Buy, Sell or Hold: Athabasca Oil Sands Corp (ATH-T) — Stock Predictions at Stockchase

TSE:ATH

1.24

0.08 (6.06%) 1d

Showing 1 to 15 of 201 entries

BUY

They had finance fears for their notes that were due. Now they have good leverage to rising prices. You are buying for the oil sands assets. Now, they also have huge tax losses that can be useful. Selling at 1x free cashflow if you give value to the tax losses. There is still good upside and is still a meaningful shareholder.

oil / gas

TOP PICK

The re-financing got done successfully. Now they plan to be debt free in one year. Becoming a more popular model in small caps to finance with banks like they did. They will raise dividends in 2023. They are sitting on $2.4B on high value tax losses that can be valuable for an acquirer. Stock is trading at 1.5x free cash flow right now. Still sees upside. (Analysts’ price target is $1.31)

oil / gas

RISKY BUY

Higher debt leverage, high operating costs. SU, CNQ or CVE have much more sustainable, quality profits. If oil goes higher, you'll make more money with this one. But understand that it's a riskier bet. If things go down, this type of stock will really crater.

oil / gas

BUY

Bought at 0.18 cents and the stock has rallied. Bought it for rerating in cashflow. Stock has worked out well. The next catalyst is to refinance debt that is due February of next year. The notes are trading at 0.98 cents which means the bond market thinks it will get refinanced. Positive catalyst for the shares.

oil / gas

BUY

It was the banks that had forced small and mid-caps with horrendous hedges. Now they have rolled off. Bought 9.9% off Equinor. With Cardinal, this gives you the highest leverage to the rising oil price. Will probably be successful with renewing their notes. If you buy, you are betting that this will go well. Could trade at 4x multiple.

oil / gas

BUY

Could buy up to 10% outstanding shares at current cashflow and pay 4-7% dividend. The issue for them is refinancing their note due February of next year at $450M USD. At $50 oil, they were generating $14M in free cashflow, at $70 it is $274M free cashflow which is 70% free cashflow yield. Remains one of the highest leverage to higher oil prices.

oil / gas

TOP PICK

No one is looking in the small cap where there are huge opportunities. Still see meaningful upside. $60 oil means their free cashflow goes up by 10x. At $60 oil, it would generate $144M of free cashflow. Leveraged to the oil price. 54% free cashflow yield and the name would trade at a 3x multiple. Could go to $0.90 share price. At $70 oil, could go above $1.00. Must refinance debt but expects positive outcomes. There is some risk. (Analysts’ price target is $0.47)

oil / gas

BUY

Bought 9.9% of ATH at around $0.15 and now it is at $0.48. At $60 oil brings up their free cashflow by 10 times. You can generate $140M in free cashflow. Entered into deplorable hedging for the first half of this year. Need to give them a pass. Debt refinancing coming up is a huge catalyst. If they are succesful it will be a rerate in the stock. At $60 oil at 4x cashflow, it is worth $0.93 which is a 102% upside. One of the best names for oil leverage, but not for the faint of heart.

oil / gas

COMMENT

Their leverage is the sore spot for this company. They have a note coming up and they do not have the cash right now. The company is working on the debt issue and trying to unlock restricted cash. If you are a super bull on oil, then you could try but there are other names to own if you think oil will remain status quo.

oil / gas

WATCH

They pushed their debt to come to term in 2022. An ultra-high torque and leverage stock. If there is an oil shortage and oil price rises to $60, it can be a great play.

oil / gas

DON'T BUY

Down 95% since recommended? This is a volatile sector and his recommendations have changed over the past year. There were many bearish issues that caused the stock to decline. Under $60 WTI they do not generate enough cash flow. They also have $450 million debt repayment due in February 2021. He can't bring himself to buy this now. There are better opportunities out there.

oil / gas

COMMENT

ATH vs HSE vs MEG? The clear stand out is MEG, who is 55% hedged at $59 oil prices. ATH has a high cost project with Hangingstone and is burning cash, although they have enough liquidity for the next 9 months. He would never own HSE, because of their ESG issues. All bets are off for all of them if $25 oil prices remain in 2021.

oil / gas

DON'T BUY

They do have a partial hedge for 2020 revenues, but they are severally challenged in this price environment -- now having negative cash flows. You have to believe in $55-$60 oil prices to see this do well -- its effectively a call option on future oil prices now.

oil / gas

RISKY BUY

A smaller cap stock, so he is a little leery. He also thinks they tried to roll out debt to 2027 that has created some headwind. If you believe in $60 this is a screaming buy, anything less than that it is questionable in its ability to generate positive cash flow. He would prefer MEG-T instead.

oil / gas

DON'T BUY

It is a heavy oil play and needs a lot of capital. They have not created any shareholder value since going public. MEG-T is a preference.

oil / gas

Showing 1 to 15 of 201 entries

Athabasca Oil Sands Corp(ATH-T) Rating

Ranking : 5 out of 5

Bullish - Buy Signals / Votes : 6

Neutral - Hold Signals / Votes : 0

Bearish - Sell Signals / Votes : 0

Total Signals / Votes : 6

Stockchase rating for Athabasca Oil Sands Corp is calculated according to the stock experts' signals. A high score means experts mostly recommend to buy the stock while a low score means experts mostly recommend to sell the stock.

Athabasca Oil Sands Corp(ATH-T) Frequently Asked Questions

What is Athabasca Oil Sands Corp stock symbol?

Athabasca Oil Sands Corp is a Canadian stock, trading under the symbol ATH-T on the Toronto Stock Exchange (ATH-CT). It is usually referred to as TSX:ATH or ATH-T

Is Athabasca Oil Sands Corp a buy or a sell?

In the last year, 6 stock analysts published opinions about ATH-T. 6 analysts recommended to BUY the stock. 0 analysts recommended to SELL the stock. The latest stock analyst recommendation is . Read the latest stock experts' ratings for Athabasca Oil Sands Corp.

Is Athabasca Oil Sands Corp a good investment or a top pick?

Athabasca Oil Sands Corp was recommended as a Top Pick by on . Read the latest stock experts ratings for Athabasca Oil Sands Corp.

Why is Athabasca Oil Sands Corp stock dropping?

Earnings reports or recent company news can cause the stock price to drop. Read stock experts’ recommendations for help on deciding if you should buy, sell or hold the stock.

Is Athabasca Oil Sands Corp worth watching?

6 stock analysts on Stockchase covered Athabasca Oil Sands Corp In the last year. It is a trending stock that is worth watching.

What is Athabasca Oil Sands Corp stock price?

On 2022-01-21, Athabasca Oil Sands Corp (ATH-T) stock closed at a price of $1.24.

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