Market Commentary — Page 1275

Market Commentary

TOP PICK

Brookfield Renewable Power 6.132% bond 11/30/16. Likely to produce positive returns. It’s a company he likes. This could be part of a ladder.

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It seems that Fridays are particularly perilous. It seems 100-point moves don’t count any more. You can’t tell – by closing today be could be back to flat. You might not want to jump on one jobs number. People were expecting a great number and got a mediocre number. It’s the non-senses numbers that really count in the US job numbers. You should not ignore the good news – Canadian job numbers. Hungary is a small impact on Europe. It’s an indication that there’s work to be done. Hungary is going to need funds. You want to catch a good market day to do any selling. He is mostly adding a little bit on the bottom in this market. Negative on the gassy oils but starting to change his mind. Focuses on dividends and sells off a bit of low yield stocks.

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We should have seen the correction coming. There were warning signs. If we look at copper, it was one of the first things that made a bottom, well before the markets made a test in March. There has to be volume on a market climb. Over the last year every time the market goes down, the volume goes up.

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Has been buying selectively. When the market is like this you have to get back to fundamentals. It’s a great time to buy companies that aren’t expensive.

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Markets. We are in a cyclical recovery in a secular downtrend and this will cause a lot of volatility. Great environment for those who sell options. He is an earnings investor. He looks for stocks where the earnings are accelerating.

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S&P over 5 years: ’03 to ’08 you see a very strong bull market. We had a ‘V’ bottom followed by a strong up trend from ’09. We are now in a bull market. We broke a trend line from Jan ’09 to Apr’10. He thinks this will prove to be another correction from which we continue up.

COMMENT

Nat Gas: Is the most volatile commodity there is. It’s a function of the way it trades. It has really been in a bear market. Doesn’t believe in trying to catch the bottom. One way to play it is to sell options. Take an ETF and sell a put option to make 5-10%. It is probably not going too much lower.

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It’s a difficult market to find things you want to buy, but some things are getting down to prices where you want to buy. There are going to be more and more opportunities for people with a 3-5 year horizon. If prices go up substantially in the short term it is time to take money off the table.

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The word is volatility. Now we are in a range called 11,000 to 12,500. He is defensive in portfolios. If earnings don’t come through then watch out because the market will be over valued. This could be into next year, depending on the economy. Defensive stocks are the backbone of the economy. Principals are capital preservation and dividend growing stocks.

COMMENT

Bank preferreds: Likes resets (Reset rate based on a spread between Gov’t of Canada and initial rate) and floaters (tied to yield of short term money).

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6.1% GDP growth in the quarter and they hiked the rate a quarter point. Doesn’t know if they will accelerate the raising of the rate much this year. He got cautious in the funds because the market seemed over bought in April. Now he is back into the market buying some of what he sold. We continue to expand due to the stimulus plans but not at the same rate. This market was looking for a triggering event to go lower. The Europe situation is contained. He is looking at this as a buying opportunity. Maybe we will double bottom, but he didn’t want to sit on a whack of cash.

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Volatility is pretty much here to stay. We will be range bound for 4 or 5 months. It will depend on how things are played out with Greece. In the fall, things will start to move up slowly. We will bounce around between 11,000 and 12,000 for the TSX.

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Bank of Canada will raise rates (70-80% likely) according to the market. It is the right thing to do for Canada. There is some adversity because of Europe. Inflation is running at the high end of several bankers’ estimates. Real Estate values are increasing due to low rates and raising rates may be to head off a bubble. He is cautious for the last few weeks. Thinking about when to toe into the water. He will be slow to deploy.

PAST TOP PICK

(Top pick Jun 02/09) 3-month treasury Bills.

TOP PICK

Treasury Bills 4-Month. Take you through until the end of September, bottom of 4-year cycle. That bottom might be delayed until the beginning of October.

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We paraphrase the experts by hand, we watch the shows and write down what we understood from the experts’ comments. We are human and can make mistakes, help us fix any errors. If you see something that you know is not right or if there is a problem with the site, feel free to email us at : [email protected].

A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert(A Commentary)

A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert(A Commentary)

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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert(A Commentary)

Markets. (A Commentary)

S&P over 5 years:(A Commentary)

Nat Gas:(A Commentary)

A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert(A Commentary)

A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert(A Commentary)

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