B2Gold Corp. (BTO-T)

Longtime shareholder and friend of founder/CEO. Behind schedule and over budget on mine in northern Canada. Very remote location, logistically challenged. If that can get resolved, expects stock to be much higher. Stock's extremely cheap from a sum-of-the-parts point of view, but there is completion risk (which, ironically, you can't quantify until you complete the project). Market has overstated that risk. 

Rest of company's in fairly good shape. Punished because main asset is in Mali, lots of political turmoil.

He owns about 50% gold, but the seniors. This is a junior. There could be a catchup trade. But he wouldn't buy this one until it breaks out.

This and Barrick have an overhang regarding Mali. He expects a 10% correction in both names coming. Technically, they look weak, The chart shows a bigger downtrend.

Two problems with the stock. A construction project is over budget and behind. Plus, most of free cashflow comes from a wonderful mine in unstable and dangerous Mali. His average cost is much lower than currently trading.

This name is further down the food chain. Take a look at the more interesting mid-size players. Still, he's been lightening up on gold. With a strong USD, and interest rates possibly being higher, gold may take a few steps back. So he's waiting to see how things shake out.

Its Capex is exceeding its cash flow but there is no net debt and the dividend is secure. In general the cost of producing an ounce of gold is way up over the last 20 years. The strong U.S. dollar has put downward pressure on gold.

Doesn't fall company closely. Gold prices very strong (all time high), but company hasn't moved upwards with strong gold prices. Risky company with shaky assets. Better options available for gold investors in royalty companies. 

The 4% dividend is sustainable. Can grow around 10%. Is highly diversified. The next leg of growth comes from their Sabina asset. Not a large cap gold stock, but will see far better upside, leveraged to the gold price. Is some execution risk in their northern Canada project (due to extreme weather). Are fully financed and the balance sheet is solid.

Most gold stocks looked good till recently. Support broken. Probably oversold, so may have a bounce. Not today, but maybe soon. The old support level has to be broken before you can get bullish on it. A trade, not an investment.

Weakness in share price not a reflection of rising gold prices. Stock trading a multi-decade low. Cost issues, and inflation a challenge for the business. Current valuation presenting a buying opportunity. When gold stocks begin to rally, it will be initiated by a series of interest rate cuts by US Fed. Good time to buy. 

Based on the chart - looks like stock has support. Would recommend buying based on bullish gold thesis. 

Symptom of the space. Very good executors, diversified asset base. Trades at a premium, so the bloom comes off when sentiment turns. Attractive yield around 4%, that's why he owns it. Recent acquisition will be additive by 2025.

EPS of $0.05 missed expectations of $0.0656 and revenues of $477.89M missed expectations of $484.68M. Gold production was 242.8K ounces in the quarter, with expectations of an increase in Q4. Its AISC were lower than annual guidance ranges, which is a positive, and its Goose project construction was on budget. It remains on track to meet its 2023 total gold production forecast, Its gross profit improved significantly, however, it incurred higher operating expenses due to impairments and foreign exchange losses. Its cash from operations remains strong and its balance sheet is in good shape. This was an OK quarter, and we feel much will depend on the price of gold, although production is moving in the right direction.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

We have tended to lean towards large caps, such as AEM. We think KRR and AGI are also buys. BTO is a fairly large cap, offering good value at only 10X earnings with a 4.7% dividend. The balance sheet is very solid with $500M cash. We like it, but consensus calls for very low growth in the next two years, and EPS is still down from 2020 levels. So buyers need to have some patience. The last quarter was OK. NGG has outperformed BTO, and also has cash (only $35M though). But it is not yet producing so is still losing money, with negative cash flow. While we think it has potential, at this time we would prefer producers, taking comfort in the ongoing cash flow in a tough environment vs owning a developer still burning cash. 
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

Own shares in company.
Adding more shares recently. 
Looking ahead - sees opportunity.