Stockchase Insights B2Gold Corp. BTO-T RISKY Nov 10, 2023

The 4% dividend is sustainable. Can grow around 10%. Is highly diversified. The next leg of growth comes from their Sabina asset. Not a large cap gold stock, but will see far better upside, leveraged to the gold price. Is some execution risk in their northern Canada project (due to extreme weather). Are fully financed and the balance sheet is solid.

Doesn't fall company closely. Gold prices very strong (all time high), but company hasn't moved upwards with strong gold prices. Risky company with shaky assets. Better options available for gold investors in royalty companies. 

Its Capex is exceeding its cash flow but there is no net debt and the dividend is secure. In general the cost of producing an ounce of gold is way up over the last 20 years. The strong U.S. dollar has put downward pressure on gold.

This name is further down the food chain. Take a look at the more interesting mid-size players. Still, he's been lightening up on gold. With a strong USD, and interest rates possibly being higher, gold may take a few steps back. So he's waiting to see how things shake out.

Two problems with the stock. A construction project is over budget and behind. Plus, most of free cashflow comes from a wonderful mine in unstable and dangerous Mali. His average cost is much lower than currently trading.

This and Barrick have an overhang regarding Mali. He expects a 10% correction in both names coming. Technically, they look weak, The chart shows a bigger downtrend.

He owns about 50% gold, but the seniors. This is a junior. There could be a catchup trade. But he wouldn't buy this one until it breaks out.

Longtime shareholder and friend of founder/CEO. Behind schedule and over budget on mine in northern Canada. Very remote location, logistically challenged. If that can get resolved, expects stock to be much higher. Stock's extremely cheap from a sum-of-the-parts point of view, but there is completion risk (which, ironically, you can't quantify until you complete the project). Market has overstated that risk. 

Rest of company's in fairly good shape. Punished because main asset is in Mali, lots of political turmoil.

Gold should at least maintain these levels due to central bank buying. Underappreciated by the market, as everyone was worried about geopolitical risk. Growth is coming on in less risky areas, including in Canada. Discount to NAV. Good operators. Yield is 2.28%.

It has made a big recovery along with the sector, and is now up 66% YTD. It remains very cheap at 7X earnings with a 1.97% dividend. The balance sheet is solid. Very good earnings growth is expected this year, but is expected to flatline (based on consensus) next year. Cash flow is good, but the last quarter was a bit mixed. All in, it has improved fundamentally, and investors are looking at it again. It is priced well, but would still not be amongst our favorites in the sector. 
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