A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

COMMENT
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research.

Keys to Managing Your Portfolio: Keep costs low. This is unlikely to be a surprise to many at this point as it is well discussed and written about. It is worth repeating though, as over the long-term, fees can destroy the value of a portfolio. If you consider fees, taxes and tack on inflation, it can be very hard to just break even. Fees are one of the few items totally in an investor's control, so it is something all investors should keep a tight leash on. No all fees are bad but it is important to understand and be sure you are getting value for the fees paid.
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COMMENT

Editor's Note: The topic also includes wealth protection strategies. There is a lot of pessimism out there but the main source of optimism is the macro environment. Earnings are still quite strong and quarterly reports are still frequently providing positive guidance. There is also a strong jobs market. The U.S. balance sheet at the consumer level is pretty good. A recession is not necessarily needed before the market can move on. At present interest rate levels cash and bonds can be a bigger part of your portfolio. They will pay well in an uncertain economic environment. A whole lot of asset classes are working now.

COMMENT

Editor's Note: The question was on the Canadian banking sector. It is always a good sector but he would wait for a better entry level, although one to buy today is CIBC for the best risk/reward.

COMMENT
The current boom in AI stocks

The big names like Nvidia won't come down, but the laggards in this space will rally, like NXP, Intel and Qualcomm, if overall economic activity is stronger than expected. This could happen because the labour market remains strong.

COMMENT

Believes current market prices are presenting good buying opportunities for investors.
High quality companies with predictable cash flows are investors best friend.
Finding value in Japan, UK & Middle East.
Concentrated portfolio is best way to generate alpha for investors. 
Dividends are ok for investors - preference is for share buybacks or re-invested capital.

COMMENT
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research.

US Dividends For Canadians: Canadian companies may choose to pay US dividends for a few reasons. Although some companies are being traded in Canadian exchanges, their main operations are in the US. As a result, the majority of its profit and cash flow comes from the US dollars. Therefore, it is more efficient to pay shareholders directly in US dollars instead of converting back to Canadian dollars just for the sake of being listed in Canadian exchanges, which will incur additional expenses from currency conversion and hedges. Secondly, Canadian companies may want to attract a group of investors who want to earn income from US dollars without being subject to foreign exchange fees and currency fluctuation risks, allowing them to reinvest and purchase US securities.

In terms of taxes, Canadian investors get favourable treatment from this source of income, as dividends in US dollars paid by Canadian companies are considered similar to Canadian dividends. As a consequence, this would not be subject to the US foreign withholding tax of 15%, and the accountants just simply convert that US income source into Canadian dollars at an appropriate exchange rate to calculate investors’ total dividend income.
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COMMENT
Markets are basing.

His view on the world of stocks is very simple. They're going either up, down, or sideways. The sideways periods can be either topping or bottoming. Basing is the bottom part of the stock market cycle phase. We're in that phase now. The markets tread water, going up and down, not going anywhere for a while. 

COMMENT
NASDAQ 100.

His issue with the markets right now is that it's a concentrated market. For example, it's insane that NVDA is up about 25% today. Six stocks make up 50% of the NASDAQ. Market breadth is terrible. The advance/decline line is declining, which means there are fewer advancers than decliners overall. 

By itself, the NASDAQ looks good driven by those 6 stocks. But the broader picture shows that it can't last like that. We've seen this before, and it's called 2001 and late 2021. It's not a healthy market when most stocks are going down and a few are going up.

He's cautious.

COMMENT
Lots of NASDAQ 100 ETFs hitting highs today, so do I care about the narrow market?

You don't care if you're in that index or you're in those stocks. But let's take the example of TSLA. For a while, it could do no wrong. The PE ratio of 100x didn't bother people, because they said it's going up. But it rounded over and got ugly. These stocks get overvalued, and the crowd moves on.

You can trade the trend, but it's getting peaky. You don't want to be the last person to exit the subway.

TRADE
Oil.

Driven a lot by OPEC and politics. Likes it, but he's trading it. He's here for a good time, not a long time. Momentarily oversold. Might still be in a downtrend, but still has potential to bounce. He's regression trading right now. Trade it for a pop.

COMMENT
Is it poor advice to "hold onto a stock, but don't add more"?

Yes. If it's breaking support, you have to stop out. You have to have a discipline, whatever that is. But just holding because you bought it doesn't make sense to him. He's OK with holding stocks that are zig-zagging in a base. 

But when something breaks down, you shouldn't hold it. Give it 3 days to 3 weeks, but don't hold it forever. If it stays below your neckline, you have to sell. Once things waterfall, it gets ugly fast. 

No one wants to take a loss, so they hold on. Hold and hope is a bad strategy. Walk away, no matter how much it hurts.

COMMENT
Shorting stocks.

A 4% short position doesn't sound like a big factor to him. Most stocks have some sort of a short position.

WAIT
Natural gas.

It's at its support level and has not done anything yet. He's out of the trade. A little ugly. If you see recent peaks taken out and it moves up through those levels, it's game on. He wouldn't buy until it's started to show some turnaround.

COMMENT
Dangers of riding a trend.

Things can change, but don't predict, just prepare. For example, just because he observes the tech stocks being overbought, it doesn't mean he should go out and short them today. It just means he's a little cautious. The trend can be OK, but you have to prepare, just in case.

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