A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Overweight in the Energy Sector? He has almost no cash in his fund right now. The risk reward ratio in Energy is incredibly compelling. Everything is getting ready to move. It is a case of sector allocation, rather than stock selection. He has moved a lot into the oil services sector. Seasonality is in his favour. It all comes down to US oil inventories. We are days or weeks away from that number going negative. Collective light bulbs in people’s minds will start to go off.

Canada/US Country Allocation. He wants to allocate largely to the US. He is fed up of having to worry about takeaway capacity, phasing out of oil sands, and border taxes. He has two Canadian oil producers and five from the US. They have a higher growth rate.

Fracking Sand. It is not beach sand. It has to be the right size and round. These names have fallen greatly this month. These companies are finding customers are now begging them to add capacity. You can buy a company where the product has doubled in price and yet they have sold off to half their price. (See his Top Picks today)

Natural Gas is always a call on the weather. February was the warmest February on record. He thinks Gas will average $3, or no change. Now is a crummy time to own Nat Gas stocks. Until June there is not really a catalyst to get these stocks going.

Markets. The budget does not make him change how he wants to allocate capital. This is the second budget in a row they talked about this badly needed commitment to infrastructure, but nothing has happened yet. The government should be careful in the future. There was speculation the government would increase the inclusion rate on capital gains, which they did not. Advisors had been suggesting people crystallize capital gains, but which was unnecessary. Don’t make investment decisions be based on tax and legal speculation.

Where to park US cash temporarily. You don’t get paid much for owning US cash.

Market. The market has basically gone up on thin air since the US elections. Even if tax cuts and infrastructure go through, they take a long time to filter through to the bottom line. The market may be realizing that those things are more difficult to implement than initially thought, and is getting quite stretched. He doesn’t think any US policies are going to be able to create strong sustainable growth. We still live in a very slow growth world with some deflationary forces, aging population, excess capacity and we are going to remain in the low interest rate environment. The market has gotten way ahead of itself relative to the growth rate. He is sitting on about 16% cash in his portfolios, way larger than what he has ever had, and waiting for whatever triggers a pullback such as European elections. The best way to make money is to be patient and buy when things are cheap.

Tonight’s show was a special on the Federal Budget 2017. Viewers were to call in as to how the new budget would affect them. Out of the 3 panelists, only one, Christine Poole, was actually in the investment area. In the first 30 minutes, there were no questions on any individual stocks, and very little discussion on the market. Also, with 3 panellists, it was very hard to track and cover who was saying what. Because of this, I have decided to forgo doing tonight’s show. Bill.

Market. This is an expensive market. Of course, valuation is not necessarily a timing tool, but you do have to keep your seatbelt fastened. The market is up 10% since election day, up 15%-16% just in the last year. PEs are the highest they have been since the dot.com bubble. Dividend yields are trying to hold on to the 2% level, so by that level, things are pricey. We are in a situation where interest rates are going up. The Fed has hiked 3 times, and have promised to hike twice more this year. Higher interest rates are never a positive for the market. People have to be cautious here. Short-term traders are looking at what is going on in Washington. The market has grown like a bat out of hell since election day, on the hopes and prospects of very progressive policies from the new administration. However, that is not a slam-dunk, as the Republicans are not united. A lot of strategists are now looking at what is going on with Obamacare. If they feel the Republicans, who did not support Obamacare, are not able to repeal it, what does that mean for Trump’s success in getting the rest of his progress policies enacted anytime soon?

Market. We are in a bull market. When corrections come in a bull market, they are swift and can be painful for a few days, but are generally over pretty quickly. People have made a big deal about not having a 1% down move in over 100 days. If you look at history, this has happened about 10 times over the last 30 years, and the returns that came 3 months, 6 months, 9 months afterwards were way above average. When you have long periods of time when volatility has been low as it has been, and then you have that 1% day, people tend to think of it as a shakeout. The most difficult thing in a bull market is to stay positioned. As a market analyst, from a whole bunch of different angles, the market continues to look very constructive, and it would be healthy to have a few sloppy days. The key themes that are in this market, are firmly in place. In Canada, about 50% of stocks are in long-term positive uptrends that has been slowly rising. In the US, it is about 66%. In the last 2 months, when the market has been treading water, the average hedge fund has gone from 110% to 115% Long to 80% Long indicating there has been tremendous profit taking over the last 2 months. This tells you how strong the bid is under the market because there has been really no downside.

Energy. He got quite bullish on energy in Jan/Feb 2016 as breadth started to improve. In the last 6 weeks, breadth for the energy sector started to contract. Oil consolidated sideways for a couple of months. In energy, in almost all cases, they break down from there. You are facing a big headwind at the sector level. Fracing has made energy a mass manufacturer. That is why production of oil in the US is up 700,000 barrels since last February, and storage is at an all-time high. If you want to be in energy, which is a tough space right now, you want to be in a low-cost producer that will be able to take share. He owns virtually no energy.

US defence stocks for a long-term hold? Defence is a theme he has been focused on for a couple of years. We have been coming off multiyear lows in growth in defence spending. There is going to be more defence spending going forward. He likes that the contracts are really long term and have a pretty good credit behind them. Also, it is the only type of company that never talks about what is coming next. Raytheon (RTN-N), General Dynamics (GD-N) and Lockheed Martin (LMT-N) are very attractive.

North American rails and Hunter Harrison? Transports were the 1^st group to roll over in the spring of 2015, and one of the 1^st groups to turn up in February in 2016 as the market started to repair itself. They’ve gotten a little sloppy recently. Within the group, you have the airlines, and a couple of the US airlines have gotten a little sloppy. There are a couple of rails that have become sloppier. When he looks at the group, Canadian National (CNR-T) is probably the most attractive, and looks very, very good. CSX (CSX-Q) has been the leader in the rally, and in the short run it may have been based on “buy the rumour, sell the news”, and is now pulling back, possibly to $38-$39.

G20 Statement. Although tepid, he thinks they are supporting free trade, but probably under a lot of duress from the first real official global meeting with the Trump policy being pushed towards the world. The US is the biggest economy in the world, so what they want tends to typically happen. This is why markets were concerned about the anti-trade, and the original reason why futures market sold off aggressively the night of the election. It is concerning. However, it is not measured in weeks and days or the next tick on the chart; it is a long-term strategic policy. While he is very optimistic and bullish on the need for lower taxes overall, he is concerned about the lack of trade. However, we have seen slower trade globally. Looking at the Baltic Dry Index and the freight rates that are being charged, they have been in a slow decline for years, so it is not anything new. If the biggest economy, the US, is not participating, there will be less trade globally. The US has a surplus against Canada and are not really fighting us, but they’ve made strong statements on softwood lumber as an example. They have a deficit against Mexico, which is where they want to improve and bring stuff and make America great again, and America 1^st. We are going to see lots of this for years to come.

Crude oil. He is not bearish in that we are going back to the $20s, but he wants to see what OPEC is going to do. There is some compliance, but it is Saudi Arabia that is more compliant than a lot of the other partners. There is some weakness in OPEC, which is what he expected. Oil shouldn’t be at $55, but should probably be closer to $45.