A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

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tech Big-cap tech is heading to serious growth slowdown. Software and services are investing a lot to buy growth while cloud companies invest a lot in capex.
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We need to focus on the consumer, because that's where we will see a driver to the economy in 2023. Main street doesn't care if Powell pivots. It is concerned with inflation. Consumer demand won't decline as fast as expected, which puts to risk the Fed's plans.
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tech Big-cap tech has the potential to grow earnings faster than industrials in a slow-growth economy. This is how she is anchoring her portfolio.
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There will be an economic contraction--it's the only way to combat inflation. The trajectory must be down, heading forward. ISM manufacturing is contracting at a much higher level than previous recessions.
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tech Mega-cap techs are defensive and worth investing in. But he wouldn't touch industrials like airlines, is suspicious of construction and machinery, and maybe logistics are defensive.
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oil He's bullish oil and sees oil going back up. Oil is a hedge if things go wrong as Powell raises rates. You have to carry oil at an overweight of 10% in a portfolio, double the S&P.
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Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Decade’s high inflation has been forcing Central Banks to tighten monetary conditions expeditiously, which in turn has forced equity valuations and demand lower, and to the Central Banks, the public enemy number one is inflation. We feel that if we begin to see any consistency in the flattening or decline of inflation in the second half that this will give the Central Banks good reason to adjust their expectations for monetary tightness, and in turn, this will ease demand destruction and valuation suppression on the financial market’s front. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

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REITs It's a stockpicker's market. Avoid retail and shopping centres. Look at industrial and warehouse REITs, a scarcity here and a scramble to build more capacity, though this space is getting pricey. Residential remains good, but offices no--too many vacancies.
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Data tells him that since mid-June we've merely been in a a bear market rally. These are common in recessions, lasting 24 days average and generating gains of 18%. Example: the 2000-01 recession saw eight bear market rallies of 10% or more and the 2008-09 recession saw six of them. He's been using this rally to sell riskier securities and to bolster our three equity portfolios with high-quality, downturn-resilient names across a variety of sectors, emphasizing companies that cater to customers’ needs (not wants). This includes companies with strong balance sheets and companies with a history of market outperformance in bear markets.
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We're in a sketchy environment and uncharted territory in this post-Covid world. You either fight the Fed or don't believe them. The data supports a soft landing more than most believe.
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Due to technical difficulties this show was not available on August 29, 2022
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Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. The Importance of Investing Even in the Tough Times. We can see that while both the US and Canadian dollars have averaged a low annual rate of inflation over the past 34 years (2.6% and 2.1%, respectively), these small erosions to purchasing power make a substantial difference over the long term. The same principle is applied to investing – while the TSX only returned a 3.1% annual real return and the S&P 500 a 5.5% annual real return over the past 34 years, this has amounted to a 6X (~$3.0 / $0.5) and 15X (~$6.0 / $0.4) out performance, respectively, above the dollar. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

COMMENT
Rates will go significantly higher to control inflation. They will likely go too high and lead to a recession, then start to decline. Actually the economy is probably in a recession now. As to large tech stocks, they have lots of free cash flow but could see earnings numbers come down and multiples may be higher than people think. We have been seeing a massive correction in risk premium.
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By now, we're all sick of inflation and maybe we're willing to let Jay Powell administer some strong measures. His speech last Friday was aggressive and brilliant, because it pushed rates up 0.25% on his words alone. Powell wants to instill fear in spending. He's supposed to be stern so that he cools down the economy. He's in a tough spot because employment is still high, but he has to do something. But he must avoid a wage-price spiral that would feed itself. Wages need to stop rising before he stops raising rates. Companies that pay dividends and have sound balance sheets will do well. Companies that do not, that lose money, better sell them.
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An historic analogue for the current market, based on research by technical analyst Larry Williams The 2000 DJ was an analog for 2018; both years were ugly with 2000 being the Dotcom Collapse with end-2018 seeing Powell hikes rates to stamp out nascent inflation. 2009 for 2020: markets collapsed in Q1, found a floor in March, then rebounded both years, during the Great Recession and Covid respectively. 2010 for 2021: similar charts though 2013 is a better fit. Push that forward to 2022 which could look like 2014; after running up in June/July, markets took a big hit in August, then rallied again through the end of the year (except a short, sharp pullback in October--be ready for that!--but that was caused by an Ebola scare). Therefore, the outlook for the rest of the year--especially November and December--is positive.
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