Chartwell Retirement Residences (CSH.UN-T)

Excellent company performance. Post Covid-19 recovery has been very strong. Business continues to remain strong. Will continue to own. Expecting earnings to continue growing. M&A has also been very strong. 

Tremendous job filling units since pandemic, occupancy back to near 90%. Leading edge of baby boomer population starting to access this type of product. Discount to NAV. Making great accretive acquisitions, so he expects NAV growth. Great product, high-margin business. Yield is 3.9%.

A high-quality company in seniors living, benefiting from aging demographics. Same-location growth is impressive. The stock's momentum can continue. A caveat: the retirement space is vulnerable to disruption, given that no senior looks forward to entering a retirement home. But seniors are healthier now and they have more options. This trend will continue. So competition could enter this space, not now, but in the future. And yes, CSH is attractive to a private buyer. It's possible.

EXE operates long-term care facilities which require a lot of capital, while CSH is more senior homes. CSH has been divesting lower-return investments to become more of a pure-play. You can charge whatever rent in a market if there's no competition. The seniors' population keeps growing. CSH is paying down debt, which was high a few years ago. In CSH, the easy money has been made, though. It could be a keeper, or take profits.

It was just too cheap before and there is a return to occupancy post Covid. With good M&A it is still growing but down a bit.

Likes this space, because there's a shortage of beds for the elderly. Costs have already been spent to avoid the major problems companies like this faced during Covid. CSH can continue to increase beds, but also offer living spaces and companionship to the elderly when they move out of their homes into CSH facilities. There remains a shortage of beds, so there's good growth ahead. Also, regulatory changes won't be rapid like they were during Covid, should they occur.

Story's played itself out halfway. Accretive acquisition in June, which enhances quality and lowers age of its portfolio by about 3 years. Still bullish on seniors housing. Further gains from occupancy and rent increases. Not cheap (17x) versus other REITs, but he still models 27% growth rate. So on price to growth, still very much works.

He does not own real estate - it is interest rate sensitive. There are a couple of office real estate companies that they're watching for a bottom. He has been looking at this company but is concerned about the cost structure part due to patient care which can be tough on expenses.

Neutral. Valuation's OK. Right point in the ecosystem. Retirement residences are a structurally growing part of the market. But you're more beholden in the short term on individual capital allocations, which are fine for this name.

It's more a question of do you want to be in REITs in the first place? Instead, you probably want to focus on utilities.

Good place to be. One of the top-performing REITs in the space. Lots of tailwinds in the sector, especially after Covid. High on the list of companies that pensions or private equity may take private.

Falling interest rates makes dividend stocks like this attractive. Also, the populating is aging and will need retirement residences, which are undersupplied. CSH's occupancy rate is high-80's% and he predicts around 95% in a year. They pay a near 5% dividend yield and have growth as they build 3-4 homes.

Does not own shares, or any real estate REIT companies. Rising interest rates, and Covid-19 pandemic have been very hard on REIT companies. Retirement homes continue to rise in demand, but not investing at this time. 

Upscale to mid-market retirement homes. Premier operator. Demographic wave. 80+ age cohort in Canada will grow 4.3% per year for the next 20 years. Limited new supply of 1%, and there's already a deficit of housing. Occupancy of 86%, on path for 95% by end of next year. Every 1% of occupancy equals over $8M in revenue. Great path to increase NAV. Compelling supply/demand backdrop in favour of landlords. Yield is 5%.

He's shifted investments from multi-family units to retirement. Canadians are aging and will need home. There's a shortage. It's in an unregulated sector, so rental rates can increase. Likes this because CSH makes homes, not long-term care. Occupancy rate is now 86%, and he predicts 90% by year's end, then above 90% in 2025. This organic growth will increase cash flow.

Demand/supply is what stands out, and recovery in demand. Over-supply of retirement homes going into pandemic, almost non-existent today. Finally seeing baby boomers as prime renters for its homes. Next decade will see big demand growth. Occupancy finally at 85% on road to 95%, compared to peak of 93%. Big 18% discount to NAV. Operates quite well. Yield is 5%.