A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Copper? This has seasonality usually from around the middle of October right through until April of each year.

Passive or Active Investing? He is very biased towards active investing, because there are ways that active investors can make additional profits in the markets, by using a combination of seasonality, technicals as well as considering fundamentals. The key is, if you are willing to spend the time to look at what you are doing in the investment area, then you can outperform the market. But you have to know what you are doing and be very, very attentive to what you are actually holding.

Play natural gas through ETF’s or through companies? There are lots of opportunities either through the commodity or individual stocks. For example if you want to buy a natural gas in the US, the most actively traded ETF is UNG. A Canadian ETF would be ZJN-T, which is a basket of gassy stocks plus some oil and gas equipment stocks. Arc Resources (ARX-T), Painted Pony (PPY-T) Peyto (PEY-T) are gassy stocks. The key is you want to be in stocks that are going to be showing the strongest seasonality at right around this time of year. Some of these are forming some really interesting patterns.

Markets. This has been a well anticipated correction, and not any more serious than umpteen others that we have had in the past. His focus is on the fundamentals and the fundamentals, particularly south of the border, are quite good. In fact Canada is doing better than he had anticipated. It seems to be handling low oil prices with a minimum damage so far. Our trade numbers and employment numbers are better than everybody anticipated. This is actually a time that people should be picking away at stocks they like. He focuses a lot on dividend paying stocks and the telcos have just walked through this period as have the utilities. Markets are more volatile, but the markets are different now than what they were a few years ago. There are a lot of big players in the market and a lot of them depend on volatility to make money. If there is no volatility, they will create it if they possibly can. His view is that you get good positions, hold them and add to them when you can.

China. He considers certain concerns to being over the horizon, in other words it is something that might happen. Doesn’t see the Chinese economy collapsing. It is a managed economy. They can push a few buttons and a couple of million people will be out working somewhere. They have huge foreign exchange reserves and still have lots of capacity. It is going to grow at a slower pace simply because it is changing gears, but it is not going to go into any kind of a negative. 10 years ago it was growing at 7%, and now it is only growing at 6%.

Markets. There has been a very long run in the bull market for the last 7 years. Most of the pullbacks have been very modest at 5%-7%, and a few weeks later we have been back at the highs. This pullback has a different tone to it. There are greater issues with the central one being China, their stock market and their economy, which has an impact on commodity prices, that impacts Canada and Canadian prices. We don’t really know what the data is in China and what the economy is doing. The Chinese government can only support the stock market for so long. He believes their economy really is slowing. He expects a period of heightened volatility, but also some great opportunities. When we see situations where the market sells off a lot and big, high-quality, blue-chip companies, that are not impacted by commodities or China or what is happening in Europe, that can be a great opportunity for investors with some cash.

Canadian Banks? He favours US banks. The US economy is improving at a greater rate, and the housing market is improving there. In Canada there are probably some downside risks in housing and Canadian banks have large mortgage businesses. Also, Canadian banks would have more exposure to energy through loans to corporations in the energy sector. Also, has exposure to the Alberta economy, which is going to be under some pressure. The earnings torque on the US side over the next few years is going to be better.

Markets. A 5-point checklist that investors should be thinking about right now. 1.) Don’t Sell stocks just because the price has gone down. 2.) It is important to be diversified. (He likes to own 25-30 of the best companies in industries that he wants to be in.) 3.) Focus on Buy, Hold and Monitor. 4.) Choose products that people use every day. (It gives comfort and a margin of safety when there is a market correction.) 5.) Have 5 or 6 stocks that are ready to go. (He is always researching new ideas and for valuations (not price) that is he is hoping for.)

Canadian banks. Which one? Banks are incredibly cheap in Canada and earning a great return on capital right now. A lot of them raised their dividend. Oil/gas exposure is not a problem. The housing market is not an issue and their mortgages are guaranteed by CMHC in any case. He likes Toronto Dominion (TD-T), National (NA-T), Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T) and Royal (RY-T). He would pick one or 2 of these names and hold them for the long-term.

Markets. The action in the last month or so is an inherently healthy process. Bull markets really do climb a wall of fear, and while the US market has been strong for a couple of years, it really hasn’t had any fear to counterbalance it. The playbook that central banks have is to flood the system with liquidity, and that just means the market continues on for another couple of years very, very strong. He has been very, very light on energy, and almost entirely absent on resources.

Currencies. The majority of the damage has been done to the loonie. It is going to be a while before the Cdn$ recovers. Thinks we will see a $.70 dollar, before we see a $.80 dollar. We are the only normal petrocurrency globally, the only country producing oil and has a currency worth talking about. Unless you think oil is going back to $70, our dollar is not going back to parity.

Markets. Recently visited Calgary and found the mood was very pessimistic. Lots of companies cutting back and laying off staff, and trying to rationalize costs. Feels we are close to bottoming which is a good sign. Lots of people laid off, mood was very grim,. Housing hasn't been very impacted very much. Restaurants aren't very busy. Not great in Calgary.

Supply/Demand in the US. Inventory numbers are higher than expected. IEA showing that Q2 was the highest, oversupplied period that we had, over 3 million barrels in supply, but now we are getting closer to the 1.5 million dollar supply level. The good thing is that the US is finally pulling back in producing. Feels we are past the worst part of the oversupply situation.

How to pick the right companies in the energy sector? Recommends modelling them and looking at the commodity price. Look at their net-backs, their operation margins. Look at their cash flow and see if they are able to meet all the obligations for that cash flow. Look at that stress test to help determine how they are able to meet that stress in different environments. Look at their debt level and credit level.

Market. The market is throwing the baby out with the bathwater now, and this is where you get the chance to pick up some great quality companies, that have been oversold.