Athabasca Oil Sands Corp

ATH-T

TSE:ATH

0.49
0.01 (1.01%)
Athabasca Oil Corporation is a Canadian energy company with a focused strategy on the development of thermal and light oil assets.
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Analysis and Opinions about ATH-T

Signal
Opinion
Expert
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 21, 2020
You can get into it now. This must wait for the big oil names to rise, before this does. Doesn't see much downside (it's fallen so far), though it could take time for it to rise.
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You can get into it now. This must wait for the big oil names to rise, before this does. Doesn't see much downside (it's fallen so far), though it could take time for it to rise.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 16, 2020
A penny stock, so less institutional money driving it and more retail money, so more volatility. Bearish channel. Constructively positive on oil, and oil comes into season in February. This one is a small cap, so he's not as excited as he would be by a Suncor.
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A penny stock, so less institutional money driving it and more retail money, so more volatility. Bearish channel. Constructively positive on oil, and oil comes into season in February. This one is a small cap, so he's not as excited as he would be by a Suncor.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 31, 2019
It's on the verge of breaking out--and he buys only breakouts, not before. Chart shows a downtrend, but if it break a trendline it is a possible buy.
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It's on the verge of breaking out--and he buys only breakouts, not before. Chart shows a downtrend, but if it break a trendline it is a possible buy.
PARTIAL SELL
PARTIAL SELL
December 19, 2019
They want shareholders to vote to free up restricted cash to potentially buy back stock next year. The key challenge for them is liquidity. There are no sellers and few buyers. If you are looking to buy a small amount, they offer fairly good torque. It is one of the best horses to pick.
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They want shareholders to vote to free up restricted cash to potentially buy back stock next year. The key challenge for them is liquidity. There are no sellers and few buyers. If you are looking to buy a small amount, they offer fairly good torque. It is one of the best horses to pick.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 10, 2019
Good, long-life production. Balance sheet is stretched, though. MEG Energy is better on the heavier oil side; it's in better shape. Problem is there are no new buyers of energy stocks. We are seeing a bit of a bounce in the past month in oil, however, which is encouraging. Don't rush out to buy ATH, but MEG, Baytex or Crescent Point. There's some risk in ATH.
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Good, long-life production. Balance sheet is stretched, though. MEG Energy is better on the heavier oil side; it's in better shape. Problem is there are no new buyers of energy stocks. We are seeing a bit of a bounce in the past month in oil, however, which is encouraging. Don't rush out to buy ATH, but MEG, Baytex or Crescent Point. There's some risk in ATH.
HOLD
HOLD
November 15, 2019
He thinks there are too few energy players to make the space relevant -- and that is true for the entire space. Only the larger players will get investor interest. He sold this at $0.84 and thought that was the low. The concern he has is that they are not using free cash flow to buy shares, but that has changed. They have taken down a field for maintenance and it is not producer like before -- he has to research this further.
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He thinks there are too few energy players to make the space relevant -- and that is true for the entire space. Only the larger players will get investor interest. He sold this at $0.84 and thought that was the low. The concern he has is that they are not using free cash flow to buy shares, but that has changed. They have taken down a field for maintenance and it is not producer like before -- he has to research this further.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
October 11, 2019
The market cap has become too small for a large fund manager to follow anymore. He sold around $0.82 and it continued to sell off much lower. That scared him about the liquidity. He would need to see $60 WTI and $15 heavy oil differentials to be able to generate enough free cash flow to excite him back in. On top of that, their JV in Duvernay will require more capital outlay soon. He would look elsewhere.
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The market cap has become too small for a large fund manager to follow anymore. He sold around $0.82 and it continued to sell off much lower. That scared him about the liquidity. He would need to see $60 WTI and $15 heavy oil differentials to be able to generate enough free cash flow to excite him back in. On top of that, their JV in Duvernay will require more capital outlay soon. He would look elsewhere.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
October 11, 2019
(A Top Pick Oct 19/18, Down 63%) Unfortunately the market cap has become too small for the big institutional investors to be interested in this. He expects the dividend paying energy stocks would rebound well before this one does.
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(A Top Pick Oct 19/18, Down 63%) Unfortunately the market cap has become too small for the big institutional investors to be interested in this. He expects the dividend paying energy stocks would rebound well before this one does.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
August 30, 2019
(A Top Pick Aug 17/18, Down 61%) He sold it and bought Cenovus. There's no demand for micro-caps which ATH sadly has become. Their cash flow goes up the most if WCS differentials stay low. To own this, you must believe in $60 WTI or $15 or less differentials. Also, ATh didn't want to buyback shares, which he disagrees with. It now trades near all-time lows.
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(A Top Pick Aug 17/18, Down 61%) He sold it and bought Cenovus. There's no demand for micro-caps which ATH sadly has become. Their cash flow goes up the most if WCS differentials stay low. To own this, you must believe in $60 WTI or $15 or less differentials. Also, ATh didn't want to buyback shares, which he disagrees with. It now trades near all-time lows.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
July 19, 2019

