Opinions The Panic-Proof Portfolio (Stockchase Research)
Microsoft CorpMSFTTOP PICKAug 07, 2025
Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jul 16, 2026. Market Open.
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Buy it, put it away for 10 years, do very well. Suffering from software outflows from large ETFs. Revenue still growing in teens, even better on EPS. Investing a lot in capacity (buy they can afford it), which customers have signed onto for the next several years. Trades at 20x PE, yet nothing's really changed.
Trade it. Has a great base around $370. Now, it's bouncing above support again. His target sell price is $440-450. It could possibly reach $500 though.
(Analysts’ price target is $559.56)
Keith RichardsDragged lower on fears that AI will destroy its business model. Putting AI solutions into products, and that will drive upside. His firm deals in 3-5 year holds (if something's broken, they sell). A multi-year grind higher. Yield is 0.94%.
(Analysts’ price target is $559.56)
Darren SissonsThree durable growth engines: Azure, enterprise software, AI monetization. Key is that it keeps turning its installed base into higher-value subscriptions and usage-based revenue, while preserving margins and cash generation. Market's concerned that margins and cash will be pressured as Gen AI gets rolled out through competitors.
Azure remains the clearest growth driver. Key competitive advantage with enterprise software is that one stack bundles infrastructure, security, identity, and data/productivity tools. Raises costs to switch, which provides pricing power. Yield is 0.93%.
Is a core holding. It faces AI takeover fears of their software. He disagrees fully. All he uses is Microsoft and chatGPT, MSFT is protected and is a fine company. Has strong cash flow and can endure a long time. Expects it to rebound.
Bruce Murray
Down 25% this year though the QQQ is up 15% because the chip stocks have become a bigger weighting. MSFT is not executing and pivoting on a daily basis. Co-Pilot has gone from openAI to Anthropic and now Deep Seek. MSFT is still figuring it out. Co-Pilot is still not great.
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Premium contentOur PAST TOP PICK with MSFT has triggered its stop at $360. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. When combined with previous guidance, this will result in a net investment loss of 11%.
Very much likes. The 800-pound gorilla since he was a boy ;) Manages to morph and adapt, even when it makes a mistake (like missing the entire internet in the 1990s). Still has the bandwidth to expand and take over a sector.
Brendan CaldwellIt's fallen a fair bit recently over concerns of their spending and them having software in the time of AI. He doesn't expect AI to replace their software. Trades at 18x PE. It's underestimated now like Google was last year.
(Analysts’ price target is $561.39)
Paul Harris, CFAThe lower MSFT gets, the more he likes it. The valuation keeps falling. He recently bought a position and would add to it now. If it holds, that's a very good technical signal. He loves MSFT, but consider that France will forbid the government using Microsoft Teams. That said, MSFT isn't going anywhere.
Premium contentIn the last quarter, the company reported 4.27 USD per share, beating the 4.06 USD estimate by 5.18%. Revenue for the same period reached 82.89 B USD, despite the estimate of 81.44 B USD. For the next quarter, analysts expect 4.24 USD in earnings per share and 87.61 B USD in revenue. Social media mentions are up 109% in the past 24h.
His preference is MSFT, and he'd buy today. Valuation is ~20x PE -- very fair valuation for business with good outlook for earnings growth for next 3-5 years. A bit more value than AMZN right now. Business model supports a better compounding over the long run, and generates significantly more FCF. Late to the AI race, and that's the reason for the selloff.
No issues with AMZN. Very well run, targeting new markets. You can't own all the tech companies, so you have to pick your spots.
Chris Blumas
One has to look past its high valuation as it trades at 38x earnings and 11x book, but with a ROE of 33% it demonstrates its dominance in the space. Recently reported earnings beat analysts estimates for revenues (by 4%) and EPS (by 9%). Cash reserves are growing, while shares are aggressively bought back and debt is retired. Management reports its strategy to cloud computing and AI are yielding good returns. We continue to recommend a stop at $453, looking to achieve $607 -- upside potential of 16%. Yield 0.6%
(Analysts’ price target is $606.61)