue to Hold until around the middle of June.

Europe, Australasia and Far East (CAD-Hedged) ETF. One of his core ETF recommendations for clients who buy ETFs..

If you are looking for a growth story in Canada, not including energy, you'll have to look at midcaps. Avoids volatility.

(A Top Pick Sept 1/11. Up 15.83%.) Given the choice, you should always tilt towards small cap in value. There aren't a lot of value-based ETF's but there are a lot more in the US. Currency hedged.

(A Top Pick Feb 10/11. Up 2.51%.) Junior Oil Index ETF. Low interest rates and high oil prices makes oils particularly good because of takeovers.

(A Top Pick Jan 8/18, Down 20.79%) It is trapped in a trading range. It should do okay until June when the seasonality runs out on it.

He said several years ago to stay away because they needed such renovation of their stores. They are now reestablishing their western Canada presence and selling off their US stores. Cannabis may or may not be the savior of the stores.

A growth company, adding stores. They've built their brand and are well-managed. However, they had a few quarters where same-store sales disappointed, so the stock got hit. But there's still room for them to grow in Canada. A decent place to put your money if you're long-term and don't need a big dividend.

Fantastic company. Polaris has performed very well. Fantastic margins. You lack these types of brands in Canada. This is the Skidoo brand. It will continue to attract capital. At some point it will be included in the index giving you another leg up.

He thinks the market is telling you the car market cycle is coming to an end. The move to electric vehicles and car production not likely ever making new highs worries him. It has about 100% upside in value, but he cautious of the cycle nature. He would be careful.

The industry has been hammered in the last couple of years. It is hard to analyze. The results aren’t that transparent. It is hard to know how it is doing organically. He does not think the company was that well managed in the past. It is a wait and see approach.

Doesn’t own dual class share companies, but this one has been an amazing growth story. Incredibly successful. If he didn’t have an issue with dual class shares, he might actually buy this. It is unbelievable to him that in an industry which is low growth, they have made some great acquisitions and they cover all…

What normally happens with the smaller brewers is that they get taken out. He likes the company, but doesn’t follow it closely. A good story with good earnings growth.

Excellent management team – they have done all the right things. It got expensive and then the stock came down. The box-office has been very stable for decades. They added a lot of services. Now is a time to buy it. The game centers are where the growth will come from. It is at a…

They make bikes, baby furniture, baby equipment, car seats, etc. The family that is involved in it owns a significant stake. He sees better days ahead. It is trading at a reasonable valuation. Dividend yield of about 4%.

Music on your cable box. They put up a good quarter recently and raised their dividend. There is insider trading. It is going to become a street darling. It is somewhat illiquid. (Analysts’ target: $10.00).

(A Top Pick April 3/17 Down 21%) This was previously Wi-Lan. It lost $12 million last quarter, but with $49 million in cash flow. They have done three material takeovers on the last year. This company will be in expansion mode and he continues to like it as a turnaround candidate.

Provides a service very similar to Alphabet (GOOGL-Q), which is provided for free. When your competitor is providing your services free, it is tough to be competitive.

$300 million in cash and less than 9 times earnings. They just can’t get any love. It had a bit better execution in terms of earnings and they could get recognized. They buy back stocks. Leverage on their operations is quite high and it has not performed yet. (Analysts’ target: $14.87).

Too speculative and carries huge debt. It had a good run, but launching satellites is really expensive with credit spreads wider now. This is in the penalty box, though they could fix the business.

Gas play in Guatemala and Colombia. Have a lot of land blocks near where Petrominerales (PMG-T) hit. Just drilled a well with a fairly large target in Guatemala and found oil at a much higher area than expected. Cased the well and we'll hear more next week. Highly speculative.

Akumin on the TSX will migrate to NASDAQ which will be a big catalyst. It trades in U.S. dollars. They're a medical imaging company, a space ripe for consolidation. AKU is also in artificial intelligence. (Analysts' price target: $6.00)

He likes this and has a fairly large position, but his average cost is $7. The challenge going forward as it goes higher, is that they have a very high dependence on a single product. The challenge over time is to get diversification into their portfolio. He thinks this can definitely go higher, but some…

Pays a decent dividend, but not loads of growth. You'll see 2-4% earnings growth. Also, this is interest-rate sensitive. Over 10 years, their chart has been sideways, and the next five years will likely be like the past five.

There should be some news. They have some drug developments coming through the pipeline, and some of their partners are going to have some news. You might get more activity and more interest in the stock over the balance of the year. They’ve done a couple of non-diluted financings and loaded up the balance sheets…

There is an aviation and manufacturing division within this company. As a conglomerate it usually trades at a discount. There was a short selling investor who had issues with some of their acquisitions in the past. Some lower margin leasing activity in the aviation division may also be creating some uncertainty with investors.

It's the world's largest Caterpillar equipment dealer and they also do after-market service and support, which reduces the cyclicality of this business. It boasts 15% ROE and trades at 17x earnings. (Analysts' price target $38.83)

Over the last few years they have been picking away at small acquisitions. They were building an expertise in the industry. Then they made a large acquisition and vaulted themselves into the top ten in North America in their space. It is still being priced as a printing company. He does not think they are…

Fixed price energy contracts door to door. It has done fairly well. The turn in terms of their clients is so high, though. He does not feel that comfortable with them. 8% yield and do people really believe it?

Well run company. Long term hold.