Today's rally after days of sharp selling It looked like blind buying across the board today, which makes him suspicious considering the geopolitical risk. How do you play the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war? Technically, we're in a downtrend. Today was a bear market bounce.
Shares are jumping after hours after their report He likes it. Cybersecurity is on the top of everyone's minds, especially given the Russian war. Despite a bloated PE, CRWD is pivoting from non-profitable to profitable operations by 2022.
The fundamentals are a little challenged. Their last earnings saw a slight miss and that resulted in volatility. In-flows back into tech overall show that people are comfortable with high PEs. However, this stock is approaching 52-week highs, so how further can this go? He's cautiously optimistic.
Disappointing employment numbers today and the tepid market response He was surprised by today's reaction to disappointing employment numbers, but it places Jay Powell in a shining light who is holding rates until employment rises. He supports Powell in holding these rates.
The S&P has been on a juggernaut rally, hitting 48 record highs this year so far and has doubled from the pandemic low of March 23, 2020. Worried about complacency? No, because the cost of protecting his portfolio is cheap (using overlays across his portfolio). Yes, shares have doubled from the pandemic low, so now take some profits. No, he would not sell stocks to buy protection like options.
The U.S. 10-year yield Has been discussed ad naseum and oversimplified. He'd rather look at credit spreads, boiling down to the Fed striking a balance between their tapering asset purchases and setting their target interst rates. When the high-yield credit market is spreading, it trickles down and correlates well with small businesses that haven't enjoyed the same access to credit like the big players.
The week in review There's a risk that the megacaps are priced for perfection, so going forward they may not have the same catalysts going forward. The market weakness we saw this week is a reversal of the previous attitude of "buy the rumour, sell the news." This recent pullback could set up nicely going into earnings season that we've just started.
It's uniquely positioned to draw in more sub-growth to its core business from its new streaming-gaming business, which is icing on the cake for them. Detractors point to mixed results of this roll-out, but he sees upside here.
Their struggles over the last two years are well publicized, and are priced into the stock. The price they paid for GlobalFoundries is a concern, but more dangerous is management doing nothing as the walls close in. So, it's good they have a clear, cohesive strategy; they are dealing with chip shortages by dealing with it in-house.
Goldman Sachs made a big bullish call today He doesn't believe in catching falling knives, but in this case, he'd average in. LN is flirting with its 200-day moving average, so use that as support. People are likely to spend more on services and experiences, and LN is certainly a fine way to do this.
Is the tech trade over? The play isn't going all in cyclicals, so tech is still alive. Tech won't outperform during historically low rates as it did in 2020, huge returns won't repeat. Don't throw the baby out with the bathwater. That said, certain tech will perform--Facebook, Apple and Google are trading at high-20s PEs compared to Crowdstrike at 200-300x. Two subsets here. You can't say all tech is untradable. For example, Microsoft still holds value. Look for solid balance sheets and sustainable growth.