TSE:ATH
0.72
0.04
(5.15%)
Athabasca Oil Corporation is a Canadian energy company with a focused strategy on the development of thermal and light oil assets.
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Analysis and Opinions about ATH-T
Signal
Opinion
Expert
Chart
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
April 30, 2021
No one is looking in the small cap where there are huge opportunities. Still see meaningful upside. $60 oil means their free cashflow goes up by 10x. At $60 oil, it would generate $144M of free cashflow. Leveraged to the oil price. 54% free cashflow yield and the name would trade at a 3x multiple. Could go to $0.90 share price. At $70 oil, could go above $1.00. Must refinance debt but expects positive outcomes. There is some risk. (Analysts’ price target is $0.47)
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No one is looking in the small cap where there are huge opportunities. Still see meaningful upside. $60 oil means their free cashflow goes up by 10x. At $60 oil, it would generate $144M of free cashflow. Leveraged to the oil price. 54% free cashflow yield and the name would trade at a 3x multiple. Could go to $0.90 share price. At $70 oil, could go above $1.00. Must refinance debt but expects positive outcomes. There is some risk. (Analysts’ price target is $0.47)
BUY
BUY
March 26, 2021
Bought 9.9% of ATH at around $0.15 and now it is at $0.48. At $60 oil brings up their free cashflow by 10 times. You can generate $140M in free cashflow. Entered into deplorable hedging for the first half of this year. Need to give them a pass. Debt refinancing coming up is a huge catalyst. If they are succesful it will be a rerate in the stock. At $60 oil at 4x cashflow, it is worth $0.93 which is a 102% upside. One of the best names for oil leverage, but not for the faint of heart.
Show full opinionHide full opinionBought 9.9% of ATH at around $0.15 and now it is at $0.48. At $60 oil brings up their free cashflow by 10 times. You can generate $140M in free cashflow. Entered into deplorable hedging for the first half of this year. Need to give them a pass. Debt refinancing coming up is a huge catalyst. If they are succesful it will be a rerate in the stock. At $60 oil at 4x cashflow, it is worth $0.93 which is a 102% upside. One of the best names for oil leverage, but not for the faint of heart.
COMMENT
COMMENT
December 11, 2020
Their leverage is the sore spot for this company. They have a note coming up and they do not have the cash right now. The company is working on the debt issue and trying to unlock restricted cash. If you are a super bull on oil, then you could try but there are other names to own if you think oil will remain status quo.
Show full opinionHide full opinionTheir leverage is the sore spot for this company. They have a note coming up and they do not have the cash right now. The company is working on the debt issue and trying to unlock restricted cash. If you are a super bull on oil, then you could try but there are other names to own if you think oil will remain status quo.
WATCH
WATCH
August 6, 2020
They pushed their debt to come to term in 2022. An ultra-high torque and leverage stock. If there is an oil shortage and oil price rises to $60, it can be a great play.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThey pushed their debt to come to term in 2022. An ultra-high torque and leverage stock. If there is an oil shortage and oil price rises to $60, it can be a great play.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 19, 2020
Down 95% since recommended? This is a volatile sector and his recommendations have changed over the past year. There were many bearish issues that caused the stock to decline. Under $60 WTI they do not generate enough cash flow. They also have $450 million debt repayment due in February 2021. He can't bring himself to buy this now. There are better opportunities out there.
Show full opinionHide full opinionDown 95% since recommended? This is a volatile sector and his recommendations have changed over the past year. There were many bearish issues that caused the stock to decline. Under $60 WTI they do not generate enough cash flow. They also have $450 million debt repayment due in February 2021. He can't bring himself to buy this now. There are better opportunities out there.
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 3, 2020
ATH vs HSE vs MEG? The clear stand out is MEG, who is 55% hedged at $59 oil prices. ATH has a high cost project with Hangingstone and is burning cash, although they have enough liquidity for the next 9 months. He would never own HSE, because of their ESG issues. All bets are off for all of them if $25 oil prices remain in 2021.
ATH vs HSE vs MEG? The clear stand out is MEG, who is 55% hedged at $59 oil prices. ATH has a high cost project with Hangingstone and is burning cash, although they have enough liquidity for the next 9 months. He would never own HSE, because of their ESG issues. All bets are off for all of them if $25 oil prices remain in 2021.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
March 6, 2020
They do have a partial hedge for 2020 revenues, but they are severally challenged in this price environment -- now having negative cash flows. You have to believe in $55-$60 oil prices to see this do well -- its effectively a call option on future oil prices now.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThey do have a partial hedge for 2020 revenues, but they are severally challenged in this price environment -- now having negative cash flows. You have to believe in $55-$60 oil prices to see this do well -- its effectively a call option on future oil prices now.
SPECULATIVE BUY
SPECULATIVE BUY
February 12, 2020
A smaller cap stock, so he is a little leery. He also thinks they tried to roll out debt to 2027 that has created some headwind. If you believe in $60 this is a screaming buy, anything less than that it is questionable in its ability to generate positive cash flow. He would prefer MEG-T instead.
