Buy, Sell or Hold: Athabasca Oil Sands Corp (ATH-T) — Stock Predictions at Stockchase

TSE:ATH

2.13

0.01 (0.47%) 1d

Showing 1 to 15 of 206 entries

BUY

Is largest shareholder in the company (~50 million share). Expecting debt to be paid down in the next few months. Trading at ~30% free cash flow yield and ~1.8x. Massive tax pools providing large amount of value. Expecting a $5 share price.

oil / gas

BUY on WEAKNESS

Volatile share price with high exposure to energy prices. Operations are high cost (Duvernay shale & heavy oil sands operations). Assets have a lot of operating leverage. If oil prices drop, share price will fall quickly (large amount of torque).

oil / gas

BUY

Has bought more shares in the company (55 million shares or 9.6%). Seeing meaningful upside in the company. Expecting company to be debt free by the end of the year. Currently trading at ~2x cash flow and 26% free cash flow yield. Company should be returning capital back to shareholders (dividends and share buybacks). 5x multiple would value the company at around $5 share price.

oil / gas

BUY

Bought at $0.18 and sold at $1.32 (currently trading ~$2.00). Lesson in selling too early. Matt Taylor (CFO) is excellent at selling company. Currently trading at 46% free cash flow yield ($100 oil). Should be trading around $4.00 share price ($100 oil). Paying down debt and production hedged.

oil / gas

BUY

Company has extremely high torque to oil price given financial structure of company. Is a good long term hold. Absolute valuation of the company remains undervalued. Valuation relative to other Canadian energy companies is fair.

oil / gas

BUY

They had finance fears for their notes that were due. Now they have good leverage to rising prices. You are buying for the oil sands assets. Now, they also have huge tax losses that can be useful. Selling at 1x free cashflow if you give value to the tax losses. There is still good upside and is still a meaningful shareholder.

oil / gas

TOP PICK

The re-financing got done successfully. Now they plan to be debt free in one year. Becoming a more popular model in small caps to finance with banks like they did. They will raise dividends in 2023. They are sitting on $2.4B on high value tax losses that can be valuable for an acquirer. Stock is trading at 1.5x free cash flow right now. Still sees upside. (Analysts’ price target is $1.31)

oil / gas

RISKY BUY

Higher debt leverage, high operating costs. SU, CNQ or CVE have much more sustainable, quality profits. If oil goes higher, you'll make more money with this one. But understand that it's a riskier bet. If things go down, this type of stock will really crater.

oil / gas

BUY

Bought at 0.18 cents and the stock has rallied. Bought it for rerating in cashflow. Stock has worked out well. The next catalyst is to refinance debt that is due February of next year. The notes are trading at 0.98 cents which means the bond market thinks it will get refinanced. Positive catalyst for the shares.

oil / gas

BUY

It was the banks that had forced small and mid-caps with horrendous hedges. Now they have rolled off. Bought 9.9% off Equinor. With Cardinal, this gives you the highest leverage to the rising oil price. Will probably be successful with renewing their notes. If you buy, you are betting that this will go well. Could trade at 4x multiple.

oil / gas

BUY

Could buy up to 10% outstanding shares at current cashflow and pay 4-7% dividend. The issue for them is refinancing their note due February of next year at $450M USD. At $50 oil, they were generating $14M in free cashflow, at $70 it is $274M free cashflow which is 70% free cashflow yield. Remains one of the highest leverage to higher oil prices.

oil / gas

TOP PICK

No one is looking in the small cap where there are huge opportunities. Still see meaningful upside. $60 oil means their free cashflow goes up by 10x. At $60 oil, it would generate $144M of free cashflow. Leveraged to the oil price. 54% free cashflow yield and the name would trade at a 3x multiple. Could go to $0.90 share price. At $70 oil, could go above $1.00. Must refinance debt but expects positive outcomes. There is some risk. (Analysts’ price target is $0.47)

oil / gas

BUY

Bought 9.9% of ATH at around $0.15 and now it is at $0.48. At $60 oil brings up their free cashflow by 10 times. You can generate $140M in free cashflow. Entered into deplorable hedging for the first half of this year. Need to give them a pass. Debt refinancing coming up is a huge catalyst. If they are succesful it will be a rerate in the stock. At $60 oil at 4x cashflow, it is worth $0.93 which is a 102% upside. One of the best names for oil leverage, but not for the faint of heart.

oil / gas

COMMENT

Their leverage is the sore spot for this company. They have a note coming up and they do not have the cash right now. The company is working on the debt issue and trying to unlock restricted cash. If you are a super bull on oil, then you could try but there are other names to own if you think oil will remain status quo.

oil / gas

WATCH

They pushed their debt to come to term in 2022. An ultra-high torque and leverage stock. If there is an oil shortage and oil price rises to $60, it can be a great play.

oil / gas

Showing 1 to 15 of 206 entries

Athabasca Oil Sands Corp(ATH-T) Rating

Ranking : 5 out of 5

Bullish - Buy Signals / Votes : 7

Neutral - Hold Signals / Votes : 0

Bearish - Sell Signals / Votes : 0

Total Signals / Votes : 7

Stockchase rating for Athabasca Oil Sands Corp is calculated according to the stock experts' signals. A high score means experts mostly recommend to buy the stock while a low score means experts mostly recommend to sell the stock.

Athabasca Oil Sands Corp(ATH-T) Frequently Asked Questions

What is Athabasca Oil Sands Corp stock symbol?

Athabasca Oil Sands Corp is a Canadian stock, trading under the symbol ATH-T on the Toronto Stock Exchange (ATH-CT). It is usually referred to as TSX:ATH or ATH-T

Is Athabasca Oil Sands Corp a buy or a sell?

In the last year, 7 stock analysts published opinions about ATH-T. 7 analysts recommended to BUY the stock. 0 analysts recommended to SELL the stock. The latest stock analyst recommendation is . Read the latest stock experts' ratings for Athabasca Oil Sands Corp.

Is Athabasca Oil Sands Corp a good investment or a top pick?

Athabasca Oil Sands Corp was recommended as a Top Pick by on . Read the latest stock experts ratings for Athabasca Oil Sands Corp.

Why is Athabasca Oil Sands Corp stock dropping?

Earnings reports or recent company news can cause the stock price to drop. Read stock experts’ recommendations for help on deciding if you should buy, sell or hold the stock.

Is Athabasca Oil Sands Corp worth watching?

7 stock analysts on Stockchase covered Athabasca Oil Sands Corp In the last year. It is a trending stock that is worth watching.

What is Athabasca Oil Sands Corp stock price?

On 2022-09-30, Athabasca Oil Sands Corp (ATH-T) stock closed at a price of $2.13.

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