Athabasca Oil Sands Corp (ATH-T)

Has sold some shares, but still owns. At current oil price, company able to buy back shares. Debt free company that is hitting all target metrics. Great management team will good long term outlook. 

Proves the strong correlation between meaningful share buybacks and stock price performance. Not a $10 stock again, but sees $8.50 two years out.

Very well run, decades of inventory, debt free. Aggressively using free cashflow to buy back stock. A 3% weighting for him. Target price of about $7.

Correction over the past 2 months in price of oil and stocks. Price of oil has bounced back, but not the stocks. Now in a holding pattern, with support around $5.25 and resistance $5.75. He sold as he saw the correction unfold. In his universe, other energy stocks are more highly ranked right now.

Great company, would recommend buying. Cyclical due to nature of oil prices, but strong assets. 

Well run company with good assets. However, owns shares in other energy companies with higher upside. 

They were the first in this sector to reach zero debt, and they heavily bought back shares, which helped raise the share price an outperform.

He sold all shares after making huge profits. He sees 10% upside. Would buy again if shares fell a lot or if the oil price jumped.

Trades at 11% free cash flow yield. Disciplined, he sold and took profits, though realizes this could be a mistake. They have two large projects that could increase production later. Management have done a great job.

Strength in energy stocks. Higher energy prices good for bottom line. Strength in stock good for momentum investors. Expecting oil to remain above $80. 

Likes recent spin-out of assets with Cenovus Energy. Would recommend holding stock. 

Direct exposure to Canadian heave oil. Expecting stock price to increase with higher energy prices. Momentum strongest in energy stocks is May (driving season starts). Would recommend holding stock. 

Roughly 40 years of inventory. Successful at using free cashflow to pay down debt. Paying more to shareholders. 17% free cashflow next year, trades at 3.5x cashflow. WCS differential should shrink next year. Still very good upside.

Owns ~9.9% in fund.
Offers highest leverage to narrowing Canadian differential in oil price. 
40 years of Proved Reserves. 
Trading at 3x cash flow.
Expecting move to 75% return of capital.
Expecting a ~$6 share price. 
Company is now debt free.

Some companies can be very specific in outlning their plans for capital, but others stay quiet. There is no 'requirement' to disclose plans but the majority typically provide some guidance on this. As of June 30, ATH has about $80M net debt. It will likely be in a net cash position by year end. But ATH has discussed its plans. In a recent press release, it noted: the Company intends to direct a portion of free cash flow to its shareholders. The Company will assess market conditions to determine the best method to enhance shareholder returns, which could include a dividend, or share buybacks. We also note that it bought back $46M in stock in the 2Q, and $14M subsequent to the end of the quarter.
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