A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Markets. We haven’t seen a correction since 2008, and we are finally in one. The market is just adjusting to new levels. Every day investors are being buffeted by news, whether it is Europe, the slowdown in China, Canadian energy pressure, and even fears about possible interest rate hikes in the US. This comes at a period when valuations were getting a little bit stretched. We are seeing adjustments, and adjustments are never smooth. Thinks we could be in this period for a little while. In this sort of environment, he is picking up companies that he already owns or would like to own, with a predetermined price he has in mind to either initiate or nibble away at a position. This is a real opportunistic market, and a time when you should be positioning portfolios for the next 3-5 years. He has small positions in both energy and mining.

Markets. She finds this correction no different than most corrections. This cycle is obviously different than previous ones in the sense that it is much shallower and the growth is much slower, but the stock market is going to reflect that. Historically in the cycle you buy defensive names, and you slowly rotate into more cyclical names. She is not 100% sure this is the kind of cycle we are going to have this time, but other than that the market is flowing around, not unlike others cycles. Because it is such a slow growth cycle, it will be reflected in what kind of stocks do well. China problems are a big part of why we are having this correction. She is pretty much ignoring and not investing in energy and mining.

Canadian Banks? Earnings were better than what she had expected. The reality is that US investors are basically Shorting our banks, which is why they can’t get any love. The Shorting has been great for them. They made a lot of money on the currency if not necessarily on the banks. Fears about exposure to the oil industry, the possible collapsing of the Toronto and Vancouver real estate market; all of those things are why the US investors are Shorting. As long as they continue to insist on Shorting them, she would stay away.

Gold. This has been under pressure because it trades off the US$, and the strong US$ has made gold less attractive. It is not a bad counter trade against the equities in the last little while. On very weak equity days, gold has been strong. (She has a little bit of Detour Gold (DGC-T).)

Markets. Last Monday we had a flash crash. Quality stocks that should not have had that kind of volatility in some cases had no bid. You will have these periods during high panic. We had an 18% world correction since the highs. He was looking for 10-15%. Effectively we are in a bit of a bear market. He thinks this will play out over a number of months. We have had effectively 0% interest rates for 7 years and barely eked out 2% growth. The economy is not healthy. He thinks they will raise interest rates and then find they have to cut again.

The S&P is about 60% of the Dow in Market Cap. The S&P is more diversified, however. The Dow has been underperforming because it has less tech and biotech.

Educational Segment. Fees Related to ETFs and their Impact on Returns. Regulations regarding performance require you publish the gross of fee returns to the public. This is because there are various fee classes. You have to back out fees to see what you are actually paying. iShares is about 54%, BMO 27%, and Vanguard is 7% of the ETF market. He mentions the ones that are 80% of the market more often. He has a bias towards BMO, however because he prefers the way they do covered calls, for example. He prefers equal weights to market weights. MERs are not the whole story. There are cost of trade, acquisition cost (spread), and tracking error as well, which all impact your actual returns.

Markets. What’s going on in China is having a major impact on global markets and markets tied closely with commodities. When the commodity super cycle took off in 2002, the five largest banks in the world were North American and European and now they are all Chinese and have grown those assets ahead of GDP. He thinks there is a bit of an unwind going on now and he does not know if it will end quietly. Trend lines have been broken on all global markets. Typically you get a re-test of the highs and then things roll over. He thinks we are seeing the downside of a business cycle. He is trying to diversify away from commodities. He would use any bounces to sell commodities. He is cautious and sells gradually.

He is not a currency trader. Longer term he is negative on the Canadian dollar because he is negative on the commodity cycle. The Canadian dollar continues to be vulnerable.

Markets. Thinks we are still in a long-term bull market. These corrections generally take some time to work out. There is a consolidation phase that has to take place and we are into that phase now. Over the next month or so, we will come out of it and will resume the bull market again. Bear markets are caused by recessions and there is no sign of a recession out there. Showed 3 charts.

Chart #1 showed the Fed balance sheet versus household debt (as a percentage of personal income) with numbers going in opposite directions for quite a while. In 2008 the whole US economy sort of collapsed on the back of too much debt in the consumer. The Fed flooded the market with capital, and they are still pushing capital into the system. However, the consumer took the cash and paid down debt. (This was the right thing to do.)

