Cipher Pharmeuticals

CPH-T

Analysis and Opinions about CPH-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
December 30, 2019
(A Top Pick Dec 20/18, Down 40%) It had a good turn in January. Beaten down stocks can have a nice bounce in January.
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(A Top Pick Dec 20/18, Down 40%) It had a good turn in January. Beaten down stocks can have a nice bounce in January.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
August 16, 2019
(A Top Pick Nov 27/18, Down 44%) Lot of value still, but they completely replaced management and are looking to sell off parts or all of the business. Wait till that passes.
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(A Top Pick Nov 27/18, Down 44%) Lot of value still, but they completely replaced management and are looking to sell off parts or all of the business. Wait till that passes.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
April 29, 2019
(A Top Pick Nov 27/18, Down 42%) A real dog, and he sold part of it late last year. He can't talk about it much.
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(A Top Pick Nov 27/18, Down 42%) A real dog, and he sold part of it late last year. He can't talk about it much.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
January 14, 2019
(A Top Pick Mar 26/18, Down 54%) He slightly reduced his position, but still holds it. They got into a business agreement with Sun Pharma, a bigger company, that was distributing one of the biggest drugs. They did a big promotion last year and the stock did very well, but they stopped promoting it. The inventory built up and their orders to Cipher dwindled to almost nothing. CPH stock got punished. They've since solved it with a long-term supply agreement. Also, they have two new drugs approved in 2018 with at least three more in 2019. The founder just bought a bunch of shares, which is a good sign.
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(A Top Pick Mar 26/18, Down 54%) He slightly reduced his position, but still holds it. They got into a business agreement with Sun Pharma, a bigger company, that was distributing one of the biggest drugs. They did a big promotion last year and the stock did very well, but they stopped promoting it. The inventory built up and their orders to Cipher dwindled to almost nothing. CPH stock got punished. They've since solved it with a long-term supply agreement. Also, they have two new drugs approved in 2018 with at least three more in 2019. The founder just bought a bunch of shares, which is a good sign.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
November 27, 2018
(A Top Pick Mar 26/18, Down 51%) It's plunged since the spring, treated unfairly by the market. (He explains why later in the show.)
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(A Top Pick Mar 26/18, Down 51%) It's plunged since the spring, treated unfairly by the market. (He explains why later in the show.)
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
November 27, 2018
It was treated unfairly by its U.S. partner and the market. In 2017, CPH heavily promoted their big product and so they gained a lot of market share. But when they cut their promotion, there was also an inventory adjustment. So, demand went down way more than they should have. He thinks they will rebound in the next few quarter. It's also a take-over candidate. There's no cyclicality to this business either. (Analysts’ price target is $5.06)
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It was treated unfairly by its U.S. partner and the market. In 2017, CPH heavily promoted their big product and so they gained a lot of market share. But when they cut their promotion, there was also an inventory adjustment. So, demand went down way more than they should have. He thinks they will rebound in the next few quarter. It's also a take-over candidate. There's no cyclicality to this business either. (Analysts’ price target is $5.06)
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
August 28, 2018

This is a specialty pharma company. They have been focused on dermatology products, the lead being Absorbica. He’s excited by their development pipeline. They bought the Canadian assets of Cardiome and have successfully integrated them. This came with tax losses along with the pipelines. Together, they help make Cipher incredibly cheap at its current price. There was an issue with inventory of their US partner, but that has now been resolved. He expects the recovery to show good earnings momentum for the back half of this year, then the release of new products. The company has dropped from $18--it was caught up in the run-up of prescription prices (Valeant) and then the run-down. While their prices were high, they tried to get into the US in a big way, and that failed. That cost them about $10 million and hurt their share price, but that failure is long past. He likes it a lot at its current price. (Analysts’ price target is $6.06)

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This is a specialty pharma company. They have been focused on dermatology products, the lead being Absorbica. He’s excited by their development pipeline. They bought the Canadian assets of Cardiome and have successfully integrated them. This came with tax losses along with the pipelines. Together, they help make Cipher incredibly cheap at its current price. There was an issue with inventory of their US partner, but that has now been resolved. He expects the recovery to show good earnings momentum for the back half of this year, then the release of new products. The company has dropped from $18--it was caught up in the run-up of prescription prices (Valeant) and then the run-down. While their prices were high, they tried to get into the US in a big way, and that failed. That cost them about $10 million and hurt their share price, but that failure is long past. He likes it a lot at its current price. (Analysts’ price target is $6.06)

PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
May 15, 2018

(A Top Pick March 26, 2018. Down 16%). This initially popped higher but they preannounced a poor quarter because the market had been stuffed by a promotion. This quarter will be a little weak for the same reason but after that, it will do better. Cipher historically focused on dermatology. With their purchase of Cardiome Pharma Corp’s Canadian assets, they will now also be focused on arrhythmia and other cardiovascular conditions addressed by Cordiome’s drugs. He loves Cipher here. He thinks it is trading at half what specialty pharma companies, like Knight, sell for. He sees this as a good takeover target for Knight and sees it as a potential double.

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(A Top Pick March 26, 2018. Down 16%). This initially popped higher but they preannounced a poor quarter because the market had been stuffed by a promotion. This quarter will be a little weak for the same reason but after that, it will do better. Cipher historically focused on dermatology. With their purchase of Cardiome Pharma Corp’s Canadian assets, they will now also be focused on arrhythmia and other cardiovascular conditions addressed by Cordiome’s drugs. He loves Cipher here. He thinks it is trading at half what specialty pharma companies, like Knight, sell for. He sees this as a good takeover target for Knight and sees it as a potential double.

TOP PICK
TOP PICK
March 26, 2018

This company has been beaten down recently due to a current takeover project and he feels there has been one shareholder putting pressure on the stock. He has been buying more and would buy more.

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This company has been beaten down recently due to a current takeover project and he feels there has been one shareholder putting pressure on the stock. He has been buying more and would buy more.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
October 14, 2016

The chart is not looking good. The one thing that can be said is that it has come back to its support level. But right now it is still in a downward trend and underperforming the market. Momentum is negative. He would look elsewhere.

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The chart is not looking good. The one thing that can be said is that it has come back to its support level. But right now it is still in a downward trend and underperforming the market. Momentum is negative. He would look elsewhere.

WATCH
WATCH
March 29, 2016

A little bit early. They have built up their sales force pretty significantly over the last 6 months, so costs are higher and margins have come down quite a bit. That will continue over the next 2-3 quarters until the drugs start to gain traction. He would look to Buy once the new drug starts to gain traction.

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A little bit early. They have built up their sales force pretty significantly over the last 6 months, so costs are higher and margins have come down quite a bit. That will continue over the next 2-3 quarters until the drugs start to gain traction. He would look to Buy once the new drug starts to gain traction.

COMMENT
COMMENT
September 15, 2015

They are building a big range of products. Thinks this is a good one.

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Cipher Pharmeuticals (CPH-T)
September 15, 2015

They are building a big range of products. Thinks this is a good one.

COMMENT
COMMENT
August 5, 2015

A very lively bunch of managers who are putting on a very impressive range of productive products in the Pharma area with a pipeline of development situations. This should continue to do very well. The more products it gathers in, the more it averts a single catastrophe.

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A very lively bunch of managers who are putting on a very impressive range of productive products in the Pharma area with a pipeline of development situations. This should continue to do very well. The more products it gathers in, the more it averts a single catastrophe.

COMMENT
COMMENT
May 11, 2015

Attended a talk and was very impressed with the rack of products that they have in the pipeline. Thinks it could be very interesting in the future. He likes this.

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Attended a talk and was very impressed with the rack of products that they have in the pipeline. Thinks it could be very interesting in the future. He likes this.

COMMENT
COMMENT
April 22, 2015

Has avoided smaller pharmaceutical companies because he wears a hat as a generalist and couldn’t see the advantage he had of looking at a pharmaceutical name. Until a company gets to a specific scale where it is not taking as much drug specific risk, he would be very cautious about these names.

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Has avoided smaller pharmaceutical companies because he wears a hat as a generalist and couldn’t see the advantage he had of looking at a pharmaceutical name. Until a company gets to a specific scale where it is not taking as much drug specific risk, he would be very cautious about these names.

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