A smaller cap stock, so he is a little leery. He also thinks they tried to roll out debt to 2027 that has created some headwind. If you believe in $60 this is a screaming buy, anything less than that it is questionable in its ability to generate positive cash flow. He would prefer MEG-T instead.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 23, 2020
It is a heavy oil play and needs a lot of capital. They have not created any shareholder value since going public. MEG-T is a preference.
It is a heavy oil play and needs a lot of capital. They have not created any shareholder value since going public. MEG-T is a preference.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 21, 2020
You can get into it now. This must wait for the big oil names to rise, before this does. Doesn't see much downside (it's fallen so far), though it could take time for it to rise.
Show full opinionHide full opinionYou can get into it now. This must wait for the big oil names to rise, before this does. Doesn't see much downside (it's fallen so far), though it could take time for it to rise.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 16, 2020
A penny stock, so less institutional money driving it and more retail money, so more volatility. Bearish channel. Constructively positive on oil, and oil comes into season in February. This one is a small cap, so he's not as excited as he would be by a Suncor.
A penny stock, so less institutional money driving it and more retail money, so more volatility. Bearish channel. Constructively positive on oil, and oil comes into season in February. This one is a small cap, so he's not as excited as he would be by a Suncor.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 31, 2019
It's on the verge of breaking out--and he buys only breakouts, not before. Chart shows a downtrend, but if it break a trendline it is a possible buy.
Show full opinionHide full opinionIt's on the verge of breaking out--and he buys only breakouts, not before. Chart shows a downtrend, but if it break a trendline it is a possible buy.
PARTIAL SELL
PARTIAL SELL
December 19, 2019
They want shareholders to vote to free up restricted cash to potentially buy back stock next year. The key challenge for them is liquidity. There are no sellers and few buyers. If you are looking to buy a small amount, they offer fairly good torque. It is one of the best horses to pick.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThey want shareholders to vote to free up restricted cash to potentially buy back stock next year. The key challenge for them is liquidity. There are no sellers and few buyers. If you are looking to buy a small amount, they offer fairly good torque. It is one of the best horses to pick.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 10, 2019
Good, long-life production. Balance sheet is stretched, though. MEG Energy is better on the heavier oil side; it's in better shape. Problem is there are no new buyers of energy stocks. We are seeing a bit of a bounce in the past month in oil, however, which is encouraging. Don't rush out to buy ATH, but MEG, Baytex or Crescent Point. There's some risk in ATH.
Show full opinionHide full opinionGood, long-life production. Balance sheet is stretched, though. MEG Energy is better on the heavier oil side; it's in better shape. Problem is there are no new buyers of energy stocks. We are seeing a bit of a bounce in the past month in oil, however, which is encouraging. Don't rush out to buy ATH, but MEG, Baytex or Crescent Point. There's some risk in ATH.
HOLD
HOLD
November 15, 2019
He thinks there are too few energy players to make the space relevant -- and that is true for the entire space. Only the larger players will get investor interest. He sold this at $0.84 and thought that was the low. The concern he has is that they are not using free cash flow to buy shares, but that has changed. They have taken down a field for maintenance and it is not producer like before -- he has to research this further.
Show full opinionHide full opinionHe thinks there are too few energy players to make the space relevant -- and that is true for the entire space. Only the larger players will get investor interest. He sold this at $0.84 and thought that was the low. The concern he has is that they are not using free cash flow to buy shares, but that has changed. They have taken down a field for maintenance and it is not producer like before -- he has to research this further.
Athabasca Oil Sands Corp(ATH-T) Rating
Ranking : 3 out of 5
Bullish - Buy Signals / Votes : 1
Neutral - Hold Signals / Votes : 0
Bearish - Sell Signals / Votes : 1
Total Signals / Votes : 2
Athabasca Oil Sands Corp(ATH-T) Frequently Asked Questions
What is Athabasca Oil Sands Corp stock symbol?
Athabasca Oil Sands Corp is a Canadian stock, trading under the symbol ATH-T on the Toronto Stock Exchange (ATH-CT). It is usually referred to as TSX:ATH or ATH-T
Is Athabasca Oil Sands Corp a buy or a sell?
In the last year, 2 stock analysts published opinions about ATH-T. 1 analyst recommended to BUY the stock. 1 analyst recommended to SELL the stock. The latest stock analyst recommendation is TOP PICK. Read the latest stock experts' ratings for Athabasca Oil Sands Corp.
Is Athabasca Oil Sands Corp a good investment or a top pick?
Athabasca Oil Sands Corp was recommended as a Top Pick by Eric Nuttall on 2021-04-30. Read the latest stock experts ratings for Athabasca Oil Sands Corp.
Why is Athabasca Oil Sands Corp stock dropping?
Earnings reports or recent company news can cause the stock price to drop. Read stock experts’ recommendations for help on deciding if you should buy, sell or hold the stock.
Is Athabasca Oil Sands Corp worth watching?
2 stock analysts on Stockchase covered Athabasca Oil Sands Corp In the last year. It is a trending stock that is worth watching.
What is Athabasca Oil Sands Corp stock price?
On 2021-05-14, Athabasca Oil Sands Corp (ATH-T) stock closed at a price of $0.715.