Chart #2 shows the US$ versus commodities. It showed the US$ going up and the CRB commodity Index going down. The strength of the US$ coincided with the weakness in the commodity market. This can get out of whack. You get a real divergence, not based just on supply/demand, but supply/demand caused by a currency that is extraordinary in its movement.

Chart #3 showed the median line with a 1 Std. deviation on either side and a 2 Std. Deviation lines on the outsides. 1997 to 1999, was a period with the Asian currency crisis and it fell off, but wasn’t a major correction. 2001 showed a full blown bear market, and this happened in 2008. We are now back where it looks more like 2012-2013, which was the start of the Greek European crisis. Thinks we are much closer to that scenario where we are in the area of being in a Buy zone. We have sold off enough that some of the discrepancies (the overvaluations) have not been compensated for by the market. The next cycle should be a Growth cycle rather than an Income cycle.

Markets. He is not a market timer. His style is to buy good businesses at attractive prices. Holding about 3% cash in his portfolios. His advice to investors would be to not panic. Business and the economy are still good. Let the volatility provide you with opportunities if you’ve got cash, but don’t be panicked into doing something that you might regret 6 months from now. He likes consumer related stocks along with tech. You can start to maybe nibble if we get another downturn in oil prices. Choose the companies with a strong balance sheet. Look for the ones that have fallen the least, not the ones that have fallen the most.

REITs. Is the potential rising interest rate environment hitting the sector too hard? It could be that people have overcompensated for the anticipated rise in interest rates. Concurrent with a rise in interest rates, generally, is better economic activity so your CAP rate is going to change and it is going to change unfavourably as rates go up. But your rent increases might be easier to obtain, and your vacancy rates are going to be lower. Higher interest rates are not the absolutely worst thing that can happen to the REIT sector.

Markets. Did some buying on Monday morning when the markets fell. The interesting thing was that the Treasury market wasn’t really responding that much, which was kind of unusual. Usually when you see markets plunging like that the Treasury market really rallies. It had already rallied in anticipation of the crash. Has seen growing signs that you have to be concerned and worried about what was going on. Credit spreads globally were widening, and often times the bond market is the clue that often eventually trips up the stock market. We saw the premarket spikes in the VIX, which was a good sign. It felt like a short-term bottom. As a general rule, when we have the V type recovery that we had, you often will have a retest. Everyone is sort of keying off 2 things right now, the Chinese economy and oil prices. Thinks the boat got tilted too far to one side, enough people fell out of the boat and that caused the prerequisite bounce back. What you really have to pay attention to is the emerging markets, and China is viewed as one of those developing markets. It is not just China. The emerging markets, now count for over half the GDP. With the currency moves we have seen recently, the pressures are growing. To some extent the Chinese are being painted unfairly with a value in their currency. The currency is up 29% year-over-year, and the Chinese were probably anticipating that the Federal Reserve Board was likely to raise interest rates, so wanted to put a bit of downward pressure on the currency to offset that, when the feds raised rates, you would like to have a continuation of the strength of the US$, with a move higher in the Chinese currency as well.

Energy stocks? Now is the right time to buy energy stocks. Investors are full of fear. It is exceptionally difficult and costly to get oil out of the ground. Saudi Arabia is going broke doing it. Pessimism is pretty high, and there are some really great companies out there. If you have a 2 year view, and buying good quality companies, not just the ones that are giving you dividends, you will make exceptionally high returns.

Markets. He has never seen the market so oversold as it was on the weekend. Has trouble with the 10% correction. The rally back to uneven has to be longer than 24 hours. Doesn’t think it was a correction, but doesn’t know what it was. If you look at the cause of it on Monday, a couple of hedge funds in the US along with the US$, were quite offside and they were going to shut down the position to hedge that position, and shorted the S&P 500. We have to look at our conventional way of valuing stocks. It is different this time. Stock markets are not driven by analysis; they are driven basically by investor behaviour. We have all kinds of issues in the marketplace now. We have to re-evaluate things and realize that markets are driven by weather, terrorism, geopolitical events, etc. 84% of trades are done by computer trading and only 16% are done by individuals. We have to be looking at stock charts because it tells you what the actions of investors were, throughout that time period of looking at the chart. Investor psychology and investor behaviour is what now drives the marketplace.