A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Markets. Equity markets in the States will see increased volatility due to the debates. It is a buying opportunity because we could be in a stronger position by year end. Clinton is a know entity. Trump is such an unknown. We have had various ideas floated by Trump in an inconsistent platform. There is no leadership in his background so we have no idea how the markets would respond if he won.

Market. It is really, really tough to find yield, and he is telling people that they have to look at things like emerging market bonds, because traditional bonds are just not paying anything. He wouldn’t be surprised if a person investing in traditional bonds, actually realized a negative yield of return over the next half decade or decade. The risk/reward ratio is clearly tilted in favour of reward. Virtually all of the governments globally are not likely to go bankrupt, so in terms of the solvency of the underlying debt issuer, there is no problem. He wouldn’t be surprised that if a generation from now that we could still be talking and waiting for an interest rate hike to normalize. Ultimately, if you are a dividend investor, you are investing in stocks. That is a slippery slope and suggests you deal with these with caution.

Explain ETFs. If you understand what a mutual fund is, an ETF is a hybrid between a mutual fund and a stock. You get the diversification of a mutual fund, as well as the ease of ownership and benefits. They trade like a stock and you can Buy them like a stock. ETFs are generally a fair bit cheaper than mutual funds.

Behavioural Finance? We are all guilty of heuristics, basically shortcuts. Making quick, snap decisions, as opposed to longer term stop, wait, being thoughtful. If you can become more self-aware of the biases that you might have, hopefully you can rein them in a bit and do better.

Low Cost Mutual Funds? If you can find a good, low cost mutual fund, go to town. He has no problems with mutual funds, his concern are the costs.

Optimum number of holdings for a seven-figure portfolio? He doesn’t know if there is an optimal number, but it is a big number, whatever it is. Why he recommends ETFS or mutual funds is that most of them will have literally hundreds of holdings in one name. Therefore, if you have 6 ETFS in your portfolio, even if it is a 7-digit portfolio, you literally have over 1000 names. You can’t reliably replicate that using individual securities.

Gold. He moved most of his clients to having a 4% stake in gold at the beginning of the year. Gold hit its bottom at around the beginning of the year, and has been moving up ever since. He likes it as a diversifier, and believes you should have a little bit, 3%-5%.

Market. Valuations are really high, and it is really hard to be buying. Trump closing in on Hillary is not good. However, stocks are far cheaper than bonds and many asset classes. Thinks we are in a situation where 2 things are happening. We can still have multiple expansion because we are in this low interest rate environment for a very long period of time. Also, we are hearing better news and seeing good barometers, such as FedEx as a bellwether, as well as better volumes on rails. That could be supporting some top line expansion, which we really haven’t seen for the last couple of years. You have to be very careful and selective in what you buy. Stocks are still a good deal if you buy them at the right time. Feels the market still has an upward bias if Hillary still leads in the polls. Of the 2, Trump would probably be in favour of stimulus spending, but both of them will do a lot of that. That is what is needed to get us out of this very low interest rate environment, which will take many, many years.

A vehicle for holding cash while waiting for an opportunity? He would recommend a high interest savings account or a Money market account.

Oil sands pipelines. Native communities just made a strong showing as opposing this. Ultimately that stuff matters, but is not sure that this is going to be the thing that moves the needle. He is of the view that what will drive these will ultimately be the price of the commodity.

Market. He didn’t think anyone really thought the US Fed was going to raise rates. This has re-accelerated the game that has been going on in the market for a long time, will they or won’t they. As we approach the 4^th quarter and the December meeting, people are really beginning to wonder is this really going to happen given as to how cautious they are. Also, the economy seems to be slowing in the US. The economic data started to deteriorate a couple of weeks before, and with the 3^rd and 4^th quarter looking weaker than at the beginning of the year, it may be a challenge to raise rates this year, which would be very significant because it would just keep the uncertainty going. While it has inflated asset prices somewhat, it has also increased volatility. Thinks investors should just keep playing the strategy of trying to find equities that pay nice dividends and try to get a yield that way.

Telcos. If interest rates were to go up, would you sell, and repurchase them later? If interest rates were to go up, yes he would sell them, but with the Fed delaying a rate hike, you could leave this for at least 2-3 months. Maybe sell them in December, because the probability is quite high that the Fed will raise rates finally, and it will be a selloff much like it was last year. He would start selling Canadian holdings first and US holdings a little bit later.

Cdn$ short and long-term? Long-term, it is very highly correlated with oil prices, and for the first 6 months of this year, it pretty well walked in lockstep with oil. In the last month or 2, it kind of divorced from that and did its own thing. Today, there was a very big move. Overall the direction is down. It won’t be dramatically down because it had a bit of a selloff. Thinks we are looking at $1.33, maybe by year-end. It is not likely to improve as our economy is weaker.

Why are pipelines, utilities and telcos affected by interest rates? The reason is, they have very little growth and tend to pay out earnings in the form of dividends. As a result, because rates are so low, those companies, cash flows and dividends have become so prized right now that investors are trading at a premium to the market. In Canada, a 1% move typically corresponds to a 10% reduction in price on pipelines and utilities. However, that doesn’t really impact companies until you get to a certain threshold level of around 3.5% of a bank of Canada rate 10-year.

Markets. He does not know if we are climbing the wall of worry or if things are being inflated by election worries. He does not think we have seen the fallout of Brexit. That is unavoidable. There are always plenty of things to spook investors. There is a definite political trend in effect out there that is not positive for markets. A lot of money is in the stock market and it is very expensive. He is being very prudent. He is going to wait for volatility in the markets to subside before moving into his favourite names.