A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Canadian financials? Last year, even though earnings were pretty good, everyone was worried about where growth was going to come from and what was going to happen to the overextended consumer. The banks fell about 10%. This year has been the exact opposite. The banks have had a pretty good run. Banks, from a long term perspective, are a great hold, and are basically trading in line with their historical average of about 12-14 times earnings. You get a great dividend, between 3.5% and 4.9%. It wouldn’t surprise him that if there is an issue with rates going up, banks could be hurt. Lifecos haven’t done nearly as well as banks, and are now trading below BV. You get a higher dividend than what you typically get from banks, and picking them up at a lower multiple. Also, they have a larger business tied to the wealth management space, so there is less concern with interest rates.

Business development companies (BDCs)? A very broad category which goes all the way from private equity to private debt. The amount of leverage they can have can get up to a level of 200% or more, or more recently at 25%-50%. His firm has been looking a lot at private markets and private debt space. It is a great opportunity. Regulations have made it very difficult for the banks to lend to certain areas, so they are very slow in acting. He has been able to find a lot of alternative strategies paying in the 6%-7% range. Two of the better names are Apollo (AINV-N) giving a 14% distribution and BDC (?). You really have to look at the individual names, because the characteristics of that sector are weighted.

REITs or energy for dividends of 4%-6%? If you are looking to try to generate income, REITs are probably a better play, because the energy sector is going to be more of a reflection of what is happening with the energy price, giving you a lot more volatility than what you would see in the REIT sector.

Which bank pays the best dividend for the next 3-5 years in a TFSA? The National (NA-T) pays the highest at 4.9%. He likes this in that it hasn’t moved as much as Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T). If ranking in terms of quality, Toronto Dominion (TD-T), Bank of Montréal (BMO-T). In terms of more compelling valuations and upside, you have Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T), CIBC (CM-T) and National (NA-T). His one caution with CIBC is that they made a major acquisition in the US, so will likely do an equity raise. If you can wait for that equity raise to happen, this would probably be a little cheaper.

Markets. People are worried about market valuations. He thinks they are reasonable considering interest rates. He looks for companies with great cash flow. The market is up because corporate profits are up. Both are up 40%. He thinks corporate profit will increase in 2017. He admits we are creating asset bubbles in specific areas. Sovereign debt is very expensive. The S&P PE multiple it just about where it should be historically. He sees more potential in Europe. You will get multiple and profit expansion. The US is attractive because of the lower risk.

Deflationary Periods from a Macro Perspective. Negative interest rates are inflationary. They create a disincentive for corporations and individuals to spend. Companies generating stable cash flow are good investments under these conditions.

Preferred Shares. Be careful what kind. Floating rate preferreds have gone down. The coupon gets reset. Fixed coupons have done well, but be careful of the credit risk. It is a good way to supplement the income and to diversify the risk.

Mortgage REITs. Mortgage rates are close to historic lows. If they go back up it would benefit the US mortgage REITs. Income is declining because the end of the yield curve is declining. If they go back up, then so should the mortgage REITs.

Canadian Markets. There are a lot of areas that are so cheap that they just can’t get out of their own way. There are a lot of good yield proxies, some of the REITs that are paying 7%-9%; some of the industrial companies with really good dividends will probably have some very good upside. Then there are those that are not cheap, but have very good dividends, and even better EPS growth. There is a lot of cash on the sidelines. This is a market that is likely to go higher.

Economy. We are in an environment where we are going to have low interest rates for quite some time. The Fed will raise rates every chance they can, but it still does not replace the fact that there is “central bank” buying out there, and we are in a deflationary world which will take some time.

(A Top Pick Oct 2/15. Up 53.27%.) Emera instalment receipt (EMA.IR). This is something where you can put one 3^rd down, get paid effectively 12% on a note. At that time, he thought we were heading into a tough macro as well as a tough time for the stock market. We are at a time right now where investors have to put down the other two thirds to get the whole play on it, but he is not interested in that. He recently got out of this.

Oil Stocks. Western Canada needs around $60 oil to really work. In Cdn$ terms we almost hit that about a month ago, and that is enough to make people feel good and to believe that it is no longer a total disaster. Then the oil price slips, but the feeling is an awful lot better. But it doesn’t mean that we are actually off to the races.

Gold. There has been such an amazing move in gold. He likes to look at this in Cdn$ terms, and we are really at all-time highs. If you have your gold mine in Canada with the Cdn$ costs, you are very profitable and you had a good run. Shouldn’t be too overenthusiastic.

Markets. So far we have seen pretty good earnings from some of the companies that have reported to date. Overall he is happy and, if anything, has probably seen a bit of an earnings trough going back a quarter or 2. Starting to see some acceleration both from revenue and earnings across the board. Valuation on Canadian banks, especially when compared to the US, are sky high, and is something he is watching, but feels we will see some kind of pick up in inflation going over the next 12 months which will increase interest rates and which will be positive for bank earnings.

Gold. Thinks the world is going to look at central banks and realize that they don’t have full control the way most people think they do. As a result, gold is probably going to become a currency, not just a commodity. At the same time, you might also see the US$ being strong.