Joshua VargheseChartwell Retirement ResidencesCSH.UN.TOBUYOct 08, 2024

Likes the industry on long-term demographics, and they're a leader. Great brand. Good place to have $$ over the next 5-10 years.

She owns Chartwell instead, because all their homes are private homes with no government units. Likes the aging demographic and there's a shortage of retirement homes. Also, there are few beds being added.  CSH's occupancy rate is above 95% vs. below 80% during Covid. CSH is buying companies and selling old properties. 

Focused exclusively on private-pay retirement side. Great growth story. Discounted valuation. Over 95% occupied and going higher. Margins increasing, which means double-digit compounded annual earnings growth rate through 2028. Yield is 3.05%.

Great fundamentals including a 4% CAGR, an aging population, boast leading occupancy of 95%, so can raise rents by 4%, while keeping expenses below 4%. Margins are improving. Are in the sweet spot. Sees a lot of upside.

Follows quite closely. Has owned in the past, but not currently. Being a REIT, it's going to grow aggressively by developing projects and buying other companies. So in a downturn in the economy, such as the pandemic, it won't have retained any capital. Instead, they'll have to raise equity, and that's really dilutive to shareholders at a really bad time.

If you're a corporation in the real estate space, you control your destiny a little more.

Phenomenal growth in the space. NAV is his firm's "north star", and the north star just keeps moving. On track to 95% occupancy, at 93% right now. Acquiring homes in an accretive manner. Sees great growth over the next year.

Most favourable sector among the REITs is probably seniors housing like CSH.UN. That sector has risks, such as liability issues during pandemic. Occupancy pretty close to objective of 95%. Demographics are in its favour, people will move there because they need to not because they want to. This would be the one she'd pick to consider.

Supply/demand in the space is good. People usually move in to these places around age 80, and 2025 is the very beginning of baby boomers turning 80. This should really drive demand. Properties are hard to build, also tough to operate, so you really need good management. Entirely retirement, so a little more risk but also more upside. Does better when things in the sector are good.

SIA has a mix of retirement and long-term care, which is government funded, so it's always full. More bond-like, not a lot of growth but really predictable. Does better when things are weaker in the sector.

Since Covid very little new development in the space, yet we all keep getting older. Likes it here a lot. Continued visibility to 3 years of upside. 90% occupancy, with target of 95%. Sees continued growth, especially in Quebec. 

They're the best Canadian operator in this space, but there are many sophisticated private ones as well. The competition is fierce. Also, it will get harder to staff these places. Thirdly, there's the uncertainty over interest rates. He looked at during the pandemic and knew it would do well after the pandemic, but passed for these reasons. CSH has done well since then and will continue to do well, but isn't sure what will drive it much higher. It's a steady eddy, a good company, but unfortunately one he passed on.

Great story. Limited supply. Canada is vastly under-invested in seniors' retirement housing. See his Top Picks.

91% occupancy, aiming for 95% by year's end, which is very high-margin growth. Great position to add to portfolio in an accretive way. Still lots of upside. He expects Q1 report will show positive balance sheet developments.

There's talk that the stock could break out of its current range, possibly. But he wonders about the direction of interest rates both here and abroad. Either hold if you already own, or buy on dips. Good job if you already own.

Sees more upside from here. Occupancy levels have crept back up to over 90%. Fantastic demand profile, over 4% CAGR. New construction is near-low.