Stockchase Opinions

John Zechner Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce CM-T PARTIAL SELL Dec 02, 2024

Taking some profit in the past 2 days as a short-term call coming into earnings. Bank valuations are at high end of traditional range. Concerned about earnings growth going forward. Canadian economy has issues. 

$90.360

Stock price when the opinion was issued

banks
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DON'T BUY
CM vs. BMO

He'd pick BMO. All Canadian banks are in solid financial position for the most part, attractive yields, stable earnings.

WEAK BUY

Hesitant on Canadian banking space in general. Mortgage reset date of 2025 hasn't happened yet, with its impact on consumer. Bulk of the bad news hasn't been taken into consideration yet. 

Market bias toward domestic-centric banks right now, so they're doing well. If she had to pick a Canadian-centred bank, she'd pick this one.

BUY

It's been at a discount from all its peers but that is eroding due to them beating earnings. His preferred Canadian bank.

HOLD

A leader in the group, stick with it.

BUY

If you're in a bull market, you want to own the strongest stocks you can find. He prefers "good, getting better", some kind of positive change that could add to the valuation, and where other people agree with him. He owns RY, CM, and NA; firing on all cylinders.

HOLD
Recently retired investor has 14% of portfolio in this name, looking to trim.

Make sure it stays above $86. A range of $5 is not going to break the bank ;)  But $86 is where you might want to start trimming and looking at some of the underperforming banks such as TD. He can't imagine TD will stay in its current situation forever. This strategy will also add to your diversification. But be cautious selling, because it's on a nice upswing.

This type of stock is not going to drop from $91 to $50 on a single announcement, it's a lot more predictable than that.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 20/23, Up 103%)

It was undervalued, forgotten. Management has done a great job. Shares remain cheap as it pays a 4% dividend. Still likes it and would buy it now.

HOLD
Sell CM to buy RY?

Taking less on credit provisions than other banks. Positive: credit situation better than others. Negative: taking more risk and, if wrong, stock would be penalized. Canada-centric. Exposed to residential mortgages and commercial real estate in Canada; two iffy sectors, but doing better than expected. Good earnings and good asset management. 

Don't sell. Trading more cheaply than RY. RY commands a premium price for a premium asset.

WEAK BUY

Used to have a habit of running into sharp objects, but CEO has turned this around. Warrants consideration. Great domestic personal and commercial business, capital markets, and wealth management. Modest presence in US, and has stayed out of trouble there.

If you already own NA and RY, consider TD or BMO before this one. But if you're going to add 2 more banks to your portfolio, no quarrels with adding this one.