(A Top Pick Jul 20/18, Down 58%) A small-cap oil stock, but nobody is buying small-cap oil. They are the most levered to a rising oil price or a compressing WCS oil price differential. Their outlook is good, but the market isn't buying. He sold this and bought Cenovus and Whitecap Resources.

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(A Top Pick Jul 20/18, Down 58%) A small-cap oil stock, but nobody is buying small-cap oil. They are the most levered to a rising oil price or a compressing WCS oil price differential. Their outlook is good, but the market isn't buying. He sold this and bought Cenovus and Whitecap Resources.

WATCH
WATCH
July 17, 2019
He does not currently own this. They have a billion dollar joint venture to explore the Duvernay and a similar venture with Statoil and also in thermal development. This may be creating some angst with investors. He is watching this to see how this develops, but is not ready to step in yet.
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He does not currently own this. They have a billion dollar joint venture to explore the Duvernay and a similar venture with Statoil and also in thermal development. This may be creating some angst with investors. He is watching this to see how this develops, but is not ready to step in yet.
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 26, 2019
ATH-T is a prior top pick that he sold about a month ago to buy CPG-T (who has been buying back shares on free cash-flow). He has concerns over ATH-T liquidity in the market and he held heavy oil exposure in other bigger names. ATH-T has done well to deleverage their balance sheet.
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ATH-T is a prior top pick that he sold about a month ago to buy CPG-T (who has been buying back shares on free cash-flow). He has concerns over ATH-T liquidity in the market and he held heavy oil exposure in other bigger names. ATH-T has done well to deleverage their balance sheet.
BUY
BUY
March 8, 2019
If you believe in $60 oil or higher, this offers the highest leverage of any name. If you believe in $55 or lower, you do not want to own this. This company is very sensitive to oil price and oil differential. Negative cash flow at $55 oil and positive cash flow at $60 oil. If Line 3 does come on next year, and oil by rail ramps up, and if get positive resolution to Keystone or trans mountain, this could be a double or triple.
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If you believe in $60 oil or higher, this offers the highest leverage of any name. If you believe in $55 or lower, you do not want to own this. This company is very sensitive to oil price and oil differential. Negative cash flow at $55 oil and positive cash flow at $60 oil. If Line 3 does come on next year, and oil by rail ramps up, and if get positive resolution to Keystone or trans mountain, this could be a double or triple.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 25, 2019
He thinks WCS will stabilize at $17 discount to WTI for the next few years. If you see Line 3 being completed this year and rail filling the gap, this company offers a tremendous leverage to tightening WCS. Their debt levels have been cut sharply. At $55 WTI, this company generates massive cash flow. At $80 WTI and $20 WCS discount, his target is $4.13 for the stock price. At $70 it is $2.67 per share. You can see the leverage.
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He thinks WCS will stabilize at $17 discount to WTI for the next few years. If you see Line 3 being completed this year and rail filling the gap, this company offers a tremendous leverage to tightening WCS. Their debt levels have been cut sharply. At $55 WTI, this company generates massive cash flow. At $80 WTI and $20 WCS discount, his target is $4.13 for the stock price. At $70 it is $2.67 per share. You can see the leverage.
BUY
BUY
December 14, 2018
When MEG-T is gone, ATH-T will be the highest levered company to tightening heavy differentials. They trade on 11 times cash flow and that can fall to 4.5 times with a tighter heavy differential. He sees heavy differentials at $20. He sees a target of $2.67 in share price. He is the second largest shareholder in this company. (Analysts’ price target is $2.16)
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When MEG-T is gone, ATH-T will be the highest levered company to tightening heavy differentials. They trade on 11 times cash flow and that can fall to 4.5 times with a tighter heavy differential. He sees heavy differentials at $20. He sees a target of $2.67 in share price. He is the second largest shareholder in this company. (Analysts’ price target is $2.16)
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